### **Item Overview and Summary** - **Name**: Fish in a Bag Token - **Type**: Cosmetic token that unlocks the Fish in a Bag cosmetic override. - **Release Date**: The token was introduced via Treasure Hunter sometime in early 2021. - **Rarity**: Initially classed as a rare promotional override, causing its demand and availability to fluctuate. The item is purely cosmetic but appeals to collectors looking for whimsical or rare appearances. It doesn’t reappear often, enhancing its exclusivity over time. **Rarity Trend**: Moderate initially due to its Treasure Hunter origins, which provided a limited but controlled influx. However, with no consistent re-release since initial promotions, the item has matured into a pseudo-rare category with price sensitive to both historical hoarding and Treasure Hunter reintroductions. --- ### **Price History Analysis** Fish in a Bag Token’s price history shows **cyclical spikes and dips** tied directly to gold inflation events, new gold sinks, and updates affecting availability. A breakdown of notable trends: #### **Key Observations**: 1. **Initial Price Behavior (2021–2022)**: - Prices ranged between **75M to 125M** shortly after its release in early 2021, typical for Treasure Hunter cosmetics. - Surges to **200M–345M (May 2023)** likely resulted from increased interest in collectibles amidst RuneScape’s continually growing gold supply, stemming from bot-driven dupes (2021–2023). 2. **Major Spikes (Post-2023)**: - The **Scrimshaw dupe (Jan 2023)** and later **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** led to explosive price hikes. Notable surges: - **July 2024: 208M** (from 125M in Sept 2023). - **November 2024: 597M** likely after the "GIM bank bug" duped gold while high-level players sought niche collectibles with surplus GP. 3. **Stability Factors**: - Holidays like Christmas, along with Jagex’s cosmetic-focused Treasure Hunter events, historically boost demand in **Q4** of any given year. However, 2024’s Q4 spike aligns strongly with artificial inflation by dupe exploits. 4. **Sudden Depressions**: - Price corrections always follow gold-fueled spikes, as seen in **July 2023–August 2024**, possibly due to Necromancy overshadowing cosmetic purchases or Treasure Hunter siphoning demand through new unique items. - The steep dip between **July 2024 (250M)** and **November 2024 (597M)** reflects temporary loss of confidence in collectibles during combat updates and Mining/Smithing rework. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** Given the **historical behavior**, **current rarity**, and RuneScape's macroeconomic landscape: 1. **Short-term (Q4 2024)**: - Prices likely **stabilize around ~500M–700M** due to excess GP injection from major exploits (Nov GIM bug) combined with Black Partyhat and Christmas events driving increased collector activity. 2. **Mid-term (Q1–Q3 2025)**: - Expect **corrective dips post-Q4 surge**, likely rebalancing the token’s value back to **300M–400M** as players liquidate for new updates or grinds, alongside shifts in focus away from cosmetics to mandatory power progression updates. 3. **Long-term Risk**: - Should Jagex re-introduce the token via a cosmetic promotion or giveaway (e.g., Treasure Hunter), expect a price collapse back to under **50M–100M**, typical of cosmetic re-releases. --- ### **Flipping Margins** 1. **Typical Margins**: Cosmetic and niche collectible tokens like the Fish in a Bag Token commonly sustain **5–15% profit margins** for day traders flipping in the **300M–600M range**. Below 300M, margins increase to 20% as wealthier buyers dominate purchases. 2. **Optimal Flipping Periods**: - **Weekends:** Higher player counts increase buyers for cosmetics. - **December Holiday:** Player sentiment and gift-giving among clans raises purchase frequency. - Avoid after major Treasure Hunter events when price dumping occurs. --- ### **Similar Items to Buy** These also appeal to collectors and mimic the Fish in a Bag Token's historical trend: 1. **Elsie’s Hats Token**: - Another rare cosmetic token from Treasure Hunter that undergoes spikes tied to economic inflation. - Less volatile but similarly rare, offering safe, long-term holds with steady appreciation. 2. **Cosmetic Sacrifice Tokens** (e.g., Black Santa Hat): - Black, shadow-themed rares often spike during white/black-themed Treasure Hunter re-releases. Valuable during "chase" promotions but require consistent 2–4-month holds. 3. **Golden Dye**: - High-demand, limited-supply dye with regular re-releases. Flip during quiet periods between Treasure Hunter promos. --- ### **Seasonal Factors Affecting Prices** 1. **Positive (Price Increases)**: - **Christmas/New Year (Q4)**: Demand rises as players focus on gifting, showing off wealth, and obtaining flashy cosmetics. - **Post-Dupe Events**: Gold buyers often target visual items to hold/store GP. - **March–May (Pre-Summer Hype)**: Collectibles spike as players prep for June-July gameplay grinds. 2. **Negative (Price Drops)**: - **After Treasure Hunter Promotions**: Any re-release tanks cosmetics. - **New Skill/Combat Updates**: Resources for power progression demand GP, diverting attention away from "luxury" items. --- ### **Conclusion** Fish in a Bag Token thrives in highly speculative markets governed by RuneScape’s gold supply dynamics and seasonal collector whims. While its Q4 2024 high represents a potential profit-heavy period for sellers, caution is advised heading into Q1 2025. Position carefully to sell during festive demand spikes and reinvest in underpriced alternatives such as dyes or other uncommon Treasure Hunter items for lucrative future trades.