### **Squeaker Axe Token Analysis** #### **Summary** The Squeaker Axe Token is an extremely rare cosmetic item in RuneScape 3, unlocking the ability to transform a player's two-handed weapon appearance into the whimsical Squeaker Axe skin. It was originally obtained via Treasure Hunter promotional events, making it a promotional-time-limited item. While the exact **release date** is difficult to pinpoint, tokens of this nature commonly debut during limited campaigns with quirky themes, and its scarcity has escalated due to a lack of re-releases. The token holds appeal as a high-demand cosmetic in niche markets, particularly among collectors and investors in discontinued items. This generates long-term speculative value, especially as its availability dwindles with every activated token. #### **Rarity** The Squeaker Axe Token can be considered **rare**, but it is not on the same tier as truly iconic legacy items like Partyhats or discontinued Halloween Masks. Rarity here is mainly established through low circulation and diminishing supply, as Treasure Hunter tokens tend to decrease over time. Its price spikes correlate heavily with player interest in discontinued cosmetics and general market liquidity. --- ### **Price Data Interpretation** Let’s examine historical pricing while factoring in major RuneScape economic events: 1. **2021-2022 Period** - Prices initially hovered around **2-3M** during early 2021 but became erratic due to external shocks: - **January 2021 Dupes** introduced vast amounts of wealth and items into the game, causing some inflationary effects. During this time, the token saw elevated pricing (up to 3,300,000 GP). - By **mid-2021**, after the rollback corrections and introduction of Croesus Boss, prices settled to around **1.8-2.2M**, aligning with typical post-event market recoveries. - The **removal of Duel Arena (01/04/2022)** introduced capital redirection into stable assets like cosmetics, but prices remained modest at around **1.5M**, partly due to general availability. 2. **2023 Volatility** - The **January 2023 Scrimshaw Dupe** destabilized high-value markets but had indirect effects on mid-tier cosmetics, pushing undervalued items up dramatically later in the year. Prices of the token rose to **~6M** by early 2024, fueled by increased speculative activity and wealth redistribution from hacked accounts/lured partyhats. - The **Necromancy release (08/2023)** spurred interest in aesthetic items—including weapon overrides—leading to heightened demand, further inflating Squeaker Axe Token prices. 3. **March 2024** - Prices climbed to **~4M GP**, despite volatility from the **March Combat Update** and potential Treasure Hunter GP flooding from earlier in April. The upcoming **May-Max Cash exploitation update** could lead to investor panic, likely spiking prices briefly before any corrective dips due to an oversaturated economy. --- ### **Price Prediction (Mid-2024 to Early 2025)** Historical data and RuneScape’s evolving economic patterns suggest a **bullish outlook** for the Squeaker Axe Token as it remains scarce and increasingly desirable. The confluence of wealthy veterans seeking investment-safe assets and a diminishing token pool will likely result in consistent price growth unless re-released. - **Short Term (3 months)**: Expect minor fluctuation between **3.8-5.5M**, with some dips possible due to sudden liquidity injections (e.g., Treasure Hunter promotions). - **Six-Month Outlook**: Prices may stabilize around **6M-7M**, assuming no re-release or major cash influx. - **Long Term (12 months)**: Could reach **8M+**, owing to persistent collector demand during typical holiday-driven market booms. #### **Key Risks** 1. **Re-release**: Any rerun of the Squeaker Axe Token in a promotional campaign would immediately crash its value by up to 50% or more. 2. **Inflationary Updates**: Major GP injections (such as Treasure Hunter tweaks or dupes) could initially inflate the token’s price but destabilize the broader market, causing corrections. --- ### **Flipping Insights** Flipping the Squeaker Axe Token can be profitable due to average margins of **~5-10%** during slow market periods. However, during volatile spikes (e.g., Treasure Hunter promotions or high-traffic seasonal events like Christmas), margins of **15-20%** can be achieved. - **Optimal Buy Range**: 3.5-4.2M GP. - **Optimal Sell Range**: 4.6-5.5M GP (during event-driven spikes). - **Best Flipping Seasons**: Late December (holiday inflation) and post-update speculative booms (e.g., right after skill reworks). --- ### **Complementary Items for Investment** 1. **Shimmy Shield Token**: Another quirky cosmetic token with similar market patterns. It has shown massive potential during treasure hunter scarcity periods. 2. **Blazing Flamebiter Overrides**: Weapon overrides released during exclusive events with higher collector appeal. 3. **Winter Holiday Tokens**: Historically surge in value during the October-February festive season. --- ### **Seasonal Market Trends** - **Positive Seasonal Influence**: - **Winter Holidays (December-January)**: Players flush with disposable income often aggressively invest in cosmetics as festive milestones arrive. - **Post-Rework Hype (August-October)**: Expanding player activity and GP redistribution drive up demand for collectibles. - **Negative Seasonal Influence**: - **Spring-Summer (March-June)**: Historically slower market periods due to player engagement dipping slightly and Easter promotions diluting cosmetic appeal. - **Post-Releases of GP-rich Events**: Duplications or new earnings funnels (e.g., Max Cash Bug, large Treasure Hunter leaks). --- ### **Conclusion** The Squeaker Axe Token remains a robust mid-tier speculative cosmetic with a track record of steady appreciation in rarity-driven demand. Despite a few external risks (notably re-releases), the token represents a lucrative, medium-risk investment in the RuneScape economy—particularly for wealthier flippers aiming to capitalize on predictable seasonal spikes. Players looking to diversify should pair it with similarly themed collectible items from discontinued or limited runs.