### Summary of the Seahorse Follower Pet Token The Seahorse Follower Pet Token is a cosmetic item introduced through Treasure Hunter in **early January 2021**, likely as part of a promotion focused on aquatic-themed rewards. It allows players to unlock a seahorse follower pet, which has become a niche collectible item valued by players who enjoy unique pets for aesthetic purposes or personal collections. Its rarity lies in the fact that it was obtainable exclusively through timed Treasure Hunter events and has not seen a confirmed widespread re-release since then, apart from potential influxes from forgotten accounts or Treasure Hunter boxes acquired by other means. However, the item’s value has been heavily volatile due to RuneScape’s frequent economic disruptions caused by dupes, gold injection, and botting scandals. --- ### Release Date & Historical Rarity - **Initial Release**: January 2021, during a Treasure Hunter promo. - **Noteworthy Market History**: - Listed for max 98M in January 2021 shortly after release. - Collapsed in price to ~42M by **April 2021** after the rollback dupe flooded the market with artificially inflated items and currency, signaling oversupply. - Hit rock-bottom prices under **4M by late 2021 and into 2022**, reflecting neglect but also the broader impact of RuneScape’s shifting focus to new high-profile updates. - Rebounded occasionally during gaps in re-releases or after significant GP sinks applied pressure to supply. --- ### Historical Price Patterns and Correlations (2021-2024) 1. **Launch Hype Premium**: When the token released, scarcity and novelty drove prices upwards (80-98M). This premium quickly collapsed once players liquidated their tokens en masse and the January 2021 rollback dupe inflated gold in the economy. 2. **Major Drops**: - **April 2021 Rollback Dupe**: Introduced trillions of gold and items into the game, halving prices across the collectible market. - **2022-2023 Lull Period**: No significant reintroductions or promotions tied to the token led to stagnation, but a reduced population focusing on pets likely kept demand muted. - **Dupes from 2023-2024**: Events like the Scrimshaw dupe (Jan 2023), Red Portal lures (2023), and the Max Cash exploit (May 2024) flooded the market with GP—ironically suppressing mid-tier collectible values since ultra-expensive assets (partyhats, dyes) became the primary targets for investment. 3. **Current Rebound Attempts**: After the **June 2024 bond price increase (8.99 USD)** and the **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)**, in-game collectibles began to see brief recoveries as affected whales began reinvesting in unique items instead of hoarding bonds. However, Seahorse still sits within a contested mid-tier price category, limiting its ceiling during economic downticks. --- ### Current Price Insights & Flipping Margins - **Latest Market Price (July 2024)**: 6.16M, slightly lower than the late-June surge to 9M, reflecting hesitation from consistent buyers. - **Flipping Margins**: Historically, Seahorse Follower Pet Tokens see **10-20% flipping margins** during typical market conditions. The token remains highly liquid below ~7M, making it a consistent performer even at moderate market volumes. - Ex: Buying at **5.5M** and selling near **6.5-7M** following Treasure Hunter spikes demonstrates effective profit strategies compared to other rares. - Patience is key, as its value fluctuates based on rediscovery events (hoarded drops, Treasure Hunter keys yielding non-desired loot). --- ### Short-Term Price Prediction (2024) 1. **Factors Supporting Price Growth**: - Many lower-tier collectibles are undervalued following the **May 2024 Max Cash exploit dumping waves**, but GP sinks from **Treasure Hunter updates** (like 1B GP rewards in April 2024) and increasing bond prices create upward pressure across collectibles. - Scarcity remains a key factor. Unless Jagex directly re-releases Seahorse or similar pet promos, old Treasure Hunter tokens like this historically drift upwards over time when liquidity stabilizes. 2. **Rick Factors for Declines**: - Seasonal events may introduce new, more visually appealing pets (e.g., **Christmas or Halloween 2024**) that outshine the Seahorse in demand. - Economy destabilizations: Dupes or hacking waves can either devalue mid-tier collectibles by displacing demand, or over-inflate the economy, making such items less attractive relative to high-end investments. 3. **Prediction**: - August 2024 (near-term): Steady price growth toward **7M-9M** due to ongoing scarcity and speculative buying leading up to the holiday season. - Post-October 2024: Riskier territory as Halloween events and potential Treasure Hunter re-releases could introduce competitor items. Prices may temporarily fall closer to **5M-6M** before Christmas drives renewed interest. --- ### Investment Strategy & Similar Alternatives 1. **Other Items to Consider**: - **Gilly Willikers Pet Token**: Another niche Treasure Hunter pet token with a similar low-mid price band but sharper profit spikes following pet re-popularity announcements. - **Golden Party Hat Shards**: While tied to a different niche (rares), they perform similarly in seasonal demand cycles and offer high flipping potential around holiday events. - **Wisp Follower Tokens**: Older, similarly scarce Treasure Hunter rewards tied to less visual appeal than the Seahorse but rising collector value. 2. **Seasonal Trends**: - **Positive Price Outcomes**: Early/mid-summer and Christmas tend to see higher collectible token performance due to downtime before new ultra-premium promotions attract heavier investor attention. Hedge against post-event corrections with moderate flips. - **Negative Outcomes**: Early-year periods (Jan-Feb) often destabilize cosmetics markets due to new-year event items, dupes, or filler content across Treasure Hunter. --- ### Conclusion The Seahorse Follower Pet Token reflects a mid-tier collectible investment poised for steady growth, especially in the absence of re-releases or major promotional overlap. Its historical ties to economic fluctuations make it a balanced item for flipping and small-scale investing. Those aiming for stronger portfolio diversification can explore related pet tokens while leveraging holiday cycles for optimal profit timing.