### Summary of the **Manuscript of Amascut**
The Manuscript of Amascut is a consumable lore item introduced alongside the **Sanctum of Rebirth** update on **July 22, 2024**. It focuses on expanding RuneScape's narrative surrounding Amascut (The Devourer) and complements the lore behind the Tombs of Amascut content introduced during questlines and Necromancy-related updates. When consumed, it provides **40 pages** for the **Book of Amascut**, which boosts experience, combat, and Necromancy-specific benefits while also serving as a tradeable resource appealing to PvMers and lore enthusiasts. It rapidly gained attention upon release due to its lore-rich connections to Zarosian and Kharidian desert storylines, making it a relatively hot commodity.
The immediate availability after release, combined with a surge in supply, resulted in fluctuating prices as players adjusted to its utility. However, its rarity isn't limited—its consistent drop sources in the Sanctum of Rebirth ensure ample supply through high-level Farming, Thieving, and Slayer integrations.
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### Price Trends and Influences
#### Historical Data Insights:
- **Price Volatility:**
- **Initial Price Surge (July 22-23, 2024):** Upon release, excitement for the item caused inflated prices of **~1,194,000 GP**, typical for new items as players speculated their usage and value.
- **Market Correction (August 2024):** Sanctioned over-supply led to a rapid dip, with lows reported around **311,754 GP** on August 20, 2024.
- **Later Stabilization (September 2024):** A rebound to **555,021 GP** occurred as supplies began integrating into the economy, and RuneScape gold inflation pressures artificially buoyed prices.
#### Key Influences:
1. **Sanctum of Rebirth (Release Event, July 22, 2024):**
- Supplies flooded the Grand Exchange once players farmed manuscripts from the Sanctum bosses.
- Market capitalization during release saw opportunistic flippers snatch up early profits.
2. **Bond Inflation (Increasing Gold Demand):**
- Bonds rose in cash value to **$8.99 (June 25, 2024)**, increasing in-game GP circulation. This likely contributed to Manuscripts’ artificial stabilization in **August/September 2024** amid gold inflation forcing price parity.
3. **Necromancy’s Meta Influence (August 2023):**
- Necromancy's expansion has steadily added an ecosystem where consumables like the **Manuscript** feed books (passive buffs). As demand aligns more consistently with PvM metas, prices avoid bottoming out entirely.
4. **Item Duping Scandals:**
- The **GIM bug (Nov 1, 2024)** could create uncertainty. Duped resources may destabilize portions of high-tier consumables, including Manuscripts.
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### Price Prediction (Next Few Months):
1. **Q4 2024 – Stabilization:**
- Expect prices to level between **550k to 650k GP**, as the initially high utility market adjusts while farming rates keep competition steady. Constant supply keeps speculative spikes low.
2. **Early Q1 2025 – Volatility Potential:**
- Anticipate drops back towards **450k to 500k GP** if Jagex adds minor nerfs to farm rates or introduces alternative consumables post-PvM patches. If new Necromancy content isn't expanded on, general demand will taper.
3. **External Wildcards:**
- Future Treasure Hunter promotions adding similar item rewards, or gold inflation events, could rapidly thrust prices up (+30%). Conversely, new bosses introducing alternative lore drops may cannibalize the item’s long-term use, leading to dips below 400k GP.
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### Flipping Margins:
#### Key Observations:
- Flipping margins range between **30k-50k GP** due to the relatively high liquidity and low bid/ask gaps on this mid-tier consumable.
- Efficient flipping occurs during event-driven price swings, such as around **Necromancy Weekly Patches**. Price differences widen marginally before stabilizing again, providing buyers with short-term benefits.
#### Ideal Method:
- Utilize **Buy Offers** during downtime periods to control input costs (e.g., when global player activity lessens during UTC mornings). Sell aggressively during Saturday/Sunday peaks when PvM and Necromancy-heavy content dominate.
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### Complementary Items for Diversification:
1. **Scripture of Bik:**
- Similarly tied to Farming and Necromancy synergies but often underappreciated. Low buy-in prices make this suitable as a comparable low volatility asset.
2. **Inert Adrastean Remnants:**
- Tied to the **Necromancy altar crafting economy**, these components spike alongside PvM meta updates. They ride similar update-dictated demand fluctuations.
3. **Deathspore Arrow Tips:**
- Serves as an analogous PvM ingredient but within the ranged category. High turnover makes it synergistic for cash flow alongside flipping Manuscripts.
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### Timing Recommendations:
#### Positive Demand Seasons:
- **December Holiday Events:** Treasure Hunter overhauls and surge in active players boost income circulation, raising volume.
- **Easter Releases Post-Patches (March to April):** Consumables spike as new PvM-driven mechanics heighten item priority.
#### Negative Outlook Seasons:
- **August-October:** Summer lull combined with steady supply keeps prices flat or dips moderately unless boosted by content drops.
- **Mega Treasure Hunter Events (Random Surprises):** Risk during these instances lies in over-saturation dampening consistent profits.
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By leveraging trend awareness and aligning flexibility during Necromancer-driven PvM changes, the **Manuscript of Amascut** provides ample opportunities for flipping/consolidation strategies.
Ely Intelligence Analysis