### **Terrorbird Plushie Deep Dive** #### **Summary** The **Terrorbird Plushie** is a cosmetic tradeable item introduced in RuneScape 3 as part of a Treasure Hunter promotion during September 2020. It was originally obtainable from the **Plushie Paws Promotion**, requiring luck and microtransaction or key investments. Its distinctive appearance and limited-time exclusivity made it a collector-heavy item in the Rare niche post-event. Despite not being classified as a "Rare" like discontinued items (e.g., Partyhats), its limited availability, novelty factor (linked to Terrorbird lore), and cute design have solidified its appeal among fashion-scape enthusiasts and speculators. The plushie’s trajectory has mellowed from its initially hyped release but remains desirable for niche collectors and traders alike. #### **Release Date**: **September 2020** (Plushie Paws Treasure Hunter promotion, limited duration). #### **Overall Rarity**: Moderate rarity. While not as scarce as high-end rares like Partyhats, it retains exclusivity through its Treasure Hunter origins, absence of post-event re-releases, and steady hoarding by collectors. --- ### **Price History Analysis** The price trajectory of the Terrorbird Plushie has been intriguing, with explosive highs close to its release and gradual normalization. Anomalous spikes were influenced by external factors like dupes, high-profile updates, and general market ebbs. Here is the breakdown: - **January 2021**: Starting prices surged post-release due to limited supply and hype. Peak price exceeded **55M GP** during early 2021, likely fueled by the **January Dupe Glitch**, which injected GP into the economy and encouraged speculative purchases. - **March–August 2021**: Prices stabilized between **27-39M GP** as the initial hype wore off. A recovery in the post-rollback economy and attention to new updates (e.g., Rex Matriarch bosses) pulled demand elsewhere. - **Late 2021 Surge (August–October)**: A new high of **43M GP** due to the **Croesus Boss** release. This update lured fashion-scape buyers who wanted unique items for social hubs in new skilling arenas. - **2022 Declines**: By 2022, prices fell significantly, plummeting to **25K GP by December**. Two major factors contributed: 1. The **Duel Arena Removal** (January 2022) cut active GP circulation in staking communities, indirectly lowering speculative treasure-hunting funds. 2. The **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** reintroduced commons that shifted attention from discontinued/niche items. --- ### **Insights into Historical Spikes/Dips** 1. **Economic Dupes (2021)**: GP influx artificially inflated prices across all trade markets, making the Terrorbird Plushie a speculative investment vehicle. This caused peaks above **50M GP**. 2. **Large Updates (e.g., Croesus)**: High-profile community events generally revived niche market demand as players sought fashion-scaping for visibility. 3. **Massive GP Dumps (2022+):** Treasure Hunter nerfs, bond inflation, and intermittent hacks tanked market confidence across non-essential collectibles, leading to stagnation. --- ### **Price Prediction (2023–2024)** **Current Price:** ~25,000 GP (as of December 2023). Historical trends suggest moderate recovery potential in collector markets, with the following possibilities: 1. **Q4 2023 Stability (~30K GP)**: Post-Black Partyhat release, whale collectors and casual players are spending minimally due to Hero Pass backlash and trust erosion. 2. **Early 2024 (~50K–100K GP Spike)**: Any significant combat updates (March 2024) may bring visibility back to legacy treasures. However, the **Easter Dupes (April 2024)** could blunt enthusiasm if another GP dump occurs. 3. **Late 2024 (~75K GP)**: General mid-year recovery is likely as economic inflators (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth** or future gimmicks) encourage returning players and rare hoarders, rekindling long-term niches like cosmetics. #### **Recommendation**: The Plushie is a speculative long-term hold. Its low buy-in price (vs. other cosmetic items) makes it accessible to average players, though it will likely remain a low-priority rare. --- ### **Flipping Opportunities** **Current Margins**: 10%–25% depending on supply. Items like the Terrorbird Plushie see slight downward drift during passive periods, making **lowballing overnight buy offers key to flipping**. Historical highs in niche markets may widen these margins during spikes (e.g., new updates or Treasure Hunter rereleases). **Example Strategy**: - Purchase under **20K GP**, sell during high-profile updates at **30K–40K GP** (+50% returns). - Set timers around RuneScape economic announcements to maximize profits. --- ### **Supplementary Investments** Pairing the Terrorbird Plushie with similar trades enhances portfolio resilience and capital rotation: 1. **Golden Rubber Turkey**: Another Treasure Hunter-specific cosmetic from earlier promotions. Mirrors trends in price fluctuation and low entry price (~300K GP). 2. **Bun-Bun Pet Token**: Specifically appeals to similar collector demographics. Often reliant on limited releases and seasonal demand spikes during festive events. 3. **Jellyfish Follower Token**: Currently low value (~85K GP) but aligns with terrorbird trends due to overlapping fashion-scape appeal and niche rarity. --- ### **Seasonal Effects on Price** #### **Positive Outcomes:** - **Spring–Summer Events**: Major updates (like skilling bosses or combat tweaks) and Treasure Hunter tie-ins often reignite interest in cosmetic rares. - **Anniversary/Mid-Year (June–August)**: Market typically stabilizes as returning players boost collector demand. #### **Negative Outcomes:** - **January Twitch Streams**: High GP injections inflate broader markets, diminishing niche growth. Unexpected economy-breaking dupes (such as the **Scrimshaw Dupe**) trigger deflationary waves in collectibles like the Plushie. - **Post-Holiday Lulls (September–October)**: After festive gift activities, speculation dries up. Events like **Fresh Start Worlds (2022)** depress niche markets as players shift focus. --- ### **Final Thoughts** The **Terrorbird Plushie** is a fascinating case in RuneScape economics—an item once valued in millions, now relegated to an undervalued collector's niche. The plushie's cosmetic appeal coupled with current low prices make it an affordable flipping and speculative item that may see slow-but-steady appreciation over time, particularly during spikes fueled by combat/class updates.