### **Shark Fin Token Overview and Rarity** The Shark Fin Token is a cosmetic consumable item introduced in RuneScape 3 through Treasure Hunter events. It grants the ability to unlock and equip a unique cosmetic animation where the player mimics swimming with a shark fin protruding from their back. This item is mostly a gimmick, appealing to collectors, fashion-scape enthusiasts, or those looking for novelty cosmetics. #### **Release Date & Rarity** The Shark Fin Token debuted during summer-themed Treasure Hunter promotions, aimed at capitalizing on seasonal hype for nautical aesthetics. While originally available through these exclusive promotions, its supply was limited, as it depended on players obtaining the token via Treasure Hunter and then selling it on the Grand Exchange. Its rarity stems from its treasure-hunter origin and the lack of sustained demand, leading to erratic supply levels. ----- ### **Price Analysis and Historical Trends** Using the price data provided, we see significant price volatility for this token between 2021 and 2024, influenced heavily by in-game economic disruptions and demand cycles. #### Key Price Points: - **July 2021:** Sharp increase from **84k to 417k** aligns with heightened summer promotions, suggesting seasonal interest boosted prices. - **2021-2022:** Spikes up to 1.8M (Feb 2021) and 1.5M (June 2022) coincide with broader economic inflation caused by dupes (January 2021 Rollback Dupe and later item floods). - **2023-2024:** Historically low prices, plummeting to 1 GP in **June 2024** before "recovering" to 62.8K in **July 2024**, which likely represents speculative flipping post-Max Cash Update (*May 2024 exploited update flooded GP*). #### **Drivers of Price Dips and Spikes** 1. **Game Economic Disruptions:** - The **January 2021 rollback dupe** and **2023-2024 GP exploits** caused meteoric highs, as disposable GP inflated prices for luxury items. When cash was saturated, novelty items like the Shark Fin Token became status-symbol purchases. - Similarly, the **Max Cash update exploit (May 2024)** likely crashed low-utility items, dropping the token briefly to 1 GP before speculative recovery. 2. **Treasure Hunter Supply Events:** - Given its Treasure Hunter origin, anytime items are re-released or bundled into prize pools (as might have happened before **2022**) demand collapses from surplus tokens entering the market. - No observable signs of a re-release between **2023-2024**, leading to niche appeal but limited trading activity. 3. **Gameplay Mechanics & Niche Cosmetics:** - Summer events and fashion-scape-driven updates boost interest cyclically. Releases like **Necromancy (August 2023)** or boss-related economic hubs shift attention away from cosmetics entirely, further depressing demand for "vanity" items like the Shark Fin Token. #### **Price Prediction (2024 and Beyond):** - **Short Term (Q4 2024):** The Shark Fin Token is unlikely to see strong recovery until another cosmetic-based event pushes its appeal. A nominal range of **50k-90k** is expected. - **Mid-Term (2025):** Seasonal demand (summer-themed promotions in June-Aug) could see incremental increases up to **150k**, assuming no direct re-releases occur. - **Long Term:** The item may serve as a baseline speculative collectible, stabilizing between **100k-250k** when summer months recur and assuming stable supply. ----- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Due to erratic supply and demand patterns: - **Current Margins:** ~30-40% for short-term flipping when buying sub-50K and reselling post-summer at ~80K. - **Speculative Margins:** Post-economic disruptions, reselling positions from "floor" prices (1 GP, as in June 2024) can lead to exponential ~+10,000% margins, assuming recovery to 100k-150k. - Flipping at **low volatility periods** (when prices hover at 60-90k) carries minimal risk, while high-risk investments occur just after game exploits or dupes. #### **Key Strategy:** - Buy **post-crash events** when confidence is low (e.g., June 2024) and liquidate during May-July months when seasonal nostalgia renews demand. - Avoid buying into speculative hype during "bubbles" (e.g., post-Dupe inflation spikes of 2021). ----- ### **Comparable Items to Invest In** For diversification and improved portfolio management, targeting similar niche or seasonal items is advantageous: 1. **Treasure Hunter Cosmetics or Tokens:** - **Crabbe or Frank Walk Animations**: Seasonal stroll animations exhibit similar demand cycles, with summer months driving sales. - **Sandcastle Hat Token & Beach-themed Items:** These align with Treasure Hunter's summer events and provide low-buy/high-resell windows. 2. **Rare or Obsolete Skilling Buffs/Tokens:** - Items like **Divine Simulacrums** or older TH-discontinued boosts occasionally spike based on event-based demand. 3. **Holiday Event Items:** - Seasonal rares such as Easter Eggs (April), Snowman Dance Tokens (December), or Halloween-themed items show annual peaks tied to nostalgia, providing cyclical margins. ----- ### **Seasonal Patterns for Shark Fin Token** - **Positive Seasons:** Late May through July. Themed consistency with "beach party" events boosts nostalgia-driven purchases. - **Negative Seasons:** February-April. Post-holiday lulls in demand and competing game-economic trends (e.g., combat/pvm updates) shift focus entirely away from cosmetics. **Conclusion:** The Shark Fin Token mirrors RuneScape's broader economic ebbs and flows, heavily influenced by significant game events and cycles of speculation. Proper investment requires closely monitoring Treasure Hunter themes and the market impact of inflationary in-game disruptions.