The **Manuscript of Wen** is a consumable passive buff item associated with the *Elder God Wars Dungeon* content, specifically tied to Croesus, the first skilling boss in RuneScape. Released on **September 27, 2021**, alongside the Croesus boss, this item provides a combat buff when fighting in the Elder God Wars Dungeon or within the Croesus environment. It requires no charges and is stackable, which makes it particularly attractive for players farming the affected content. The manuscript can only be obtained as a drop from Croesus or purchased on the Grand Exchange. Due to its specialized buff, its demand is inherently tied to Elder God Wars content participation. Over time, its use case has likely narrowed as the dungeon becomes less popular, but its supply trickled into the market through smaller groups farming Croesus post-release. ### **Rarity** The item's rarity in terms of drop rate is moderate, as it drops in relatively small quantities due to the non-combat nature of Croesus mechanics. However, as the player base's interest in Croesus waned, the rate of supply diminished significantly. On the flip side, the initial surge of Croesus farming caused high supply spikes shortly after its release, which is reflected in its price history. --- ## **Price Trend Analysis and Historical Impact of Events** From the price data provided, we can identify the following key trends and anomalies: 1. **Initial Surge and Drop (October 2021-February 2022):** - Upon release, the Manuscript’s price spiked to **400,000 GP (July 2021)** due to initial demand for Elder God Wars. However, its price quickly fell to **70,000 GP (October 2021)** as the Croesus encounter became oversaturated with players farming its rewards and the skill-based mechanics proved underwhelming for casual players. - The **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** caused demand for skilling-related items to spike slightly, momentarily increasing pricing in late 2022. 2. **Relative Stability (Early 2023):** - The price hovered around the **200,000-250,000 GP range**, likely due to consistent but niche usage in the Elder God Wars Dungeon or marketplace flipping. Subsequent duping events (January 29, 2023, and July 4, 2023) minimally impacted manuscripts, as they were not heavily targeted for mass trades or as “high-value” items. 3. **Recent Drops (2024-2025):** - A consistent downtrend is visible in **2024**, beginning with **267,736 GP in February 2024** to **172,234 GP in July 2024** as the Elder God Wars Dungeon content stagnates further, and newer updates distract from Croesus-related grinding. - Noteworthy market disruptions like the **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)** likely accelerated the price decline because of distrust in item valuation and GP manipulation. Further, excess gold entering the market organically inflates other investments (e.g., rares), leaving low/mid-tier skilling items sidelined. --- ## **Price Prediction (Q4 2024–Q2 2025)** Given its historical behavior, the **Manuscript of Wen** is likely to depreciate steadily toward **120,000-150,000 GP** by mid-2025. However, possible events could interrupt this pattern: 1. If Elder God Wars Dungeons are updated for relevance or tied into future content (e.g., Croesus as a requirement for Necromancy), prices may temporarily spike. 2. Conversely, minor rework events (e.g., the **Mining and Smithing Rework planned for August 2024**) could distract players from purchasing Croesus-related items, accelerating declines. --- ## **Flipping Margins** Historically, flipping margins for the **Manuscript of Wen** vary with its pricing context: - During surges: Profit margins are higher (**10-15%+**) but carry risk due to volatility. - During steady depreciation: Flipping becomes challenging, with margins falling to **3-5%** as sellers undercut aggressively and drops outpace short-term spikes. An ideal flip involves purchasing during supply shocks (e.g., when group Croesus farming temporarily increases) and selling during demand spikes (e.g., Treasure Hunter events rewarding Elder God Wars content keys). --- ## **Similar Items for Investment** The **Manuscript of Bik**, **Manuscript of Ful**, or **Manuscript of Jas** are related items that follow *similar market patterns*. While slightly niche, their pricing tends to echo demand for content tied to *Elder God Wars Dungeon*. Of these, the **Manuscript of Ful** typically garners higher interest due to its use in combat scenarios, aligning better with Necromancy builds. Other speculative investments include: 1. **Relic Pieces or God Wars Dungeon Debris:** These correlate strongly with premium content releases, making them solid holds during lull periods. 2. **Golden Party Hats or Treasure Hunter Buffs:** Events like **Easter dupes (April 2024)** create transient value spikes in skilling-related buffs indirectly tied to Croesus farming. --- ## **Seasonal Trading Outcomes** 1. **Positive Trends:** December-February is traditionally strong due to holiday player population surges and expansions. Manuscripts could see higher activity following late-year updates like the **Black Partyhat release** or Fresh Start-related skilling activity. 2. **Negative Trends:** Mid-year lulls (July-August) typically lead to declining prices as fewer players participate in niche PvM or skilling content outside massive updates. Strategic investments should focus on timing bursts of activity, such as **anticipated boss reworks**, **XP-related Treasure Hunter promotions**, or hype around new skilling metas.