### **Praesul Wand Deep Analysis**
#### **Summary and Background**
The **Wand of the Praesul** (commonly referred to as the *Praesul Wand*) is a tier 92 Magic main-hand weapon obtained as a rare drop from *The Ambassador* in the *Elite Dungeon 3: The Shadow Reef*, released on **July 25, 2018**. It is among the strongest Magic weapons in RuneScape, highly sought after for endgame PvM setups alongside the **Imperium Core**. Its high tier, rarity, and demand keep it relevant in the economy even years after its introduction.
The wand suffers from extreme price volatility due to the combination of economic instability in RuneScape (e.g., dupes, cash influxes) and its role in the high-level PvM/meta landscape. Its inherent rarity within a challenging boss drop table makes it a prized item, ensuring demand even as its price fluctuates dramatically.
Key points:
- Release date: **July 25, 2018**.
- Rarity: Very rare drop (~1/450 chance, adjusted by mechanics like *Luck of the Dwarves*).
- Market Relevance: Core to meta Magic PvM builds.
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### **Price History Analysis**
The wand’s price has followed a volatile trajectory, largely influenced by external macroeconomic events, updates, and the wealth landscape of RuneScape:
1. **Initial 2022-2023 Stability (~1.8B to 2.4B GP)**
During this period, the wand hovered in the 2B range due to its endgame PvM relevance and steady demand. Despite the occasional price dip (e.g., the *Fresh Start Worlds* economic distraction in September 2022), it largely remained stable.
2. **Early 2023 Crashes (~2.3B to ~705M GP)**
The **January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe** plunged the economy with trillions of gold, introducing instability. Further amplified by **player hacks** in February, the wand's value fell to an all-time low later in 2023 as the economy drained excess cash and struggled to recover balance.
3. **Mid 2023 Necromancy Surge (~705M to 1.9B GP)**
With the **Necromancy skill** update in August 2023 and the **combat level cap increase**, the wand saw revival in demand. New niche builds and heightened interest in *Ambassador* farming contributed temporarily to restabilization.
4. **2024 Combat and Max Cash Crashes (~2B to ~94M GP)**
The **Max Cash exploit** in May 2024 resulted in unprecedented gold inflation, followed by a player gold-drain (price crashes across the board). Coupled with the **Sanctum of Rebirth** update in July 2024—which introduced new strong alternatives—the wand plummeted to sub-100M GP by November.
#### **Interesting Insights**
- **Player Preference Lag:** The wand’s plummet to ~94M GP in late 2024 is synchronous with the **Smithing and Mining rework** and declining usage of Magic relative to emerging Necromancy builds. This suggests the waning relevance of Tier 92 Magic PvM compared to other weapon roles.
- **Weapon vs. Influx Timing:** Price spikes post-economic fixes (e.g., after the August 2023 Necromancy patch) are also tied to increased *Shadow Reef* farming activity. However, subsequent flooding of supply undercut these spikes.
- **Update Dependency Patterns:** Updates replacing high-level PvM metas or reclassifying combat mechanics cause massive volatility in older items like the wand.
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### **Price Prediction for Late 2024-Early 2025**
Given historical trends, the wand will remain **under 100M GP for the immediate future**, barring a niche Magic update or Jagex intervention. The following factors will likely dictate its trajectory:
- **Supply Overload:** Increased Ambassador farming due to low price floors.
- **Combat Meta Drift:** Players focusing on Necromancy builds and other combat reworks.
- **Economic Inflation vs. GP Sinks:** Additional *gold drain updates* (e.g., bond price hikes or sink mechanics) could stabilize values mid-2025.
**Prediction Range (Q1 2025):**
- **High Range:** ~150M GP (if Jagex reduces elite dungeon drops or introduces high-GP sinks).
- **Low Range:** ~50M GP (continued supply inflations and reduced demand).
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### **Flipping Margins**
- During *low-demand phases* (current market): **5-15M GP per flip**. Recent price instability makes flipping favorable for short-term trades. Example: **buy at 90M, sell at 95M** during evening market window flux.
- During *high-volume trades* mid-spike: Margins of **30-50M** are possible when panic buying causes short-term rises.
- Average margins can drop to **2-5M GP during oversupply** (e.g., post-update farming glut).
#### **Flipping Tactics**
- Use **timing precision**: Rapid movements in item value often occur around game update announcements or news leaks. Exploit major spikes or panic sells.
- **Leverage downtime windows:** When PvMers dump loot post-update farming sessions, prices dip temporarily—ideal for opportunistic purchases.
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### **Alternative Investments**
If the Praesul Wand remains lackluster as a short-term option, consider these items with correlated or divergent trajectories:
1. **Imperium Core (Off-hand counterpart):** Primarily paired with the wand for Magic builds. Largely mirrors the wand’s trajectory but often trades at minor premiums due to its smaller supply.
2. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl (T95 Magic Weapon):** Sustains high value as the defining Magic weapon. A safer investment but requires sufficient capital.
3. **Praesul Codex (ED3 Drop):** Consistently strong due to unlocked **Tsunami** spell utility.
4. **Necromantic and hybrid weapons:** Items tied to metabuild shifts often rise in value when combat updates adjust rotations.
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### **Seasonal and Economic Influences**
- **Positive Outcomes (Price Rises):**
- **Post-major bans/GP-sinks:** Items rebound if gold floods stabilize (e.g., after *hack/player bans* or GP wipes).
- **Pre-combat or PvM meta-shifts:** Temporary spikes occur during speculative market corrections.
- **Negative Outcomes (Price Falls):**
- During **Treasure Hunter events or boss farming weeks**, drops like the wand flood the market.
- **Winter months (November/December):** Seasonal treasure hunter prizes and market distractions often kill high-end gear demand.
By aligning with these market rhythms and diversifying with complementary investments, long-term profitability is achievable despite the wand’s current losses.
Ely Intelligence Analysis