### **Item Overview: Masterwork 2h Sword** #### **Summary and Release** The Masterwork 2h Sword is part of the trim masterwork smithing upgrade path, released with the *Mining & Smithing Rework* on January 7, 2019. It's a tier 92 melee weapon widely sought by PvM enthusiasts due to its high damage potential and versatility in content such as high-tier bosses and elite dungeons. Fully degradable, it must be repaired using masterwork plate, making upkeep expensive and ensuring its primary value comes from player demand for powerful weapons. #### **Rarity and Market Behavior** While technically untradeable in its standard form, the sword becomes tradeable when converted into augmented or alternative variants (primarily un-augmented trimmed versions). The time-intensive and costly production process (requiring masterwork bars, concentrated alloy bars, and +99 Smithing) maintains its rarity, limiting oversaturation. #### **Recent Price Analysis** From the dataset provided, the sword's pricing in 2024 fluctuates significantly between 200M and 1B gold, with notable clusters and volatility. Recent prices spiked dramatically on August 12, 2024, coinciding with the *Mining & Smithing Rework revisit*, which likely caused temporary excitement and demand for reworked weapons. This inflated prices briefly to 1B GP but subsided almost immediately within 2 weeks. Smaller spikes in late December also demonstrate reactionary price inflation to in-game updates and end-of-year PvM events where players optimize gear for bossing marathons. ### **Recent Historical Price Drivers and Correlations** Several key events in RuneScape history have contributed to systemic price shifts: 1. **Gold inflation and dupes:** The *Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)* injected trillions into the economy, causing T92 and T95 items to inflate. This initially spiked prices but has since added volatility due to supply gluts. 2. **Combat Updates (March 2024):** Necromancy changes in 2023 and subsequent combat rework boosted demand for weapons such as the Masterwork 2h Sword, which synergizes in hybrid setups. 3. **Mining & Smithing Update (Aug 2024):** The re-release added temporary demand from PvMers looking for optimized weapon setups. This caused a sharp *price spike to 1B GP* before settling back into the 300-400M range. 4. **Seasonal Demand:** Late December 2024 prices spiked to 420M due to holiday PvM increases during Double XP weekends or festive bossing events (e.g., Feast of Festivities). ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** **Price Forecast (Jan-Mar 2025):** - **Short-Term (Jan 2025):** Prices are expected to stabilize between **320M and 380M**, with ongoing PvM metas post-Necklace of Salamancy quest updates. Minimal artificial inflation expected unless new bugs or gold dupes occur. - **Mid-Term (Feb 2025):** Pre-Spring events often affect the market negatively as PvPers and casual skilling dominate gameplay. Expect potential dips to **270M-320M**. - **End of Q1 (Mar 2025):** Combat rebalancing may increase sustained player interest in top-tier melee setups, pushing prices again to **350M-400M.** ### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Masterwork 2h Sword is a high-value, medium-volume item ideal for flipping. Recent **flipping margins** from price data analysis suggest spreads between **20M-40M GP** are possible during major troughs and peaks (e.g., Dec 20's fluctuation from 311M to 400M within hours). Players with large capital reserves can focus on intraday volatility or a long-term hold during dips below 300M GP. ### **Complementary Investments** Investors should consider diversifying with these related items: 1. **Trimmed Masterwork Armor Sets:** Like the 2h Sword, prices are heavily tied to Mining-Smithing updates. Their tradeable pieces are lower-risk commodities during PvM heavy patches. 2. **Elder Rune Bars and Smithable Materials:** These correlate with Masterwork item crafting; notable crafting patches or material-demand updates often indirectly raise weapon prices. 3. **T95 Alternatives (e.g., Abyssal Scourge):** Consider weapons such as the Abyssal Scourge, particularly if melee metas shift toward faster dual-wield options instead of slow two-handers. ### **Seasonal Trends: Positive and Negative Outcomes** - **Positive Outcomes (Winter and Late Summer):** December typically incentivizes PvM growth due to holidays and active seasonal events, while *Summer updates* (like Sanctum of Rebirth) historically drive weapon demand spikes. - **Negative Outcomes (Spring):** Player activity typically leans toward casual gameplay or skilling (e.g., Easter Eggs or Treasure Hunter), causing potential price dips in combat weapons. Avoid speculative purchases from February to May unless predicting specific PvM-centric updates. ### **Closing Insights** The Masterwork 2h Sword operates as a bellwether for RuneScape weapon economics—its rarity and desirability cement its place as a "premium" melee weapon. Short-term flipping opportunities are strong given holiday volatility, and long-term investment is viable before periodic Mining-Smithing or combat updates. Stay ahead by tying purchases/sales to game patch expectations and seasonal trends while watching global economy changes (e.g., dupes).