### Summary of Hazelmere's Signet Ring (HSR)
Hazelmere's Signet Ring (HSR) is one of the most coveted and rare tradeable items in RuneScape 3, highly sought after for its powerful passive ability. When worn, HSR provides a 1 in 100,000 chance to double a drop, including rare and unique items such as boss loot, making it a valuable tool for PvM enthusiasts and wealth-maximization strategies. Released on **November 5, 2015**, it originates from the drop tables of certain high-level bosses, particularly via Slayer creatures and rare boss roles. Its drop rate and reliance on RNG make it exceptionally rare, compounded by the fact that it is consumed upon death in PvP zones. Over the years, HSR has cemented itself as a consistent gold sink and luxury item in RuneScape's economy.
### Analysis of Historical Price Trends
HSR demonstrates a consistent upward price trend over its historical lifespan, reflecting its increasing rarity, demand among high-tier PvM players, and general inflation in the RuneScape economy due to gold duplication glitches and wealth-generating mechanics. Recent price trends in your dataset (from **2021 to 2024**) show significant fluctuations caused by external economic disruptions alongside steady growth in periods of calm. Here are key events influencing the price:
1. **Low Points Correlated with Gold Duplication Events**
- **January 2021 Rollback Dupe**: Introduced trillions of GP into the economy, crashing the price of rares, including HSR. This influx of wealth led to price deflation.
- **January 2023 Scrimshaw Dupe**: Affected all luxury items, temporarily halting HSR's price growth.
2. **Significant Spikes from PvM Focused Updates**
- **August 2023 Necromancy Release**: The introduction of the Necromancy skill and higher combat levels (152) renewed interest in PvM gear, driving up HSR demand by Necromancy-focused players farming rare drops.
- **July 2024 Sanctum of Rebirth**: PvM updates typically spike interest around HSR due to the need for improved damage output and rare loot farming potential.
3. **Dip and Partial Recovery via Inflation Events**
- **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)**: Exploited GP injections drove a brief spike in item prices (e.g., players flush with overflow wealth bought HSR). However, subsequent inflation decreased its immediate real-world value slightly.
- **Treasure Hunter & GP Payouts (April 2024)**: Similar events injected raw GP into circulation, momentarily dampening purchasing power for luxury items.
4. **Sustained Growth Periods**
HSR’s price consistently climbs during gamewide player participation peaks, with notable seasonal rises during **updates related to high-value PvM bosses or rebalances**, as well as passive inflation from economic changes like bond price hikes or GP influxes into the market.
### Price Prediction: Late 2024 to Early 2025
HSR will likely stabilize mildly in **Q4 2024**, oscillating between **6.3–6.6B GP** due to the fallout from the **GIM Bank Bug (November 2024)**. Modest increases could follow due to demand among Grandmaster completionists in **early 2025**, as indirect market corrections occur after GP influx settles post-dupe exploits. By **Mid 2025**, expect HSR to breach **7B GP**, fueled by further game releases, consistent inflation, and the withdrawal of wealth by inactive accounts. Trends suggest these movements:
- **Late 2024 Dip Potential**: Potential retrace in price tied to GIM bug supply spikes and reduced PvM activity during December festivities.
- **Early 2025 Resurgence**: Combat or PvM-focused updates should revive interest, sustaining positive growth into mid-2025.
### Typical Flipping Margins
Hazelmere's Signet Ring attracts merchanting and flipping due to its high-ticket nature. Typical flipping margins range from **150M–300M GP**, depending on market volatility and timing:
1. During high demand (major PvM update periods): Margins tighten (~2-3% of item value). Quick flips via active listings produce consistent profits.
2. During lulls (economic disruptions, lack of PvM content): Margins widen (~4-5%) as players offload for liquid wealth.
To maximize profits:
- **Daily Timing**: Buy during off-peak server periods (~UTC 02:00–08:00) when fewer active PvM players are online. Sell during peak playtimes (~UTC 18:00–00:00) when affluent endgamers return to PvM activities.
- **Event Timing**: Purchase during Treasure Hunter GP floods and economic crashes (e.g., April-May 2024), sell during crawling economic stabilization phases.
### Similar Items to Diversify Investment
If flipping or holding HSR, consider diversifying with other high-value items that follow similar price trends and react to game updates:
1. **Eof (Essence of Finality Amulet)**: Frequently fluctuates during PvM updates and economic shifts. Similar 3-5% margins.
2. **Blood Dye**: A rare component with price sensitivity influenced by fashion-scape collectors and scarcity mechanics.
3. **Greater Ricochet Ability Codex**: PvM/meta-friendly item, affected by similar Necromancy bossing trends.
4. **Masterwork or Trimmed Masterwork Armor**: Tied to high-tier PvM content and stable segments of combat meta.
### Seasonal Effect Analysis
RuneScape’s market evolves seasonally:
- **Positive Seasonal Factors**:
- **Early January-February**: Post-holiday user surge and wealth redistribution from event rewards spike demand for luxury items.
- **July-August PvM Updates**: Boss reworks or annual major content drops elevate demand for PvM-centric items like HSR.
- **Negative Seasonal Factors**:
- **Late December**: Holiday events (cosmetics/easy GP from TH promos) divert spending, driving demand for functional items like HSR temporarily downward.
- **May-July Dupe/Exploit History**: Caution near these months due to historical gold disruptions undermining long-term holds.
### Summary Recommendation
Buy HSR during major crashes (~4.5B-5.6B levels historically tied to exploits or low PvM activity) and hold during content-heavy periods. Combine with other PvM meta or lucrative flipping items to mitigate risks tied to isolated price dips. Over time, HSR remains a robust, inflation-resistant investment, poised to breach 7B GP within the next year barring unforeseen gold exploits.
Ely Intelligence Analysis