### **Warped Touch of Death Scroll – Overview** The **Warped Touch of Death** is a highly sought-after cosmetic ability scroll, adding a dark, heavily warped visual effect to the Touch of Death combat ability (a Necromancy ultimate introduced in 2023). It grants uniqueness to Necromancy gameplay, resonating deeply with players who favor dark or gothic aesthetics. - **Release Date:** August 2024, coinciding with the first anniversary of the Necromancy skill and the introduction of limited-edition rewards on Treasure Hunter. - **Rarity:** Introduced as a rare promotional item in the "Necromantic Surge" Treasure Hunter event, slightly more obtainable than ultra-rares but still uncommon. The item became more elusive as time passed, with no re-releases as of November 2024. - **Current Price Analysis (November 2024):** - Peak: 494,995,000 GP (Nov 15, 2024) - Current Price: 435,696,000 GP (Nov 23, 2024) - Trend: Steady growth, spiking mid-November due to speculative demand and Treasure Hunter cycling towards lower-tier rewards. ### **Factors Behind Price Trends** 1. **Necromancy Skill Influence:** The Touch of Death ability is central to Necromancy combat rotations, and the Warped variant grants aesthetic prestige to any Necromancer, ensuring continuous demand. 2. **Historical Treasure Hunter Trends:** Promotional items tied to Treasure Hunter often see steep early depreciation as players dump their loot, followed by longer-term growth due to natural scarcity when they leave the reward pool. The Warped Touch of Death currently aligns with this trend. 3. **Rising GP Levels from Dupes and Recent Events:** The **GIM bank bug (Nov 2024)** likely caused the mid-November spike. Duped GP inflates the economy, concentrating in high-value cosmetics, particularly those with functional ties (like Necromancy-based scrolls). Expect further price volatility in the short term due to these artificially inflated demand cycles. 4. **Hero Pass Backlash and Neglect of MTX Updates:** The Hero Pass (September 2023) backlash led to decreased player interest in MTX re-releases. Developers remain cautious about over-monetizing existing promotional items, minimizing re-release likelihood of the Warped Touch of Death scroll, which buoys its scarcity-driven growth. ### **Price Prediction (Next 6 Months)** Using historical trends and the current market trajectory: 1. **Short-Term:** Warped Touch of Death is likely to rise to **500M–550M GP** through December 2024, as players' holiday GP injections increase luxury spending. Expect a price correction in early 2025 when Treasure Hunter promotions inevitably disrupt the market with alternative attractive items. 2. **Mid-Term:** Q1 of 2025 will probably stabilize prices around **480M–520M GP**, barring major MTX updates or patches introducing similar items. If Necromancy content receives expansions (likely ahead of RS3’s next Summer update), it may re-enter a growth cycle toward **600M by mid-2025.** ### **Flipping Opportunities** The Warped Touch of Death has strong flipping margins due to its demand volatility: - **Short Flip Margins:** Typically 10–25M GP over 48–72 hours, especially during Treasure Hunter promos or mid-month cash injections like Jagex's **1B drops** (April 2024). - **Ideal Buy Price:** Look for dips near **400–420M GP**, such as after Treasure Hunter events dilute the market. - **Sell Target:** **470M+ GP** based on current investor appetite for rare cosmetics. ### **Complementary Items to Invest In** For a balanced portfolio in the Necromancy and Treasure Hunter rarities markets, consider these items: 1. **Dark Onyx Core (469M GP):** Shares thematic similarities as a high-value Necromancy cosmetic used in overrides. Similar scarcity trend. 2. **Death’s Scythe (311M GP):** Released alongside Necromancy’s launch; prices consistently rise due to its low popularity at launch but increasing desirability now. 3. **Cryptbloom Armor (400M–410M GP):** A meta-relevant high-end combat armor likely to grow alongside the Warped Touch of Death if Necromancy remains a competitive skill. ### **Seasonal Market Considerations** 1. **Positive Price Influences:** - **Holidays (December/June):** Increased player spending via bonds. - **Post-Promotion Dry Periods:** Markets stabilize as Treasure Hunter cycles down. - **Skill Expansion Updates:** Necromancy updates could directly tie into heightened interest. 2. **Negative Price Influences:** - **January-February Doldrums:** Historically weak periods due to player attrition post-holidays. - **Treasure Hunter Reruns (Unlikely):** A re-release of Necromantic-themed content sharply impacts speculative items like this scroll. ### **Conclusion** The Warped Touch of Death cosmetic scroll represents a high-value speculative item strongly tied to Necromancy's evergreen appeal. Short-term flipping remains viable but closely tied to player-driven speculation and inflation events. Mid- to long-term investments appear particularly favorable, as scarcity-driven cosmetics backed by core gameplay mechanics outperform idle reskins. The broader market behavior of similar MTX cosmetics suggests peak pricing moments during the next six months, driven by continued demand and no sign of diminished exclusivity. Watch for evidence of re-releases or duplicate designs as warning signals for a potential plateau.