### **Purified Halberd Overview** The Purified Halberd is a niche two-handed melee weapon in RuneScape 3 with value primarily determined by its rarity as a discontinued treasure hunter reward. It was originally obtainable during a promotion but has since been removed from circulation. Because of its lackluster combat stats compared to newer or high-end PvM weapons, such as Drygores or Masterwork weapons, its value is almost exclusively speculative and rooted in collector interest. This makes its price particularly volatile and driven more by market sentiment and scarcity than by functional use. **Release Date:** The exact promotion period isn’t publicly stated, but it ties to older Treasure Hunter events from the early 2020s. **Rarity:** Moderate to rare. While not as scarce as truly iconic discontinued items like the Black Santa Hat or partyhats, the Purified Halberd benefits from declining circulation given the destruction of dormant accounts and its absence from re-released Treasure Hunter mechanics. --- ### **Price Trajectory Analysis** #### **Price Pattern Recap:** 1. **January 2021 Peak (2.5M GP to 15M GP)**: The Purified Halberd’s value reached astronomical heights following the *rollback dupe* that flooded the market with massive amounts of GP (January 11, 2021). Inflation from excess gold spurred demand for discontinued items, causing speculative investment across low-to-mid-tier rares. This bubble burst in the months following the market’s readjustment. 2. **Gradual Decline (2021 February–August)**: After the initial inflation effects subsided, the halberd fell to roughly 900k GP-1.5M GP, primarily due to reduced demand. Smaller updates like Croesus (September 2021) and other popular content largely pushed collector-focused items out of the spotlight, further softening its market appeal. 3. **Notable Crash (2022 Post-Fresh Start)**: By mid-2022, the Purified Halberd sharply declined to 22,633 GP. Factors like *Fresh Start Worlds* and *Duel Arena removal* shifted gameplay focus to new economies and content, diverting potential collectors. 4. **Hero Pass Backlash and Recent Lows (2023)**: The halberd bottomed at 50 GP (September 2023) amidst the *Hero Pass release backlash*, when discontent caused a rush to liquidate collectibles for more immediately useful commodities. This period highlighted the fragility of semi-obscure discontinued items in highly liquid markets. --- #### **Current State and Forward-Looking Projection** At its current price (50 GP), the Purified Halberd is severely undervalued. Historically, discontinued items (however niche) typically experience recovery once the game economy stabilizes post-exploit or update chaos. Cycles of crashes and corrections are well-documented in RS3 item history, especially for mid-tier discontinued items like prized TH recolors or old promotional weapons. Considering historical data and anticipating RuneScape's usual market behavior: - **Short Term (3-6 Months):** The halberd could experience a modest recovery, rising to ~500k to 1M GP as buyer/seller spreads decrease and speculators re-enter the market. - **Medium Term (6-12 Months+):** A further increase to 2M-3M GP is feasible, particularly if Treasure Hunter sees another purge of older items or collector sentiment improves with features such as the *Sanctum of Rebirth* (July 2024) update emphasizing lore and nostalgia. **Catalyst Risks:** 1. Direct re-release via Treasure Hunter would crush prices further. 2. Mass GP influx from known exploits, such as the *Max Cash update exploit (May 15, 2024)*, could stifle recovery by dragging the market into a hyperinflated state. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The **Purified Halberd** is challenging to flip at its floor price due to its niche demand. However: - **Low Availability Periods:** Margins between 10-20% are realistic for high-performing sellers thanks to desperate price undercutting when listings are sparse. - **Event-Driven Lows:** Broad game frustration (e.g., major bugs, new grinds like Necromancy) often floods the market with collectibles, creating an opportunity to acquire the halberd cheaply for mid-term profits. A feasible flipping strategy would involve **holding inventory during low-activity economic updates** and selling into heightened demand before significant content patches. --- ### **Alternative Investments** If speculating on semi-discontinued items, consider **these parallels to hedge risks**: 1. **Shadow Gemerald (Discontinued Treasure Hunter cosmetic)**: - Slightly more liquidity and consistent appreciation due to its cosmetic appeal. 2. **Golden Partyhat Shard Fragments**: - Less volatile and tied to a piecemeal method of assembling golden rares. 3. **Effigy Incubator Promotions**: - Any limited-edition items from content updates tied to lore-rich content (e.g., *Sanctum of Rebirth*, *Necromancy-related promos*) tend to perform well. --- ### **Optimal Seasonal Timing** - **Positive Price Movement:** Festive months (*December-January*) typically bolster collectible prices as players seek to invest in niche trophies after Treasure Hunter floods poorly-timed new rares. - **Negative Price Movement:** Summer months (*May-July*) often lead to stagnation or crashes due to large updates introducing sink-heavy content (e.g., skill reworks, dual-GP patches, or major balancing). By following these cycles and market cues, informed merchants can capitalize reliably. The **Purified Halberd**, while speculative, remains an attractive long-term hold at exceedingly low buy-in GP levels.