### Summary of the Wreath Shield Token: The **Wreath Shield Token** is a discontinued, cosmetic token introduced as a Treasure Hunter promotion reward. The token unlocks the **Wreath Shield**, a green holiday-themed cosmetic off-hand item resembling festive holly. It was initially released in **December 2020**, during the Christmas Treasure Hunter event. As a seasonal and cosmetic item, its value is dictated by player interest in collectibles and the rarity arising from limited availability. Due to **Jagex not re-releasing the specific item** (as of 2024), **demand primarily comes from high-level merchants, collectors, and players seeking seasonal-themed aesthetics** for events. This behavior often creates price volatility. ### Important Rarity Context: - Rare **Treasure Hunter promotional items** like this token are discontinued, making its availability static while demand may fluctuate. - **Holiday cosmetics gain spikes in price corresponding to seasonal in-game trends or collector surges**. - The token’s price is influenced by severe economic volatility in RuneScape caused by dupes, scams, and gold-sink mechanisms implemented by Jagex. ### Historical Price Analysis and Key Insights: - Its **initial highs of ~1.7M GP in early 2021** were fueled by Treasure Hunter exclusivity and speculative buying during holiday demand. - The **January 2021 rollback dupe significantly disrupted prices**, with more tokens being introduced into circulation, followed by a chaotic free market economy due to inflation. - The **Duel Arena removal (January 2022)** spurred fluctuations from gold redistribution, leading to sharp spikes and drops near 10M GP in isolated trades. - **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** indirectly devalued mid-tier discontinued items as newer players focused on tradable rares like Partyhats and masks, leading to dips in niche collectible markets. - The **Necromancy combat level cap increase (August 2023)** drew attention away from cosmetics, evident in the token’s price stagnation post-update. - Seasonal engagement often drives peaks; **prices rebounded strongly on festive dates like Christmas (December 2022), hitting 10.5M GP** before returning to normal after the holidays. - Tokens reached **lows of 10 GP in February 2023**, likely leveraged by mass player hacks distributing the tokens en masse. From **June 2023 onward**, the economy began stabilizing after new bug fixes reduced exploit abuse, while scarcity drew cautious investor attention back. The token's price hit **6.5M during July 2023's Red Portal bug abuses**, where rare and mid-tier cosmetic items gained speculative attention from wealthy flippers artificially pumping prices. ### Price Prediction (2024): Given historical trends and upcoming updates: - **Short-Term (1-3 months)**: Expect **increased volatility** around **December 2024 holiday events**, projecting ~12M GP at its peak during demand spikes. - **Medium-Term (4-6 months)**: Post-holiday sell-offs will correct it to **6M-8M GP**, reflecting normal cosmetic interest paired with slight collector attrition. - **Long-Term (2025+)**: Unless Jagex unexpectedly re-releases the token, its incremental scarcity and nostalgic value could see steady growth, potentially surpassing **15M GP** by late 2025. Risks include potential item **re-releases** via updated Treasure Hunter events or as a reward tied to new content. ### Typical Flipping Margins: When flipping the Wreath Shield Token: - **Current margins range between 650K–1.2M GP per trade**, depending on liquidity. - Flipping pre-holiday season (e.g., November) allows for discounted buy-ins, while selling during festive hype (December) maximizes your returns. - Key times for flipping include **Treasure Hunter key sales**, which trigger item floods on the Grand Exchange (GE), creating opportunities for sniping undervalued listings. ### Items to Buy Alongside: To strengthen your position while hedging against seasonal uncertainty, consider diversifying into other similar **holiday-related Treasure Hunter tokens** or discontinued items: - **Reindeer Antlers Token**: Reflects comparable demand during Christmas seasons. - **Sleigh Bell Walk Override Token**: Another holiday-exclusive override with a similar economic trajectory. - **Partyhat Fireworks Token**: Grows in hype every December event. - Discontinued **Halloween Tokens** (e.g., Crassian Companion Token) for diversification. ### Seasonal Trends Analysis: 1. **Positive Influence on Price**: - **Late November to December**: Holiday events drive demand for Christmas-themed items. - Major RuneScape anniversaries or Treasure Hunter promotions that hype-winter cosmetics. - **Post-GP drains** (e.g., March 2024 cash sink updates) can increase purchasing power among the average player base, benefiting rare cosmetics. 2. **Negative Influence on Price**: - **January to March** consistently sees sell-offs as players offload cosmetics for higher-demand combat gear post-winter events. - Large dupes/unforeseen bug abuse, as observed with the Scrimshaw and Portal glitches, create economic instability devaluing mid-tier collectibles. - Major skill/gear rework updates (e.g., Mining & Smithing rework or hypothetical Max Cash cap increases) redirect attention away from the collectible market. ### Conclusion: The **Wreath Shield Token** is an excellent speculative item for merchants, particularly in seasonal flipping cycles. Buy just before December holidays and sell amid festive hype, ensuring steady profits. Pair trading with comparable holiday tokens to maximize gains while mitigating risk. Long-term scarcity aligns with RuneScape’s growing preference for discontinued cosmetics, ensuring steady future appreciation barring a re-release.