The **Surfboard Emote Token** is a cosmetic item in RuneScape 3 that unlocks the surfboard emote, a novelty animation valued for its summery flair. It was first introduced via Treasure Hunter during a summer promotional event, likely in July 2021, making it a limited-time seasonal item. Initially common among players participating in the event, its rarity has gradually increased as fewer remain actively traded while demand for discontinued cosmetics grows. ### Summary of Market Trends and Events Impact: - **Initial Value:** Originally pegged at around 1.5M GP on July 29, 2021, indicating moderate demand compared to other promotional cosmetics. - **September 2021 Spike (30M GP):** Likely tied to the swelling demand for discontinued cosmetics at the release of the **Croesus boss**—bringing new players and incentivizing bank cleanups for high-value rares. Demand for cosmetics paired with Croesus “skilling boss” hype caused a temporary collectibles price surge. - **October 2022 Drop (3M GP):** Treasure Hunter promo events tied to **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** likely caused a flood of older/discontinued items back into circulation, crashing their values. Discontinued token prices often dip with large influxes of new or returning players opening TH bundles. - **July 2024 Dip (100K GP):** **Sanctum of Rebirth release** (July 22, 2024), alongside GP injection from earlier Treasure Hunter updates like Jagex adding 1B GP in April, reduced cosmetic demand as players redirected gold to combat-related upgrades or high-ticket items. Inflation further weakened mid-tier collectibles long-term. ### Current Price: The most recent price of **1,000,000 GP** (July 9, 2024) suggests that the surfboard token has recovered slightly from its floor but remains undervalued relative to its historical highs. This low price reflects continued buyer hesitation amidst a turbulent economy post-Max Cash exploit, which destabilized wealth distribution. --- ### Price Prediction for the Next Few Months: Given historical patterns, **Token items like the Surfboard Emote** generally appreciate post-summer due to scarcity and renewed interest during events where they are indirectly highlighted. However: - The **Mining/Smithing rework (August 12, 2024)** and combat-relevant updates will likely overshadow attention on tokens until players stabilize their finances. - By **November 2024**, the token could gain momentum again as speculative investors and collectors prepare for the end-of-year inflation bubble traditionally triggered by Christmas Treasure Hunter promotions. #### Expected Price Timeline: - **Q3 2024 (Aug–Sep):** Minimal growth; token prices stabilized at ~1-2M. - **Q4 2024 (Oct–Dec):** Likely rebound toward **5-7M GP**, reflecting collectors re-entering the rare market. - **Q1 2025:** If no re-release occurs, expect seasonal scarcity to push values beyond **10M GP** (potentially mimicking September 2021’s trend). --- ### Flipping Margins: The Surfboard Emote Token is an ideal low-volume flipping item: - **Buy Range:** 750K–1.2M GP. - **Sell Range:** 1.5M–2.5M GP during moderate downtime, increasing to 4M+ at seasonal peaks (late Q4). - Profit margins for experienced traders could sit around **800K–1.5M GP per flip, with some patience needed** due to infrequent trades and niche demand. --- ### Recommended Similar Items: To hedge risks and diversify your flipping portfolio, consider complementary seasonal/discontinued items that align with summer-themed tokens or emotes: 1. **Ice-Dye Tokens & Chameleon Dye Tokens:** Historically good correlation with rare token items tied to cosmetics. 2. **Beach Bar Furniture Token:** Also tied to summer cosmetics, with similar demand spikes post-summer periods. 3. **17th Anniversary Cake Tokens:** These function similarly for collectors of limited-release Treasure Hunter animations or niche items. --- ### Seasonal Strategy: 1. **Positive Outcomes (Price Gains):** - Post-event recovery phases stretching into Q4 or Q1 are prime speculative windows. End-of-year wealth influx (Christmas) heavily boosts all rare/emote-related items. - **Late Summer (July-August):** Scarcity begins to affect tokens from older events, ideal for long-term investment buy-ins. 2. **Negative Outcomes (Price Drops):** - Massive **Treasure Hunter GP influx** patches, such as the April 2024 "1B GP added to TH," always devalue mid to high-tier tokens. - Reintroduction of similar summer-themed cosmetics or revamped TH rewards—if re-released, the Surfboard Emote Token could crash to near-bottom values (~500K). --- ### Summary Outlook: The Surfboard Emote Token, while currently undervalued due to economic disruptions, has significant speculative merit. Its low-supply nature and appeal to niche collectors position it as a strong Q4/Q1 hold or short-term flip. However, the market favors patience—aligning buy-ins with low-price periods during economic instability ensures strong margins down the road. Additional exposure to similar seasonal cosmetics (e.g., Beach bars & dyes) offers optimal complementary investment strategies.