### **Eldritch Crossbow Overview**
- **Release Date**: November 25, 2019.
- **Description**: The Eldritch Crossbow is a Tier 92 ranged weapon, famously sought after for its special attack, *Split Soul*, which consumes **25% adrenaline** to deal **50%-150% ability damage** in a 5x5 AoE while healing the user for **25% of the damage dealt**. This makes it invaluable for PvM encounters requiring burst and survivability, particularly in high-tier bossing like Raksha, Telos, and Zamorak.
- **Source**: Dropped by Raksha, the Shadow Colossus.
- **Rarity**: Extremely rare; Raksha's loot table prioritizes rare items based on drop quality and KC thresholds. This makes the Eldritch Crossbow one of the priciest ranged weapons in the game due to its scarcity and powerful utility.
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### **Historical Price Trends Analysis**
- **2021-2022**:
- **Peaks and Troughs**: The Eldritch Crossbow hit its all-time trading volume highs in **2021**, reaching near-max cash (3.5B) during periods of content stagnation where boss-specific gear drove market demand.
- **Impactful Events**:
- **Croesus Boss Release** (Sep 27, 2021): Croesus' mechanics, favoring AoE DPS builds, increased demand for the crossbow's special attack.
- **Duel Arena Removal** (Jan 4, 2022): This indirectly stabilized prices as gold injection slowed, creating a deflationary price environment mid-2022.
- **Fresh Start Worlds** (Sep 22, 2022): Returning and new players drove artificial inflation, as prices across meta gear, including Eldritch Crossbow, spiked due to a new influx of wealth and competition.
- After the **PvP Wilderness Removal** (Oct 17, 2022), demand plateaued since fewer players needed PK-compatible ranged gear.
- **2023**:
- **Underperformance in Price**: Several price dips correlate with events that flooded the economy:
- **Scrimshaw Dupe** (Jan 2023): Injected substantial wealth, fueling inflation and initial spikes. Prices normalized sharply as illicit GP was removed.
- **Necromancy and Combat Revamp** (Aug 2023): The skill disrupted the meta, shifting some demand from ranged equipment to necromancy-based weaponry. Eldritch Crossbow stabilized at ~745M.
- **Hero Pass Backlash** (Sep 2023): Reductions in player numbers led to suppressed demand for high-end PvM gear.
- **2024**:
- **Recent Trends**: Currently hovering at **720M (Dec 2024)**, this sharp decline is attributed to:
- **Max Cash Exploit (May 2024)** and **TH GP Injection (April 2024)**: These flooded the economy with GP, disproportionately devaluing mid- and high-tier PvM items.
- **Sanctum of Rebirth Release (July 2024)**: The boss-oriented meta shifted, focusing on new upgrades and power creep, lowering demand for items without direct synergy in the evolving ecosystem.
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### **Price Prediction**
Given historical trends and the current state of ranged weapon demand:
1. **Short Term (1-3 months)**:
- Likely to stagnate between **680M and 800M GP**, with mild fluctuations driven by holiday demand for ranged setups during recurring boss events.
- **Combat Update (March 2024)** might slightly inflate the price as players experiment with shifting metas.
2. **Medium Term (6+ months)**:
- Price floor could form around **650M GP**, barring radical game changes. However, with potential new ranged releases or further treasure hunter gold injections, prices may fall lower.
**Key Influencers**:
- Continued GP injections (e.g., bonds and promo mechanics).
- The community’s response to ranged-focused content (as seen with Raksha or AoE meta bosses).
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### **Typical Flipping Margins**
- The Eldritch Crossbow consistently offers **3-5% margins** in normal trading—**25-50M GP per transaction** depending on market trends. Margins spike to **6%+ during updates**, promotions, or weekend trading rushes when panic buying/selling occurs.
- Best flipping periods: During boss-focused weekend events or pre-update hype where speculative investments create wider buy/sell gaps.
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### **Similar Items to Invest In**
- **Blightbound Crossbows**: Also Tier 92 ranged weapons. As dual wields, they synergize with different PvM strategies, making them speculative buys if new content emerges favoring DPS over burst.
- **Sirenic Scale Armor**: Ranged meta armor that typically follows the same demand cycles as weapons like the Eldritch Crossbow.
- **Zarosian Essence** (for crafting T92 ranged upgrades): Margins improve when ranged content is expected.
**Diversification Advice**:
- Pair Eldritch flips with related PvM essentials like Seren Godbow or EOF-compatible jewelry (e.g., Reaver’s Ring or Essence of Finality).
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### **Seasonal Trends**
1. **Positive Pricing Periods**:
- **December (Holidays)**: Wealth influx from promotions and gifting affects gear prices.
- **Summer (New Content)**: Jagex often releases bosses/meta-shifting content around this time.
2. **Negative Pricing Periods**:
- **March to May**: Historically deflationary. Wealth floods (e.g., exploits or GP injections) tend to stabilize in this timeframe.
- **Post-major updates**: When new stronger alternatives are introduced, like post-Necromancy, prices correct downward for aging gear.
By combining flipping strategies with seasonal trends, profitable outcomes are likely with intelligent market timing.
Ely Intelligence Analysis