### Summary of the Noxious Longbow
The **Noxious Longbow** is a high-tier weapon introduced to RuneScape 3 on **September 14, 2014** as part of the Araxxor boss update. It is a level 90 two-handed ranged weapon crafted using a **Spider leg** combined with a **Noxious fang**, both dropped from Araxxor/Araxxi. As one of the earliest T90 weapons in-game, it has historically been a staple item for endgame PvM content, especially in Ranged-focused combat. Its passive effect, combined with its synergy with abilities like **Rapid Fire** and **Snipe**, makes it powerful in situations where burst damage is required.
Regarding rarity, the components for crafting the bow are dependent on Araxxor’s drop rates, which in turn are tied to rotating bosses and RNG. Thus, apart from inflation and larger economic shifts, its rarity is relatively stable, fluctuating slightly during events that increase bossing participation (e.g., Treasure Hunter/Araxxor-specific promotions).
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### Historical Price Analysis and Insights
The price history of the Noxious Longbow reveals fluctuations tied to key game updates and the in-game economy. Here's a breakdown:
1. **Initial Inflation Post-Release (2014–2016)**: Initially, it held its price as one of the best ranged weapons but saw dips as newer T90 alternatives, like Ascension crossbows or upgraded T92 ranged weapons (e.g., Seren Godbow and Eldritch Crossbow), emerged.
2. **Key Price Movements**:
- **2021-2022 Dupe Gold Inflation**: The **January 2021 rollback dupe** created a surge in high-value items, driving prices upward artificially. This trend reversed gradually as Jagex addressed the issue through bans and wealth removal mechanisms.
- **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)**: Led to increased demand for powerful items, **restabilizing prices** amidst earlier PvM-related changes. Prices spiked in reaction to higher player participation.
- **Necromancy Skill (August 2023)**: Combat max level increased to 152, potentially putting slight downward pressure on **Noxious Longbow** prices, as Necromancy used primarily **magic-based mechanics.**
- **Max Cash Exploit (May 2024)**: Duped GP re-entered the economy, causing immense volatility in high-ticket items like T90s/T92s. Prices spiked shortly in response to injection of liquidity, but subsequent exploit corrections curbed demand, driving a mid-term cooldown period.
- **Combat Update (March-April 2024)**: These changes likely reintroduced interest in burst-oriented ranged play as PvM metas shifted back to traditional combat styles. Subsequently, the **Longbow’s price recovered modestly.**
3. **Longbow Value Corrections Since Release**:
- Early 2022: Fluctuations in Ranged PvM metas during **Wilderness PvP removal** favored melee-focused builds, briefly shaking its value.
- Upward spikes in **late 2023 to December 2024** reflect increased bossing demand post Sanctuary offering Araxxor-adjacent mechanics (diversified loot trades driving materials).
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### Price Prediction (Late 2024 to Early 2025)
Given the historical trends and ongoing market dynamics:
1. **Short-Term (December 2024 – February 2025)**:
- Price Range: **360M–420M GP**. The Christmas season introduces heightened trading activity due to increased player population over the holiday period. Demand for high-tier weapons generally spikes, driven by bossing content and endgame grinding for riches while prices for wealth-adjacent loot elevate demand indirectly Rising Bond included
Ely Intelligence Analysis