### Overview of the Noxious Scythe (RS3)
The **Noxious Scythe** is a tier 90 two-handed melee weapon introduced in **2014’s Araxxor boss update**, making it one of the first high-end, player-crafted melee weapons. Created using a Noxious Weapon Piece dropped by Araxxor, it is iconic for its power and versatility as a cleaving weapon in both PvM (Player vs. Monster) and PvP (where applicable pre-Wilderness PvP removal). It stands out in melee rotations for its wide special attack range and critical compatibility with abilities like Hurricane and Cleave.
Because it remains player-crafted, its supply is somewhat tied to the Araxxor boss's popularity. It is moderately rare due to high demand for melee PvM gear for high-level bosses such as Telos, Arch-Glacor, and Zuk encounters. However, its price is grounded by the continuous influx of components from regular Araxxor farming cycles.
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### Historical Price Analysis & Significant Events
#### Release and Early Pricing Trends
- The Noxious Scythe began its life near max cash due to player demand, leveling out as Araxxor farming increased. From **2021-2024**, the scythe displayed cyclic price activity based on economic upheavals and game changes, outlined below:
- **Early 2021 Rollback Dupes** saw gold influx lead to inflation. The scythe rose to **377M-400M** by May 2021.
- **Croesus (September 2021)** renewed interest in melee gear as players sought out broad-spectrum gear for gathering bosses. Prices stabilized near **300M**.
#### Recent Fluctuations (2022-2024)
- **Fresh Start Worlds (2022):** A spike in new players and the Wilderness PvP removal stabilized prices at **315-320M**.
- **Scrimshaw Dupe & Hacks (2023):** The massive influx of gold crashed scythe prices to low **320Ms**, but Necromancy’s Max Level rework spiked the meta demand, sending it to **370M+** in mid-2023.
- **Max Cash Exploit (May 2024):** Another significant dupe undermined the broader economy, with prices dropping **323M (April 2024)** before rebounding as gold was removed post-sanctions on Sanctum of Rebirth update.
#### Current Pricing Cycle (Late 2024)
The **December 2024 price of ~387M** represents recent PvM introductions like the **Sanctum of Rebirth**, which renewed interest in melee over alternatives like dual-wield. Future price stability depends on upcoming Treasure Hunter promotions and GP sink updates.
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### Price Prediction (Q1-Q3 2025)
Historical trends indicate four major factors influence the Noxious Scythe:
1. **Game Economy Regulation:** Duplication incidents and gold sinks.
2. **Rework or Boss Meta Shifts:** Necromancy’s impact in PvM rotations boosted scythe utility before pre-2024 events diminished melee favorability.
3. **Treasure Hunter Promotions:** In-game wealth spikes/depressions stemming from TH loot.
4. **Araxxor Popularity Cycles:** Araxxor drop frequency governs new Noxious piece circulation.
**Predictions:**
- **Q1 2025 (Stabilization):** Prices will likely stabilize around **375-395M**, unless a PvM update or significant dupe is introduced. Expect minor dips in early February as players offload GP for Treasure Hunter-related promotions.
- **Q2 2025 (Potential Upward):** Movement toward the **410-430M range**, driven by updates or event-driven GP sinks, provided no game-breaking bugs or dupes occur.
- **Q3 2025 (Slight Compression):** A flatter trend near **400-420M**. Economic corrections, as seen in prior years, usually occur between **June-August.**
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### Flipping Margins & Profit Opportunities
#### Margins:
- The Noxious Scythe is moderately volatile, with **5M-15M flipping margins** under normal circumstances. During Treasure Hunter gold rushes, margins expand to **20-25M** for short-term resales in a single promotional spike.
- Ideal flipping points occur during major **Treasure Hunter promotions or combat updates** when uncertainty leads to panic selling.
#### Best Practices:
- **Buy Low:** Look for buy-ins below **375M** during GP influx periods (potential Treasure Hunter events or small PvM nerfs).
- **Sell High:** Aim to offload near **395-410M**, especially during boss re-releases (like Araxxor-focused promotions) when PvM relevance spikes.
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### Alternative Investments
If flipping Noxious Scythes, consider diversifying with these items:
1. **Noxious Longbow** – Demand rises alongside scythe, as both share core materials and a similar PvM audience.
2. **Drygore Weapons** – High-turnover for PvMers needing dual-wield pre-NMH crafting.
3. **Zaros God Sword (T95)** – More speculative but gains value with PvM updates requiring hybrid weapons.
4. **Blightbound Crossbows** – Volatile flipping margins linked to Araxxi bow pieces.
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### Seasonal Impact Analysis
- **Positive Price Periods:**
- **January-April:** Post-Xmas gold left over from Treasure Hunter flows into weapons like scythes.
- **July-September:** Combat update periods (e.g., Necromancy 2023) tend to favor PvM gear increases.
- **Negative Price Periods:**
- **May-June:** Bonds price increases often drain GP away from high-end gear.
- **Late November-December:** Treasure Hunter GP spikes flood the economy, harming item values.
By following this cyclical pattern and tracking upcoming content releases, investors can time their entry and exit points effectively.
Ely Intelligence Analysis