### Overview of the Warped Living Death Cosmetic Ability Scroll - **Item Description**: The Warped Living Death cosmetic ability scroll unlocks a visual effect for the Necromancy skill, stylizing the *Living Death* ultimate ability with grotesque, warped animations that emphasize the dark and spectral aesthetics of the Necromancy update. It is a highly sought-after cosmetic among PvMers and cosmetic collectors. - **Release Date**: Introduced on **October 17, 2024**, as part of limited-time Treasure Hunter promotions themed around Halloween and Necromancy. - **Rarity**: Extremely rare. Its limited release on Treasure Hunter, combined with strong demand for Necromancy-themed cosmetics, has kept the item in short supply. Additionally, its effectiveness as an endgame flex item has elevated its desirability within high-value player markets. ### Price Analysis and Historical Trends The item has demonstrated significant price volatility, likely driven by speculative trading, supply availability, and broader RuneScape economy dynamics. A timeline of notable price changes: - **Initial Market (October 17-19, 2024)**: Prices fluctuated wildly, starting at **150M GP** due to initial dumping by Treasure Hunter farmers. However, mass speculation and demand from Necromancy-focused players pushed it up to **299M GP** by October 17-19. - **Market Stabilization Phase (October 24-30, 2024)**: Prices settled into a more consistent band of **240-300M GP**, likely as supply peaked from Treasure Hunter participants. These fluctuations suggest competitive speculative buying and selling, with high demand from collectors. - **November Rally (November 3-14, 2024)**: In the first two weeks of November, the price reached its all-time high of **~290M GP**, spurred by anticipation of limited availability post-Halloween. However, by mid-November, a sudden drop to **255M GP** suggests broader market corrections, possibly tied to currency instability from the **GIM bank bug dupe**. The most recent dip in December to **151M GP** can be correlated with: 1. **Oversupply from resellers post-Halloween promotion expiration**. 2. **Widespread cash liquidity issues caused by dupes and exploits**, which may have discouraged high-value trades during a period of uncertainty. ### Price Prediction (Next Few Months) - **Short-Term (January-February 2025)**: Prices are likely to dip further **(120-140M GP range)** due to post-event saturation and general cash scarcity from recent dupes. Additionally, after major Treasure Hunter-promotional items, interest tends to wane. - **Mid-Term (March-April 2025)**: A modest price rebound into the **180-200M GP range** is probable, driven by stabilization of the game economy, increased speculation ahead of future Treasure Hunter events, and renewed Necromancy usage with combat updates. - **Long-Term Outlook**: In similar trends observed with rare skill cosmetics (e.g., *Eldritch Cross*, *Dark Onslaught* abilities), the Warped Living Death scroll may return to **~300M GP or higher** by Halloween 2025 if no re-release occurs. Key factors that will drive further pricing: 1. Whether Jagex reintroduces the scroll in promotions (diminishing rarity). 2. General recovery or further disruptions in the RuneScape economy. 3. Possible nerfs, buffs, or further aesthetic emphasis on *Living Death*. ### Flipping Margins - From the historical data, during its stabilized phase (~**240M-300M GP**), daily margins for flips often ranged from **5-15M GP** depending on the volume and time commitment. - Opportunistic flippers can look for panic listings during troughs. For instance, in November, short-lived sales at **199M GP**, resold for **290M GP**, suggested a **90M GP margin** for high-risk traders. - With recent dips into **151M GP**, flipping opportunities may widen again as speculators buy low and sell during a mid-term rebound (~**180-200M GP**). ### Related Items to Watch Given the overlap in buyer demographics, here are similar speculative investments/cosmetics: 1. **Eldritch Cross Ability Codex**: A Shadow-themed ranged ability, it shares the combination of rarity with combat-flex appeal. Historically volatile but high-value. 2. **Deathwalk Override Set**: A Necromancy-adjacent cosmetic also released during Halloween events, tied to the RuneCoin store, making it comparable for cross-demand during holiday-themed trading spikes. 3. **Dark Onslaught Ability Scroll**: Another cosmetic skill ability (Magic-focused), originally highly volatile, later saw substantial price growth due to NMZ combat buffs. These items target similar demographics (high-spending PvMers, skill-flexorians, and cosmetic collectors). ### Seasonal Price Advice - **Positive Outlook Seasons**: Items of this nature perform well during Halloween, combat-focused updates, or Necromancy expansions. Periods of economic stability and liquidity (e.g., post-Easter, mid-summer) historically bolster high-value trading markets. - **Negative Outlook Seasons**: Periods immediately following event releases or major dupes (e.g., January/February post-holiday depressions). These are marked by over-trading and cash hoarding, creating lower price floors. If flipping or holding the item, align with Halloween 2025 for potentially massive returns but avoid speculative overspending during economic downturns like the current one. For now, a **buy-and-hold strategy targeting sub-140M GP** prices should yield high margins long-term.