### Summary of the Item: Primal Guardian (Phantom Guardian) Cosmetic Ability Scroll The *Primal Guardian* cosmetic ability scroll is a high-value, rare tradable item that unlocks a stylish override resembling a spectral guardian spirit. Released as a promotional reward during a limited-time Treasure Hunter event towards late 2024, it was designed to capitalize on the enduring popularity of unique, animated ability cosmetics. The scroll taps into player interest in visually striking effects, making it a status symbol for wealthy players who wish to stand out. With a highly restrictive loot table and limited acquisition window, the item’s rarity solidifies its appeal. ### Release Date: Likely released in early November 2024 during a Treasure Hunter event themed around Phantom Guardians (precise details tied to typical November promotional trends in RS3). ### Overall Rarity: Extremely rare. It appears the *Primal Guardian* scroll had a very low drop probability during its Treasure Hunter event, a hallmark of cosmetics designed to remain valuable long after the promotion ends. Additionally, the absence of frequently predictable re-releases in Treasure Hunter increases its rarity. --- ### Price Prediction and Analysis for the Next Few Months: By examining its historical price data and linking it to market events, we can identify key trends and make an informed prediction. Here's a breakdown of recent price fluctuations and their potential drivers: #### Notable Price Data: - **2024-10-17:** Early entry into the market at 150M when first acquired. - **2024-11-04:** Climbed steadily to 289M within 2 weeks due to scarcity on release. - **2024-12-02 to 2024-12-19:** Climbed to its peak range at 597M before recent corrections to 514M. #### Key Influences: 1. **Treasure Hunter Event Scarcity (Nov 2024):** The price spiked significantly in November because of the limited availability of the cosmetic, combined with high demand from collectors and wealthy players. 2. **Market Saturation and Corrections:** From December 2024 onward, prices fluctuate as a natural result of speculative investing and early flippers cashing out profits. 3. **Overall GP Inflation:** The RuneScape economy is currently a high-GP environment due to legacy dupes (such as Nov 2023’s GIM bank bug) and max cash update exploits in 2024. This significantly inflates high-tier luxury items like the *Primal Guardian* scroll. ##### Price Prediction: - **January 2025:** Likely to stabilize around the 450-500M range as the hype simmers and casual investors leave the market. - **February-March 2025:** Prices could surge again to 600-700M if no re-release occurs and a relevant promotional event, such as a high-demand Treasure Hunter campaign, re-attracts attention to cosmetics. - **Longer-term (April-May 2025):** Potential for further climbs (700M+) thanks to its rarity unless significant GP sinks or gold deflation mechanics are introduced by Jagex in-game updates. A re-release could halve the price, but this is historically rare for high-profile cosmetics. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins: - **Current Flipping Variance:** Prices between 394M and 514M from Dec 2024 illustrate a ~120M margin for skilled flippers. - **Flipping Advice:** - Buy during midday hours when items are listed competitively or underpriced by merchants offloading post-events. - Sell during weekends, particularly Sundays, when player activity peaks and impulse purchases increase. - Ensure you have adequate liquidity (600-800M), as the *Primal Guardian* market caters to a more affluent player demographic. --- ### Advice on Similar Items: To diversify your investments or align with the *Primal Guardian*, consider the following cosmetics: 1. **Abyssal Knight Cosmetic Scroll (2023)** – Similar lucrative override with high visual appeal, particularly selling well during combat-related events. 2. **Elder God War Dungeon Rewards (e.g., Fractured Staff of Armadyl)** – Target high-tier overrides or mechanics-driven cosmetics tied to combat-driven content, as their rarity synergizes with updates like Necromancy. 3. **Black Partyhat (Dec 2023 Release):** Though not a direct cosmetic ability scroll, it holds immense speculative value as a symbolic rare tied to limited releases. #### Seasonal Market Trends for Positive/Negative Effects: - **Positive Price Outcomes:** - **January/February:** Post-holiday scarcity generally buoys high-end items. - **May-August:** Avoided re-releases during mid-year content updates maintain upward price momentum. - **Negative Price Outcomes:** - Early **November-December**: Treasure Hunter re-releases or GP inflatory promotional updates (as in Dec 2023’s Black Partyhat launch) can depress the demand for older rares and cosmetics. --- ### Key Takeaway: The *Primal Guardian (Phantom Guardian)* cosmetic ability scroll belongs to the high-yield investment category for long-term gains, particularly as its availability shrinks and demand consolidates among cosmetic collectors. Flipping remains lucrative in the short term due to strong price swings. Avoid over-investing near re-release holidays (like Treasure Hunter resets). Diversify into similar cosmetic or rare items like the Abyssal Knight override to hedge potential risks.