### **Primal Pickaxe +5 Overview** The Primal Pickaxe +5 is one of the highest-tier pickaxes available in RuneScape 3, designed specifically for optimal mining efficiency. It is categorized as a T90 augmentable pickaxe requiring 90 Mining and Smithing to wield and enhance. Players commonly seek the +5 version for skilling optimization because it offers slightly faster mining rates and additional perks when augmented (such as Furnace, Honed, or Prosper). #### **Release Date and Rarity** - First introduced with **Daemonheim's dungeons** as part of the Dungeoneering rewards, the base Primal Pickaxe originally gained attention as one of the finest mining tools for its time. However, the enhanced **Primal Pickaxe +5** became available following **Mining and Smithing's rework on August 12, 2024**, which streamlined item enhancement. - It requires Mining Masterwork Crystals and substantial resources—limiting accessibility. Its rarity is directly tied to the cost of materials and the time-intensive Smithing upgrades needed. #### **Recent Price Trends** From the dataset provided, we see clear fluctuations in its price due to both player-driven factors and game updates. Let’s break it down: 1. **Initial Plunge to 1B GP (August 12, 2024)**: - Early exaggerations in pricing post-rework were likely speculative hysteria based on Mining/Smithing overhaul hype. Some players hoarded or manipulated market listing prices at launch. 2. **Spike to 4.2M GP** (August 15, 2024): - Hype settles; realistic demand balances supply. The removal of OSRS deathmatching diminished gold farming, stabilizing instant volumes of GP in circulation. 3. **Downtrend Following Slow Septembers**: - As time passes, prices hover lower due to widespread crafting/supply entering the market through high-level players rushing to sell enhanced versions, creating oversaturation. 4. **Sudden September Collapse to 1.6M GP**: - Players anticipate **Sanctum of Rebirth (late July 2024)** and invest heavily; as this content is completed, liquidation inflates supplies and significantly drops prices. #### **Patterns and Likely Correlations** - Mining/Smithing content caused the initial price spikes. - Drastic price collapses correlate with **gold dupes or exploits**, particularly markets affected by August–October turmoil (e.g., 9/5/2023 Hero Pass backlash and 9/7/2023 Carlyle sale aftermath). - By late 2024, **low demand due to endgame stagnation** and diminished gold in circulation impacts pricing steeply. --- ### **Price Prediction for Primal Pickaxe +5** Historical patterns and known September-November trends suggest the following trajectory: 1. **Immediate Future (~Nov-Dec 2024)**: - Prices will stabilize near **1.5M-1.8M GP** due to current GIM-related dupes inflating gold circulation, leading to more pickaxes entering the market. However, dwindling number of active crafters reduces novelties. - Anticipate slight holiday inflation from casual users returning to buy skilling tools post-Black Partyhat launch (price range ~2.2M by early December). 2. **Longer-Term Outlook (~1Q 2025)**: - Gold sinks (e.g., Treasure Hunter tweaks) cut accessible cash flow. This stabilizes prices around **2.5-3M GP**, provided Jagex proceeds with GP deflation strategies (diary sinks, adjusted TH rates). - If no further major Mining/Smithing updates occur, demand will slowly taper in favor of future updates. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Market flipping opportunities depend on previously identified trends: - Short-term (1-2 days): Around **140k-250k GP margins** by buying during early-week lows (Sunday-Tuesday) and reselling during weekend skilling demand (Friday-Saturday). - Long-term (weeks-months): Buyouts around **1.5M GP** during widespread content lulls (like Nov-Dec 2024) allow resells around **2.3-2.8M GP** in small to medium supply fluctuations. Don’t overextend investments, as oversupply from Mining bots could stagnate prices further. --- ### **Alternative Investments** If you want to diversify into similar assets, consider these options: 1. **T90+ Pickaxes**: - Items like Elder Rune Pickaxe +5 (similar tier, lower demand but also more stable due to widespread accessibility). - Great to hold during Mining-focused events like Dwarven Miner promos. 2. **Skilling Weapon/Crafting Tools**: - **Crystal Mattock**: Tied to Archaeology and less volatile but surges during training holidays (like Christmas events). - **Refined Masterwork Bars**: Stable investments, as Smithing skill-maxers consistently need them for Primal upgrades. 3. **Rare Materials**: - **Mining Masterwork Crystals** tend to spike unpredictably when Smithing updates (e.g., Primal crafting surges or future tier rollouts) occur. --- ### **Seasonal Expectations** - **Positive Price Seasons:** Early months (January – March) following updates that sync with **New Year's skilling events.** Mining nodes and Treasure Hunter promotions drive surges in tool demand. - **Negative Price Seasons:** August–September is predictably weak, as summer brings gameplay lulls, market saturation, and exploit-fueled excess inventory. Understanding the effects of player motivation cycles and Jagex’s often-unpredictable update schedule will help gauge when to buy and sell the Primal Pickaxe +5 or comparable items efficiently.