### Deep Analysis of the Manuscript of Bik
The **Manuscript of Bik** is a reward introduced with the release of the **Croesus Front** on September 27, 2021, as part of the Elder God Wars Dungeon update. It offers passive buffs for various skilling activities when consumed, tying directly to Croesus (the first skilling boss in RuneScape). Its utility has established it as a sought-after consumable, particularly among skilling enthusiasts and players optimizing experience rates or gathering efficiency.
#### Rarity and Acquisition
Manuscripts are semi-common drops from the Croesus Front, meaning their availability is driven directly by the frequency of Croesus kills. Early post-release, high boss activity coupled with players hoarding manuscripts curtailed supply shocks, but long-term declines in Croesus activity eventually tightened the market for these items.
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### Price Trends and Historical Insights
#### Price Trajectory Summary
1. **Initial Pricing (October 2021)**: Prices began undervalued (100k-1m range) as players flooded the market after Croesus' release.
2. **Mid to Late 2022 Surge**: Post-Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022), prices steadily rose as they became less available due to reduced Croesus activity, stabilizing at 2m-5m.
3. **Early 2023 Drops**: Prices dipped sharply following the **January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe**, which injected trillions of gold into the economy, devaluing mid-tier items like the manuscript temporarily.
4. **Mid-2023 Necromancy Spike**: With Necromancy’s release in August 2023, utility-rich consumables had increased demand to support power-leveling and related content, forcing prices upward.
5. **2024 Instabilities**: Major exploits, including the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)**, caused significant inflation. In parallel, periodic dupes and economic disruptions (e.g., Treasure Hunter gold rewards and Easter Gummy rewards duping) altered overall confidence in GP purchasing power, leading to greater volatility.
#### Current Standings
As of **November 2024**, the Market Price is hovering around **10.9m**, reaching an all-time high amidst increasing GP inflation and dwindling Croesus engagement. Seasonal factors such as skilling events also sustain high demand.
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### **Price Prediction Over the Next Few Months**
#### 1. **Short-Term (December 2024 - February 2025)**
Expect prices to **plateau** or rise marginally due to:
- **Black Partyhat (December 2024):** Surge in spending on rares should ease liquidity, leaving consumables like manuscripts stable or moderately inflated.
- **GIM Bank Bug Fallout (November 2024):** Duped GP reinforces inflationary pressures.
- **Holiday Events:** Winter and Christmas skilling events often create demand for efficiency boosters like the Manuscript of Bik.
Projected Price: **11m-12.5m**
#### 2. **Mid-Term (March - Summer 2025)**
Early 2025 might introduce further mechanical disruptions due to a potential **post-Wilderness PvM update** or Treasure Hunter changes. If Croesus popularity increases artificially (e.g., an event boosting Croesus drops), supply spikes could tank prices back into the **6-9m range**. Otherwise, sustained reduced supply keeps rates strong.
Projected Price: **9m-11m**
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### Flipping Margins and Profitability
Given the Manuscript’s significant price volatility over time, it serves well as a mid-tier flipping asset. In recent months:
- **Daily Margins**: Typically **1-5%**, with 200k-500k GP per flip achievable thanks to constant demand and active volume.
- **Best Times to Flip**: Manuscripts fluctuate most between **Saturday evening (spike in Croesus activity)** and **Monday morning** (post-weekend sell-offs). Buy during high bossing activity, sell during weekday cooldowns.
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### Complementary Items to Watch
For diversification, consider investing in similar items benefiting from skilling and consumable buffs:
1. **Manuscripts of Wen, Ful, and Jas**: While typically lower in price than Bik, volatile moments (e.g., new Skilling/PvM metas) inflate their value. Jas is often the next-best pick due to gathering buffs.
2. **Scripts of the Elders (T3 Rewards from Croesus)**: Rare and valuable; often see sharper price spikes during bot crackdowns or PvM-heavy patches.
3. **Elder Overload Salve**: Correlated consumable; prices increase alongside high-intensity boss releases like Croesus or Raksha.
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### Seasonal Price Impact Trends
#### Favorable Seasons:
- **Winter Holiday Events (Nov - Jan):** Surge in winter skilling buffs and inflated holiday GP flow drive demand for related consumables.
- **Pre-Major Skills or Expansions (Aug 2023 Example):** With new skills or level caps, players stockpile related support items like manuscripts.
#### Negative Seasons:
- **Spring (April-May):** Supply spikes from bossing-focused events and training incentives drive down consumable pricing, as seen in **April 2024**.
- **Bug Fix Seasons Post-Dupes:** Post-duplication economics can reset GP purchasing behavior, leading cheap consumables to devalue heavily.
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### Conclusion
The **Manuscript of Bik** exemplifies RuneScape’s intricate interplay between content activity and market demand. It rides steady waves of demand late into 2024, likely holding its place as a reliable mid-tier flipping asset in the near term. As RuneScape progresses, keep an eye on **Croesus popularity**, broader inflation markers, and new skill content announcements to anticipate broader moves in pricing behavior.
Ely Intelligence Analysis