### Third Age Dye Overview
Third Age Dye is one of the prestigious dye options in RuneScape 3, used to customize high-tier gear like *Noxious Weapons* and *Elite Tectonic Armour*. Its striking appearance mimics the style of the elusive Third Age equipment, making it a highly coveted aesthetic upgrade. It was released on September 17th, 2014, as part of *Treasure Hunter's Treasure Trail* update. It is extremely rare, obtained specifically as a reward from elite or master Treasure Trails. Its rarity and demand among both collectors and merchanters make it one of the most expensive items in RuneScape.
### Rarity Explained
Third Age Dye is among the rarest Treasure Trail rewards in the game. Compared to other dyes like *Shadow Dye* or *Barrows Dye*, its drop chance is significantly lower, as it shares a reward pool with ultra-rare items such as *Orlando Smith's Hat*. Given how few players consistently complete master clue scrolls—paired with its direct correlation to the treasure economy—it has a tight supply. This scarcity drives its astronomical prices.
---
### Price Analysis and Historical Insights
**Key Trends from Historical Data:**
1. **Gradual Increase through 2021-2024:**
From its initial explosion above 5B GP in 2021, Third Age Dye has shown steady growth, reflecting an overall inflation of gold within the economy due to cash injections and increased wealth among players.
2. **Major Dips and Spikes:**
- **December 2021 Dupe Crisis:** The rollback dupe in late 2021 flooded the market with illegitimate GP, diminishing Third Age Dye’s value as wealth redistribution destabilized pricing. It hit a low of 5B during this period.
- **Necromancy Update and Post-Combat Level Change (August 2023):** The combat update caused uncertainty in the economy, spiking interest in utility-based gear over cosmetics, briefly stalling Third Age Dye to around 6.9B. However, after Necromancy stabilized, demand returned.
- **Max-Cash Exploit (May 2024):** The massive injection of trillions of GP into the economy due to exploiters brought Third Age Dye to its peak price of 13B around Q2 2024, marking substantial inflation.
3. **Overall Rarity-Driven Stability:**
Despite occasional increases in Treasure Trail completions following updates or Treasure Hunter events, supply remains consistently limited. With demand from both collectors and practical users, the dye has retained its value exceptionally well over years.
---
### **Price Prediction: Late 2024 to Early 2025**
1. The recent dip back to ~10B (December 2024) reflects temporary market correction following excessive inflation earlier in the year. However, demand is expected to rise again with upcoming holiday events and new Treasure Hunter promotions.
2. **Predicted Range:**
- Short Term (1-2 months): ~10.5B-11.5B GP, as speculative buying ahead of holiday events stabilizes margins.
- Medium-Term (6 months): ~11B-13B GP, assuming no further economic crises or dupes destabilize GP value.
**Watch Factors:**
- *Seasonal Events*: Holiday promotions like Christmas and Double XP weekends often spike demand for high-ticket items.
- *Jagex Game Updates*: Any update introducing additional uses for cosmetic gear or indirectly impacting gold availability, such as combat system overhauls, could influence prices.
---
### Flipping Third Age Dye: Margins and Strategy
**Current Estimated Margins:**
- Typical flipping margins fluctuate between **100-300M GP per trade**, with higher margins during periods of price volatility (e.g., following game-breaking bugs or economic instability). A well-capitalized merchanter could comfortably earn upwards of 1B/day during periods of heightened trading.
**Flipping Tips:**
- Utilize **low-balled overnight buys**: Many sellers panicking after an update may list the dye closer to 9.8-10B, leaving room for profitable re-sales at 10.3-10.5B.
- Target holiday event periods: Liquidity increases during *Treasure Hunter* events, allowing for higher volume trades.
---
### Complementary Items for Investment
1. **Blood Dye:** Another highly sought-after dye for high-end gear customization. Its lower rarity compared to Third Age and broader appeal make it a strong companion investment.
2. **Ice Dye:** Close in value to Blood Dye, with similar flipping margins. Often spikes in demand during winter-themed updates or promotional Treasure Hunter rotations.
3. **Expensive Rares:** Consider partyhats or discontinued seasonal items. High-value cosmetic items often track closely with the economy of dyes.
---
### Seasonal Impact on Third Age Dye Prices
#### **Positive Seasonal Factors:**
1. **December-January (Holiday Season):** Cosmetic items are in high demand as wealthier players splurge on luxury items.
2. **July-August (Treasure Hunter Promotions):** Master clue scroll completions increase, but prices are often resilient due to overwhelming demand versus color cosmetics.
#### **Negative Seasonal Factors:**
1. **Post-Injection Periods:** Following dupes or massive economic exploit fixes, speculative demand drops as the market adjusts.
2. **PvM-Oriented Updates:** When combat-related updates launch, there’s often a shift in GP flow toward PvM gear rather than cosmetics.
---
### Conclusion
Third Age Dye remains one of the most stable high-value investments in RuneScape due to its immense rarity and aesthetic-driven demand. While subject to market fluctuations following major updates or GP injections, its long-term trajectory has consistently been upward due to inflation and limited supply. For max-profit flipping, pair it with Blood Dye or complementary high-value items, and focus on acquiring during post-update dips. Seasons like winter (holidays) and periods of increased GP liquidity are optimal for maximum profit margins.
Ely Intelligence Analysis