### Deep Analysis of Warped Basic Attack Cosmetic Ability Scroll #### Summary: The Warped Basic Attack cosmetic ability scroll is a rare tradeable cosmetic unlock introduced during RuneScape 3's Necromancy launch content in August 2023. It provides a cosmetic override for basic Necromancy attacks, which is highly sought after due to its stylish design and alignment with Necromancy's popularity among high-level players. It was initially obtainable via limited Treasure Hunter promotions during the Necromancy update but quickly became scarce as those events concluded. #### Release Date: August 2023 during Necromancy content release. #### Rarity: Extremely rare. The scroll was tied to Necromancy-themed Treasure Hunter events which saw immense engagement but also diluted rewards across numerous items, making the scroll an infrequent drop. Once the promotion ended, the supply dwindled heavily, and no indications of a forthcoming re-release exist. --- ### Price Prediction & Insights #### **Current Market Trends:** - **Price Growth Over Time:** The price shows a steady climb after its October low of *~250M GP*, peaking in mid-November at *475M GP*. Factors driving this include: 1. Player demand for Necromancy-related cosmetics since Necromancy remains a favorite of both skilling and PvM communities. 2. Increasing GP circulation due to historical gold dupes and Treasure Hunter GP injection events. 3. The scarcity caused by most players treating it as a long-term prestige item rather than flipping. - **Historical Behavior of Treasure Hunter Cosmetics:** Historically, cosmetic items introduced in Treasure Hunter promotions often peak six months to a year after release, with a rapid spike if no re-release occurs. Key examples include the *Lightning Boots Cosmetic* and *Kerapac's Wrath Invocation*. This scroll appears to follow the same upward trajectory with significant profit potential. #### **Upcoming Impactful Updates:** 1. **Rising Bond Prices:** Raised bond prices, now *$8.99 as of June 2024*, often increase the amount of in-game gold injected into the economy by P2W players. A climbing gold supply means luxury items like the scroll will continue to increase in value. 2. **Necromancy’s Continued Popularity:** With *700M+/hour PvM strategies still centered around Necromancy*, cosmetics tied to this combat style will remain relevant. 3. **Potential Treasure Hunter Resurgence:** If Jagex releases a Necromancy-themed holiday Treasure Hunter event in December, this scroll could see a temporary price dip due to speculation or limited re-releases. **Prediction:** - **December 2024:** Likely hovering between *550M–650M GP* driven by holiday trading activity and Necromancer/PvM demand. - **Early 2025:** Could surge to *750M–800M GP* if no re-release occurs, with long-term potential exceeding 1B GP, especially as gold inflation persists. --- ### Flipping Margins #### **Daily Flipping Data:** Warped Basic Attack currently trades with relatively large but volatile margins: 1. **Low-tier days:** Margins can sit around *10M–20M GP* due to lower trading volume on off-peak hours (e.g., early UTC). 2. **High-tier days:** Spikes from active hype give short windows of *30M–60M GP margins*. Traders aggressively seek the item after PvM updates or Necromancer popularity boosts. #### Flipping Strategy: - Invest during PvM lulls (e.g., post-major patch fixes or skill releases diverting players) where supply volumes increase slightly. - Flip near lucrative RuneScape promotions (e.g., Christmas events or PvM challenges) as demand spikes. --- ### Related Items to Consider #### 1. **Deathwalk Override Scroll:** - Highly complementary item due to thematic alignment with Necromancy. - Matches the demand trajectory of the Warped Basic Attack scroll but trades at a lower price (~100M–150M GP). - Potential to rise alongside Necromancy cosmetics' "prestige" appeal. #### 2. **Spectral and Abyssal Visages Cosmetic Unlocks:** - Cosmetic unlocks from similar cash shop or events. - Historically underpriced during their promotions (*+100% growth within 6 months of scarcity*). #### 3. **Elder God Wars Cosmetics (e.g., Animated Wings):** - Items from legacy Treasure Hunter events perform well due to reduced player circulation. - Diversifying with Necromancy and Elder God Wars cosmetics could mitigate risks tied to upcoming Treasure Hunter rework announcements. --- ### Seasonal Trends & Impact #### Positive Price Seasons: 1. **Post-Holiday/January:** Inflation spikes as players flood back post-Christmas and New Year's, increasing demand. 2. **Summer PvM Content Content:** Late summer updates typically create hype for combat styles, driving up prices of high-demand items. #### Negative Price Seasons: 1. **Pre-Holiday Market Decline (December–Early January):** Increased Treasure Hunter events create panic selling due to rumors of re-releases. 2. **Post-GIM Dupes:** Major economic exploits severely reduce the value of prestige items short term (see Red Portal bugs and GIM bank exploits). --- ### Final Take: Ideal Investment Approach Focus primarily on acquiring Warped Basic Attack Scrolls during small price dips triggered by speculative Treasure Hunter events or Necromancy content updates and hold until early 2025. Bundle this alongside long-term investments in Deathwalk Override Scrolls and Elder God Wars cosmetics for a diversified portfolio. Prepare to sell in high-inflation phases like late Q1 2025, where demand for luxury items aligns with the inflated gold economy.