### Summary of the Noxious Staff The **Noxious Staff**, released on **August 25, 2014**, is a tier-90 two-handed magic weapon that remains a popular choice among high-level PvMers due to its powerful special attack, **Shadow Tendrils**, and synergy with magic combat. Crafted from Araxxor’s fang, along with spider leg pieces, it is part of the Noxious weapon set (which includes the Noxious Longbow and Scythe). As a boss drop reliant on both RNG (random loot) and required components, the Noxious Staff maintains moderate rarity despite being in the game for a decade. More recently, the item remains in demand due to its flexibility in a variety of situations, enhanced with perks like **Precise 6/Equilibrium 4** and **Aftershock 4**. Its price fluctuations, however, are influenced by game updates, market trends, dupes, and economic shifts. --- ### Historical Price Trends & Key Insights Based on the data provided, the Noxious Staff has experienced substantial volatility over the years: 1. **Initial Growth (2021-2022):** - Prices fluctuated between 120M and 280M in this period. - Events like the **Croesus boss release (Sept 2021)** likely boosted usage of high-tier weapons like the Noxious Staff for skilling boss PvM strategies. - The **Fresh Start Worlds update (Sept 2022)** and **removal of PvP** introduced new demand for gear. 2. **Stable Mid-Price Era (~2023):** - Prices hovered between **270M and 310M**, which was relatively stable aside from spikes caused by the **Necromancy release (Aug 2023)**. This update made equipment like the Noxious Staff crucial as players tested new combat builds and recalibrated post-max-combat-level changes. 3. **Severe Decline in Late 2024 (~Q2-Q4):** - Prices dropped from **~285M in May to a low of ~216M by September 2024**, with notable triggers being: - The **Max Cash update exploit (May 2024)** permanently injected trillions of GP into the economy. Inflation eroded the GP value and undercut trade margins for high-end gear. - Competing weapons became more attractive after updates like **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** and smithing reworks. Tier-90 weapons started losing value compared to power-creep designs. - By **late December 2024**, prices rebounded sharply to **~440M**, likely due to dwindling supply or increased usage from new content such as the **Easter egg rewards dupe in April** or meta shifts inducing renewed demand. --- ### Price Prediction (2025 Outlook) The Noxious Staff’s value depends heavily on its continued PvM utility versus competition from comparable or greater-tier weapons introduced in future updates. 1. **Short-Term Volatility (Q1 2025):** - Expect **stabilization at ~350–400M** post-December due to the holiday demand surge ending and reduced hype for recent updates (e.g., black partyhat). - Continued inflationary pressures (via Treasure Hunter promotions or GP injections) may artificially inflate prices at times. 2. **Potential Recovery (Q2-Q3 2025):** - If Jagex introduces new Araxxor-related content, a fresh PvM boss, or skill adaptations where tier-90 magic weapons excel, demand could push prices to **500M+**. - However, should power-creep mechanics diminish its meta relevance or if a tier-95+ magic staff is released, expect pricing to drop back to **~250–300M**. --- ### Flipping Margins & Strategy The Noxious Staff is a highly liquid item with relatively stable flipping margins depending on recent price trend execution. - **Typical flipping margin:** - Short-term fluctuations outside update windows yield **5M–15M GP per flip.** - Highly volatile periods (e.g., new release weeks or market disruptions) can expand profit margins to **20M+ per flip** with rapid buy/sell strategies. - **Advice for Flipping:** - During rapid deflation periods, aim to catch low-ball sell offers (around 10% under GE mid-price). - Before predictable PvM or combat system updates, buy early in anticipation of demand spikes. --- ### Similar Items to Watch Consider investing in these items alongside the Noxious Staff for hedging purposes or diversification: 1. **Noxious Scythe** (t90 melee equivalent): Shares price trends similar to the staff but tends to spike higher with melee PvM metas. 2. **Greater Concentrated Blast or Greater Chain Codices**: These synergize with magic combat, particularly for spellcasting, enhancing staff utility. 3. **Staff of Armadyl (t95):** A high-budget counterpart that may rise in tandem with mid-tier items like Noxious weapons. 4. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl (FoA):** If you expect a tier-90 buyback cycle, the FoA could also fall in price, creating new entry points. --- ### Seasonal Advice for Investment Timing 1. **Positive Seasons for Noxious Staff Prices:** - **Post-Summer (Aug–Nov):** Updates often preempt large combat growth (e.g., Necromancy in Aug 2023). - **December Holidays:** Increased player count leads to demand spikes for popular PvM items. 2. **Negative Seasons for Prices:** - **Late Spring/Q2:** GP injections (spring Treasure Hunter promos or exploit incidents like the Max Cash glitch) can tank prices by inflation dilution. - **Post-Major Expansions:** For weeks following substantial content releases, demand for Noxious items may decline in favor of new gear. --- ### Final Thoughts The rise and fall of the **Noxious Staff** largely follow RuneScape's economic cycles of inflation and hype-driven demand. Its rebound potential is strong due to entrenched popularity and spec-driven investors, especially during predictable yearly RuneScape cycles. However, as the game evolves, keeping an eye on content releases, GP sinks, and item utility in PvM metas is crucial to ensuring profitable trades.