### Summary: Pretzel Shield Token The Pretzel Shield Token is a rare cosmetic override token released in *RuneScape 3* as part of a Treasure Hunter promotion. This token allows players to unlock the Pretzel Shield cosmetic, a novelty shield with whimsical appeal. It was introduced on **January 18, 2021**, during a Treasure Hunter event themed around festivals. Its rarity stems from its limited-time availability, coupled with its unique, thematic visual appeal, which targets collector-type players. Given its origin in Treasure Hunter—a system designed to distribute limited-edition cosmetics and rewards—the Pretzel Shield Token has fluctuated in value based on nostalgia, scarcity, and trends around collectible items. --- ### Historical Rarity and Price Trends The Pretzel Shield Token has had notable price volatility since its release, with peaks approaching **1M GP** and dips as low as **200K GP**. Analyzing the historical price data: 1. **Initial Release (January 2021):** Upon release, the token maintained a high price (close to maximum Treasure Hunter-tier cosmetics) due to hype. Prices hovered near the **1M GP** mark early on but dropped rapidly by February and March 2021. This sharp decline reflects typical early dumping behavior by players rushing to liquidate the token. 2. **Mid-2021 (Post-Duplication Events):** The rollback dupe and increasing injection of GP with simultaneous duplication of Treasure Hunter tokens (January–July 2021) caused general inflation in wealth but a relative oversupply of some cosmetics. By **July 2021**, it dropped to a low of **250K GP**, only to rebound to **1M GP** by August, tied to demand among collectors seeking to capitalize on low supply after heavy selling. 3. **2022–2023:** The range stabilized between **500K and 900K GP**, with mild spikes driven by the **discontinuation of Duel Arena** (January 2022) and the introduction of **Fresh Start Worlds** (September 2022). Both updates brought renewed interest in collectible items via returning player bases. However, inflation (e.g., bond price increases in May 2022) prevented significant growth, as GP devaluation hurt smaller cosmetic items more than high-tier rares (partyhats, H'ween masks, etc.). 4. **2024 and Necromancy/Meta Changes:** With major updates in Necromancy (August 2024), combat reworks, and resurgence in coin sinks, the token recently trended towards **750K-1M GP** again. Player demand seems tied to renewed cosmetic interest after the **Hero Pass backlash** spurred nostalgia for older, non-pay-to-win aesthetics. --- ### Analysis: Key Influences on Price Dips and Spikes - **Treasure Hunter Event Availability**: The token has not been reintroduced since its release, establishing its "retired" status. However, if Jagex chose to rerelease such older tokens during another Treasure Hunter event, this would significantly devalue its price (as has happened to other TH cosmetics). - **Inflation and Economic Manipulation**: Dupes, gold-injection mechanics (e.g., Scrimshaw dupe or Treasure Hunter prize expansions), and exploit-related GP influx triggered oscillations in the token's value. Cosmetic items like the Pretzel Shield Token are more sensitive due to their niche appeal. - **Sentimental and Collector Value**: Its appeal is fashion-driven, tied to novelty and progression of RuneScape's economic cycles. Unlike functionality-based consumables, it's a purely aesthetic item with spikes mostly in periods when collectors seek to complete sets or in markets where cosmetics are promoted as prestigious. --- ### Price Prediction (Next Few Months: October 2024 - January 2025) - **30-Day Projection**: Minor growth is expected, keeping the value between **850K to 1M GP**, driven by returning seasonal players around Halloween and Christmas seeking older collectibles. - **60-90 Day Projection**: Prices may spike post-Crimbo/Eastern European server cluster spikes and in anticipation of any wealth-rebalancing updates. Expect a range of **900K to 1.2M GP**. - **Risks**: - A Treasure Hunter rerun including cosmetic override tokens could cut prices by **50%+**. - If Jagex introduces significant GP sinks or inflation stabilizers (e.g., increased bond sinks), scarcity-driven items like this typically rise in value but only mid- to long-term. --- ### Flipping Margins Examining historical price gaps and volatility: - The **typical margin** for flipping this item is 100K-250K GP with steady buyer activity. - Low periods, like October 2022 (714K GP), offered margins closer to **300K-400K GP** due to low current market sentiment. For safe flipping: - Target **buy offers between 800K-850K GP**. Use patience during odd hours (off-prime time), as low volatility translates to better margins. - For consistent selling: Place sell offers **just below 1M GP**. Cosmetic collectors tend to prioritize instant buys for achievements or impulsive purchases before events. --- ### Investment Advice: Complementary Items & Seasonal Trends **Items to Watch for Investing Alongside Pretzel Shield Token**: 1. **Rival Rares**: Other Treasure Hunter tokens like the *Popcorn_, Balloon_, or Starfish Shield Tokens typically correlate pricewise. 2. **Discontinued Rares**: Familiarity with fluctuations in smaller rare categories, such as the Flaming Skull or Gravedigger costumes, offers insights into overriding seasonal rarity choices. **Seasonal Impacts**: - **Positive Seasons (Growth)**: - Winter Holidays (Christmas, New Year): A strong seller's market follows from **gift-giving metas and nostalgia-driven collectors returning**. - New Skill Releases (or Combat Reworks): Casual players revamp characters' cosmetics when engaging with world-first training or PvM development. - **Negative Seasons (Decline)**: - Any Treasure Hunter event that reissues cosmetics reduces their value immediately. - Post-summer months (e.g., September dip) typically sink demand except when coupled with game-changing updates. --- The Pretzel Shield Token is a showcase piece of RuneScape’s player-driven economy, balancing universal novelty appeal with the cycles of rarity, economic inflation, and event-driven demand. With no new Treasure Hunter re-releases of comparable items in sight, it remains a medium-tier collector's choice with modest growth potential into early 2025. Stay vigilant on updates to Jagex’s GP economy and duplication fixes to avoid losing margins.