### Summary: Pumpkin Souls Cosmetic Ability Scroll The Pumpkin Souls scroll is a Halloween-themed cosmetic ability in RuneScape 3 introduced in 2024 via Treasure Hunter during the Halloween promotional event. It allows players to unlock a cosmetic override where their Prayer animation is infused with pumpkin-themed visuals and ghosts, making it a highly sought-after item by collectors and cosmetic enthusiasts. **Release Date:** October 2024 (Halloween event). **Rarity:** Due to its seasonal release and Treasure Hunter exclusivity, the Pumpkin Souls scroll is considered rare, but its rarity primarily stems from limited availability during its original release window and Treasure Hunter mechanics favoring pay-to-win. ### Historical Price Trends Analysis Through its lifecycle, this scroll has fluctuated heavily, particularly influenced by item hype post-release, market saturation, and Treasure Hunter mechanics. Below is a breakdown of key price movements recorded: - October 24, 2024: Initial price peaked at **75M GP** following release. - October 27, 2024: Price dropped to **28.8M GP**, likely from market flooding as more players opened Treasure Hunter keys in the Halloween promotion. - November 2, 2024: Stabilized at **34-35M GP**, likely as the novelty of the Halloween event wound down and new items entered Treasure Hunter events. - November 4-17, 2024: Prices rebounded upward, resting at **50M GP**, driven by scarcity after the event ended and Treasure Hunter no longer provided the item. These upward rebounds mirror historical trends for seasonal treasure-hunter items such as the *Ghostly Walk animation scroll* and *Pumpkin Lantern weapon override*, which tend to increase steadily after event conclusion but stabilize as the market adjusts. ### Key Factors Behind Price Spikes/Dips 1. **Treasure Hunter Saturation:** Early massive supply from Treasure Hunter keys leads to a steep initial dip, as seen by the plunge from 75M to under 30M in days. 2. **Post-Event Exclusivity:** After the promotional event ends, scarcity and collector demand significantly boost prices. 3. **Speculation:** Merchanting activity, particularly by investors and flippers anticipating post-event scarcity, increases volatility. 4. **Gold Injection & Economy Instability:** Market events, such as the **November 2024 GIM bank dupe**, may have injected additional wealth into the economy, causing a slight upward push post-dip. ### Price Prediction for the Coming Months Given its current stabilization at **50M GP**: - **December 2024:** Expect the price to hover between **48-55M GP**, driven by early collector demand and Christmas economic activity (e.g., Treasure Hunter releases temporarily diverting attention). - **February 2025-April 2025:** Anticipate gradual appreciation to **65M+ GP**, following trends established by other promotional overrides (e.g., Ghostly Walk), as supply continues to dwindle. - **Long-term Prediction:** By Halloween 2025, the Pumpkin Souls scroll could breach **75M-100M GP**, assuming no re-release occurs. However, a reintroduction during Halloween 2025 would potentially crater the value back to **30-40M GP**. ### Flipping Margins Typical flipping margins for the scroll fluctuate in the range of **1-5M GP per trade** based on current trends: - Buying during market lulls (e.g., Treasure Hunter promotional downtime or while competing rares dominate attention) at **48-50M GP**. - Selling to late adopters as post-event scarcity sets in, aiming for **55-58M GP** short-term margins. ### Similar Items to Invest In For similar high-potential investments, prioritize other event-specific collectible scrolls and overrides: 1. **Ghostly Walk Animation Scroll:** A Halloween 2022 cosmetic currently worth **45M GP**, with a clear historical trend of price increases after its event. 2. **Pumpkin Lantern Weapon Override (2023):** Another Halloween seasonal, appreciated in price from 35M to 60M GP over one year. 3. **Snow Parasite Pet Token:** A Christmas seasonal (2023) token currently under **25M GP**, with gradual increases post-event. ### Seasonal Influences on Price Outcomes #### Positive Outcomes: - **Post-event markets (November-January):** Seasonal scarcity supports price rebounds, with collectors and investors fueling demand. - **Pre-Halloween markets (September-October):** Anticipation for the seasonal aesthetic drives renewed interest, especially closer to related events. #### Negative Outcomes: - **Re-releases:** Jagex frequently re-releases cosmetics in Treasure Hunter, which can crater prices. A Pumpkin Souls scroll reintroduction during Halloween 2025 is the most significant downside risk to this investment. - **Economic disruptions:** Massive gold injections (e.g., dupes like the *Max Cash exploit*) may cause inflationary spikes followed by volatility. ### Investment Strategy 1. **Timing:** Enter the market during December when demand is lower, targeting purchases around **48-52M GP**. 2. **Monitor:** Watch Treasure Hunter updates for potential re-releases or competing promotional items diluting rarity. 3. **Diverse Portfolio:** Combine Pumpkin Souls with investments in complementary seasonal items (e.g., Ghostly Walk) to hedge against re-release risks. 4. **Exit:** Consider selling in February-April when collectors and flippers dominate the market, pushing prices 20-30% higher. By following historical seasonal patterns and event economics, the Pumpkin Souls scroll presents an attractive short to medium-term investment opportunity with manageable risks.