### **Rubber Turkey Analysis** The **Rubber Turkey** is a non-tradeable cosmetic item that was originally introduced as a Thanksgiving event reward in RuneScape (RS3). Its first release coincides with the 2008 Thanksgiving event and, much like many holiday-related cosmetics, it has no combat utility or in-game bonuses—its appeal is purely nostalgic and novelty-based. Over the years, it has seen re-releases via Treasure Hunter promotions and seasonal event reruns, making it a recurring item, albeit one whose rarity can fluctuate depending on the frequency of its availability. --- ### **Release, Rarity, and Historical Value Trends** While not “rare” in the conventional sense when compared to party hats or discontinued items, the **Rubber Turkey's overall rarity** is dictated by a combination of factors: - **Artificial scarcity** from its limited method of acquisition each cycle → partly eroded by re-releases. - Item’s **niche appeal** → sought after for collections or specific appearances. - **Oversaturation risk** → frequent Treasure Hunter returns could dilute demand. Its value—a modest climb in 2021 to ~7m-11m GP before collapsing as dupes and inflation crises degraded its intrinsic worth—shows it is highly sensitive to gold supply imbalances in RuneScape. ### Notable Price Fluctuation Events: - **2021 Inflation Crisis & Dupes (Jan–Oct 2021):** Rubber Turkey reached its peak value (~11m GP) in January 2021 before its price plummeted later in the year post-Croesus' release and gold inflation surges from dupes (~4.9m GP by October). The rollback and Recovery Dupes injected excessive GP, reducing its value versus supply. - **Duel Arena removal & Fresh Start Worlds (2022):** Its slight recovery (~300k–500k GP) happened despite general anxiety over changes, suggesting collectors balanced gold dumps through nostalgia-driven purchases. - **700B+ Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023):** Continued devaluation cemented the Turkey’s floor price (1.5k GP–2.5k GP in early 2023). - **Hero Pass (Sept 2023):** Prices saw momentary stabilization (~5k GP+) as backlash against Hero Pass diverted attention from trading future-disposables on the Grand Exchange (GE). The biggest shifts in value have generally occurred after Treasure Hunter reruns, exploits (e.g. August 2024’s Max Cash exploit), or direct gold manipulation events like dupes and hack-based inflation dumps. --- ### **Current Price Trends (2024)** - Latest price: **18,119 GP (8/12/2024)** - Recovery since **1-2k floor in early 2023** shows an upward trend, possibly fueled by a nostalgic buyer base and inflation rebounding gold sinks slowing down volatility. - Major patches such as **Sanctum of Rebirth** and **Mining/Smithing rework** revitalized niche-side markets for collectibles, diverting some liquidity toward the Turkey. - **Max Cash Exploit (May 2024):** Introduced high inflation risk, spiked bond dependency. #### Projected Price Prediction (3–6 months) 1. **Base case scenario:** ~**20–25k GP range** by December 2024 as GP influx normalizes and fresh cosmetic-oriented Treasure Hunter items distract whales. Niche demand and its relative uniqueness from discontinued combinatorics keep upward inertia minimal. 2. **Risk-adjusted high inflow:** Dupes, gold inflation pressures DELETE or bulk-lure-buyer-induced stock spikes likely reverse toward below-{floor threats מן} C Stability** >