### Summary and Insights The **Fractured Shaft** is a unique tradeable drop from Kerapac, the Bound (hard mode), introduced with *Elder God Wars Dungeon* on **July 27, 2021**, as a component in crafting the **Fractured Staff of Armadyl (FSoA)**. This item is central to high-level PvM because of the FSoA's unparalleled damage potential, making it consistently desirable in the Grand Exchange. The rarity is influenced by both Kerapac's challenging mechanics and drop rate constraints, further inflated by RuneScape’s maturing economy. Its historical price graph reflects RuneScape's economic shocks, content releases, and duping exploits. Initially capped by the **2.1B GP trade limit pre-Max Cash update**, its value has depended on the demand for the FSoA, PvM metas, and shifting market gold supplies. --- ### Price Analysis: Key Trends and Events #### Highlights from Historical Data 1. **Early Peaks (2021)**: In **July 2021**, the Fractured Shaft entered the Kerapac loot table with high hype, cushioning its price near the GE hard cap of **2.1B GP** as Warden-tier PvMers rushed to upgrade to the FSoA. Its price remained volatile but high until gold inflation and new boss releases diluted its exclusivity post-2021. 2. **Sharp Decreases (2022)**: Major downward trends began after **Duel Arena removal (January 2022)** and the **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** lead-up. Both events reallocated player priorities (e.g., gold farming and migration to separate economies). By November 2022, heavy PvM shifts steered prices below **700M GP**, reaching stabilization despite intermittent PvM profit spikes. 3. **Mid-2023 Rebound**: The **Necromancy skill release (August 7, 2023)** revitalized PvM activity as new combat mechanics overtook older gearsets. The Shaft rose to **near 900M**, particularly with Necromancy popularity keeping FSoA users in rotations for max DPS. 4. **Dives and Chaos (Late 2023-2024)**: The **November 2023 Red Portal abuse** and **Treasure Hunter rewards inflation (April 2024)** flooded GP into the market. Massive oversupply of cash and cheaper upgrades correlated with its stunning **280M GP crash in November 2024**. --- ### Current Price Prediction #### November 2024 Price: ~**280M GP** The recent GIM banking bug (duplicate GP + items) is a key driver of deflation in high-tier unique prices like the Fractured Shaft. Gold oversupply from **Treasure Hunter (April 2024)** and **max cash exploitation (May 2024)** further overcapitalized the economy, eroding Shaft profits as merchants liquidated assets for liquidity. --- #### Near-term Forecast (Dec 2024 - Mar 2025): 1. **Stabilization Range**: Prices may rebound slightly to **400-500M** as PvMers revisit Kerapac during the **December holiday meta** (boosted activity) but could face persistent downward pressure from oversaturated GP markets. 2. **Second Wave of Decline (March 2025)**: If Jagex enacts another combat update or introduces meta shifts (e.g., new weapon hierarchy), FSoA’s dominance may wane further. Expect **250-350M GP lows**, sustained by cheaper crafting costs reducing Shaft demand. 3. **Speculative Spike in Easter 2025?** Holiday-led PvM efficiency boosts and Treasure Hunter FSoA rereleases could drive brief speculative recovery to **550M GP+.** --- ### Historical Influences on Price Shifts: 1. **Inflationary Events**: - **January 2022 Duel Arena removal** → Large cash influx from PvP players. - **Jan 29, 2023 Scrimshaw dupe** → Burst liquidation of rare PvM loot. 2. **PvM Content Cycles**: - **Necromancy release (August 2023)** boosted PvM Technical users (demand resurgence). - Declines when events like **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** or simpler boss mechanics cannibalized Kerapac farming efficiency. 3. **Jagex Cashflow Updates**: - **Bond price hikes or Treasure Hunter GP jackpots** eroded value of mid-tier rarity by oversaturating liquidity while dividing upgrade priorities. --- ### Flipping Insights 1. **Typical Flipping Margins**: - Currently, mid-volume **±10% (25-30M GP profit per unit)**, spiking higher during PvM weekends when FSoA builds sustain demand. - Watch **holiday periods** (Christmas through mid-January 2025) for margins closer to **+15%-20%**. 2. **Ideal Flipping Play**: - Buy-in periods: Post-major updates like **skill reworks or dupes** when shafts crash temporarily (e.g., late April 2024 post-patch). - Exit timing: Immediately prior to scheduled **combat metas** or PvM event compasses. --- ### Suggested Items for Parallel or Diversified Investment: 1. **Compatible Items**: - **Elder God Arrows**: Synergistic with FSoA/Necromancy users and offers overlapping market dynamics during Shaft spikes. - **Scripture of Wen**: Another drop from Kerapac with a slower but solid demand curve. - **Zarosian Essence**: Strongly tied to Elder God-related gear. Seasonal dips align with Shaft troughs. 2. **Alternative Focus**: - **Noxious Longbow**: Often tracks market shifts in correlation with inflation (due to high trade volume but narrow PvM niche). - **Upgraded Carapace Gear**: Typically lower risk but similar to Shaft post-inflation meta skews. --- ### Seasonal Price Outcomes 1. **Positive Periods**: - **December (Christmas events)**: PvM activity spikes, gearing buffs. - **Pre-release promotions**: Any announced PvM equipment overhaul boosts speculative buying. 2. **Negative Periods**: - **Post-January’s GP drips or new gold exploits (like Black Partyhat)**: Harsh drops loom post-liquidation rush. - **Early Autumn (September)**: Historically coincides with skill rework or economic "cooldowns." In conclusion, while the Fractured Shaft’s inevitable decline shows a short-term bearish outlook, strategic flipping and speculation around meta PvM periods can maximize profits. Diversifying into synergistic items will hedge against volatility. Long-term viability is tied intricately to the FSoA’s future relevance and Jagex’s economy-altering patches or updates.