### **Water Balloon Launcher Analysis** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The Water Balloon Launcher is a novelty item introduced on **December 24, 2013**, as part of a Christmas Event. Players could obtain it by completing the holiday activities, making it a mildly nostalgic item but not inherently rare compared to discontinued holiday-specific rares like Santa hats. Its supply isn't fixed (due to periodic re-releases in Treasure Hunter or promotions), which lowers its potential status as a high-value collectible. However, it retains consistent demand as a cosmetic oddity and a piece of RuneScape history. Its rarity is situational. Older players who inadvertently kept it from its original release hold it as a quaint reminder, while later appearances during certain Treasure Hunter promotions added to its supply, likely diluting its exclusivity. A resurgence in perceived value could occur if Jagex confirms it will never return, but until then, its value fluctuates based on demand for fun or nostalgia-driven items. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis** Using the price data provided, the item shows significant volatility: - **Initial Peaks (January-May 2021):** A massive spike to 2.39M in January can likely be attributed to the **Rollback Dupe** (01/11/2021). The dupe poured trillions of GP into the economy, overinflating all non-trade-locked items. The follow-up fluctuations (dropping to 1.49M by May) align with declining interest post-rollback and increased market liquidity. - **Mid-2021 Decline:** By late 2021, the Water Balloon Launcher fell as low as 127,000 GP following the **Croesus Boss Release (09/27/2021)**. Croesus, alongside new skilling mechanics, diverted player efforts toward high-value boss items or skilling investments, pulling demand from novelty-based cosmetics. - **Temporary Lower Bound (2021-2022):** During 2022, the item stabilized in the **150K-250K GP range.** The removal of the Duel Arena (01/04/2022), Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022), and other events didn't directly disrupt the item's pricing but reshaped GP flow, narrowing price volatility. - **Recent Rebound (2023):** Prices rose to **400K (02/15/2023)** due to factors like **Necromancy popularity (08/07/2023)**. A new skill diverted gold into skill-related investments while driving speculative buying of underappreciated items like this Launcher for flipping purposes. --- ### **Price Prediction (2024-2025)** - **Short-Term (Next 3 Months):** Prices are likely to hover in the range of **320K-500K GP**, with brief dips to ~250K GP if cash sinks or Treasure Hunter promos dilute liquidity. No indication of further re-releases makes short-term demand semi-stable. - **Mid to Long-Term (9-14 Months):** If Jagex reinforces the value of untradeable or purely cosmetic collectibles (e.g., through historical events or a “classic RuneScape nostalgia” promotion), the Launcher might rebound steadily toward **700K-900K GP.** - **Potential Price Spikes:** Events such as another GP flood (**e.g., Treasure Hunter GP injection like 04/10/2024**) would inflate value drastically. Conversely, re-release threats (e.g., "Christmas throwback" promos) could crash prices to **~200K at the floor.** --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Water Balloon Launcher is a classic speculative item for merchant activity in moderate volumes. - **Typical Flipping Margin:** Profits generally range between **40K-90K GP per trade.** - **Bargain Points:** Auctions, overlooked listings at ~250K GP. - **Sell Targets:** Between 350K-400K in stable months. - **Profit Strategy:** During downtime for updates, botting bans, or skill-patch focuses, prioritize buying en masse. Selling premiums occur pre-holiday events when collectors buy for nostalgia-driven gifting. --- ### **Similar Items for Investment** To maximize profits, consider diversifying into these items, which share comparable characteristics (medium cash thresholds, cosmetic nostalgia, demand spikes): 1. **Golden Party Hat Shards:** These show stable demand due to their accessibility for free-to-play players and speculative reassembly value. 2. **Ice Dye (Christmas-Based Tiers):** Although pricier, these tend to maintain holiday traction spikes annually. 3. **Puppet Stands and Tokens:** Passive flipping targets during Christmas events for minor but steady profit margins. 4. **Presents (Blue, Red):** Historically holiday-themed, less inflation-resistant than water-based novelties but excellent for sentimental buyers. --- ### **Seasonal Trends** - **Price-positive Seasons:** - **Winter (December-March):** High nostalgia for older holiday events brings returning players into the fold, causing demand spikes for items like the Launcher. Players often prepare for holiday trading during this season. - **Post-update Recession Periods:** When major combat or boss updates are followed by a drop in PvM materials demand. - **Price-negative Seasons:** - **Mid-Summer (June-August):** Cosmetic collectibles hit seasonal lows due to attention redirected to skill-based reworks or boss updates (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth** in the past). Fresh patches siphon wallet funds and devalue novelties briefly. - **Cash Injection Events (e.g., Dupes):** Surges in GP cause unpredictable, chaotic oceanic market highs/lows, making flipping unwise without reserve stability. --- ### **Closing Insights** The Water Balloon Launcher represents a mid-tier speculative item with solid flipping margins and steady collector interest. While not rare enough for explosive long-term growth, it’s a reliable candidate for seasonal trades and opportunistic buying. Stay vigilant during Treasure Hunter's seasonal promos to ensure you don’t overcommit after any unexpected re-releases.