### **Manuscript of Ful Overview** - **Summary**: The *Manuscript of Ful* is a rare item obtained from Elder God Wars Dungeon, specifically from the Arch-Glacor drop table. It provides an 8% damage reduction cost when casting Incendiary Shot, Tsunami, or Wild Magic, which makes it valuable in scenarios requiring sustained DPS at high levels. It is primarily used as a consumable by endgame PvM players for min-maxing efficiency in combat. - **Release Date**: It debuted on **July 26, 2021**, coinciding with the launch of the Glacor Front in the Elder God Wars Dungeon. - **Rarity**: While not exceptionally rare like boss-specific uniques, its high demand from PvMers and consistent sink through consumption ensures steady trade movement. Its availability depends on active farming of Arch-Glacor, which can fluctuate with player activity. --- ### **Price Analysis and Historical Insights** - Looking at prices, the *Manuscript of Ful* has experienced dramatic volatility based on *gold inflation*, *combat updates*, and *economic disruptions*. While its initial spike to **400k+ (July 2021)** reflects hype surrounding Arch-Glacor, the steady gold inflation caused by various dupes (November 2021 and January 2023) diluted its baseline toward **10-20k GP**. Recent prices of **14k-20k GP** indicate normalizing gold sinks and recovering engagement with combat-related content. #### **Key Price Influencers** 1. **Gold Dupes** – Events like the **November 2021 rollback dupe**, **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)**, and **Max Cash bug (May 2024)** have profoundly impacted RuneScape’s economy, causing excess GP and inflated item prices. Despite this, the *Manuscript of Ful* experienced dips due to its consumable nature, which buyers repricing downward in expectation of glut supply. 2. **Combat System Updates** – Major updates like the **Necromancy release (August 2023)** and **Combat Update (March 2024)** shifted focus from traditional abilities, temporarily reducing demand for PvM-optimized items like the *Manuscript*. 3. **Fresh Start Effects** – The **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** spiked PvM-based items’ prices due to returning/new players farming content. During this time, the *Manuscript* saw surge sales within one week, reaching **34k+ GP**, before cooldown. 4. **Treasure Hunter Gold Injection (April 2024)** – Jagex’s injection of **1B GP rewards** contributed liquidity to players, indirectly sustaining upper-bound prices to around **19-20k GP**. --- ### **Future Price Predictions (Next 3-6 Months)** Given the historical price fluctuations and external events, we can project the following trajectory: 1. **Short-Term (3 months)**: Average prices are expected to stabilize near **18-22k GP** following the aftermath of major GP injections (**April 2024 treasure hunter event**) as player purchasing power rises but stabilizes. Continued combat content dependency for high-level bossing will also buoy baseline demand. 2. **Mid-Term (6 months)**: If future updates (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth**, **Mining/Smithing rework**) maintain active engagement, prices could climb slightly above **25k GP** by leveraging PvM activity increases. Alternatively, further economic disruptions (e.g., dupes or exploits following the **Sanctum release**) could suppress prices back to **12-15k GP**. 3. **Economic Failure Scenario**: Any unforeseen exploit (e.g., dupe events or PvP-related lures) resembling prior crisis moments (**05/15/2024 Max Cash update**) could devalue the *Manuscript* toward **10-12k GP** once again. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Given the above pricing trends: - **Typical flipping margins** range between **1-2k GP per Manuscript** during stable periods (14k-20k GP range). - **High-volatility margins** appear during fresh content periods (**release of new bosses**) or unexpected gold inflows, as exemplified during the **Treasure Hunter April 2024 event.** Strategy: - **Buy Range**: **14k-16k GP** during downtime (e.g., post major patches or updates). - **Sell Range**: **18k-22k GP** when supply tightens or demand spikes (typically around combat update announcements or PvM rebalances). --- ### **Similar Items to Buy** Focus on items similarly driven by endgame PvM usage and consumable-demand cycles. These include: 1. **Scripture of Ful** – Provides powerful passive effects for DPS-heavy scenarios, often paired with the *Manuscript of Ful*, making it ideal if combat engagement rises. Prices trend seasonally with PvM activity cycles. 2. **Binding Contract (Ripper Demon)** – Consumable tied to Summoning efficiency and PvM maximization, it benefits from similar sinks and PvM-centric events. 3. **Elder Overload Potion** – A staple consumable used by high-level PvMers, whose prices mirror supply-demand trends notably during boss-release hype. 4. **Cryptbloom Armor Pieces** – Although not consumable, these sustain-demand items see similar price trends tied to endgame PvM activity. --- ### **Seasonal Market Trends** 1. **Seasonal Upswings (Positive Price Influences)**: - **December-February**: Post-Holiday content (**Black Partyhat promos, Treasure Hunter rewards**). - **July-September**: Mid-year boss/rate updates (**e.g., Sanctum of Rebirth, skill expansions**). - **Post-New Skill**: Increased demand for combat-support items following new skill revelations (**Necromancy cycle August 2023**). 2. **Seasonal Downturns (Negative Price Influences)**: - **Mid-Patch Lulls**: **March-May** typically sees downtime unless Jagex introduces sudden game-changing tweaks (e.g., **April TH GP addition** and surrounding exploit cleanup). - **Post-Dupe Era**: Gold inflation and excessive liquidations often stabilize consumables at the lower range. --- ### **Conclusion** The *Manuscript of Ful* is a consumable-driven item that reflects RuneScape’s wider economic health. The next 3-6 months present moderate growth potential (**18-25k GP**) but expect downturn risks if further economic disruptions occur. Flipping opportunities exist in **+1-2k GP** margins during downtime, while synergistic purchases like **Scripture of Ful** or **Binding Contracts** can complement diversified investments. Focus on PvM activity cycles for optimal trading outcomes.