### **Purified 2h Crossbow Analysis** #### **Item Summary** The Purified 2h Crossbow is a high-tier two-handed ranged weapon introduced with the *Croesus Front* of the Elder God Wars Dungeon on September 27, 2021. It is a popular choice for endgame ranged players due to its combination of power and versatility. While it was originally obtainable through Elder Troves and by purifying fragments obtained via skilling activities near Croesus, its supply remains limited compared to mass-produceable alternatives. #### **Rarity** Though skilling replenishes some of its supply, the weapon is generally considered rare and often classified as a semi-elite item. As it competes against weapons like the Seren Godbow and dual Ascension crossbows, its niche appeal and slightly limited demand keep it from becoming overwhelmingly expensive compared to ultra-rare loot from bosses like Arch-Glacor. --- ### **Price Prediction** The item's price has fluctuated due to market impacts from both direct updates and broader economic trends over time. Considering the data: #### **Key Historical Influences** 1. **Spikes in 2021-2023:** - The Croesus release made this weapon highly valuable early on, creating a surge in demand. - However, excess gold from the Rollback Dupe (11/01/2021) and Recovery Dupe (07/01/2021) likely led to inflated prices temporarily. 2. **Dips in 2023:** - Increased gold inflations from exploits like the 700B/hour Scrimshaw dupe (01/29/2023) and unregulated player hacks created market uncertainty. While this inflated many rares, surging gold reduced the proportional value of lower-tier rares like the Purified 2h Crossbow. 3. **Necromancy Update (08/07/2023):** - Necromancy, offering alternative combat styles, briefly destabilized all weapon prices. As many players shifted away from Ranged, demand for Ranged gear like the crossbow declined slightly. 4. **Hero Pass Backlash (09/05/2023):** - Widespread player outrage saw a temporary exodus. This reduced demand for high-tier items, causing a dip in prices again until recovery late in 2023. 5. **Max Cash Exploit (05/15/2024):** - The exploit flooded trillions of GP into the market, further increasing gold supply. This could lead to future price surges for any desirable rare due to mass-inflation-driven scarcity perception. #### **Market Outlook** Given these trends, expect the Purified 2h Crossbow to: - **Rise steadily** in price following the *Sanctum of Rebirth* release (07/22/2024). New PvM bosses reignite interest in high-tier ranged weapons. - **Short-term fall** after the *Mining & Smithing rework* (08/12/2024) since players could gravitate towards alternative gear from newly-revisited crafting metas. - **Long-term growth** towards late 2024 and early 2025 as the destabilization caused by dupes and exploits stabilizes. Player demand for ranged gear typically increases post-major reworks and balance patch refinements. Price Prediction Range: - **Current Price (August 2024):** 450M → 600M GP (dependent on market stabilization). - **December 2024 Estimate:** ~650M GP. - **March 2025:** Over 750M GP as economy stabilizes further, provided no additional dupes occur. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Flipping Purified 2h Crossbows is moderately viable but requires patience. Typical margins range between **5–10%** per trade: - **Typical Buy Price:** 450M GP (current). - **Flipping Target:** Sell at ~500M GP. - **Key Tips:** Watch *Treasure Hunter promotions* and GP manipulations (e.g., added GP rewards), which tend to create sell-offs, lowering buy-in prices. #### **Flipping Opportunities** 1. **Post-Dupe Recovery:** Prices fall after duping scandals but typically rebound weeks later. 2. **Treasure Hunter GP Promotions** (e.g., Jagex's 1B GP additions on 04/10/2024) create temporary dips in high-end items as gold supply increases temporarily. --- ### **Complementary Investment Items** For a diversified portfolio, consider the following items to bundle with the Purified 2h Crossbow: 1. **Seren Godbow** – Demand parallels for bossing and high-level ranged PvM. - Also counter-inflates when gold floods hit due to status as a prestige item. 2. **EOF Encodes (Essence of Finality) with Guthix Staff or SGB combos** – Newer updates/reworks boost EOF desirability, especially for players optimizing combat switches. 3. **Seiryu’s Claw or Fractured Staff of Armadyl fragments** – Frequently sees synergized demand for post-Sanctum ranged bosses. --- ### **Seasonal Trends in Price Variations** 1. **Positive Seasonality:** - **Summer-July (PvM Updates):** New bosses often cause PvM-focused weapons to rise significantly in price. Expect the Purified 2h Crossbow to follow suit. - **Winter-Holiday (Fresh Start-like events):** Events that attract returning/new players increase market turnover. 2. **Negative Seasonality:** - **Major Economy Changes:** Post-Bond price increases (like those on 06/25/2024) or extreme GP additions lead to devaluation waves. - **Spring Scandals (Dupes):** Economy-stressed seasons often leave lower-tier rares like the Purified 2h Crossbow underperforming. --- ### **Conclusion** The Purified 2h Crossbow is an excellent mid-range investment with steady long-term potential, particularly as the game economy stabilizes from ongoing exploit-induced inflation. Flipping strategies yield modest margins but can be boosted by pairing the investment with related items like Seren Godbows or EOFs. Timing purchases around Treasure Hunter promotions or after market crashes maximizes profitability.