### **Scripture of Amascut Analysis** **1. Summary & Rarity:** The Scripture of Amascut was released on **22nd July 2024** as a reward from the **Sanctum of Rebirth**, a high-tier Necromancy boss encounter. The Scripture itself is a pocket slot item that provides a passive combat effect alongside stacking the **Necromancy surge in popularity**. Its active effect occasionally deals **area-of-effect shadow damage** and buffs critical Necromancy attacks with a fiery thematic aesthetic related to Amascut's lore. When the Sanctum of Rebirth launched, the drop was rare given the high difficulty of farming this boss; it remains distinctly uncommon, though farming efficiency has pushed its rarity down gradually. Initially, the item was overvalued due to **early scarcity during the first weeks of drop influx**. Prices peaked at **300M GP (July 22nd, 2024)** but declined as casual players mastered the boss mechanics, and more Scriptures entered the economy. --- ### **2. Price Prediction, Analysis of Historical Trends, and Influencing Factors** #### **Price Data Observations (2024):** 1. **Initial Launch Spike (July 22 - July 26):** Release hype and novelty demand drove prices from **300M** to a peak of **150M-49M over just a week.** 2. **Post-Hype Decline (August):** Efficient farming caused substantial drops to **13M GP** by mid-August. 3. **Rebound (Mid-August to Early September):** Increased accessibility due to Necromancy's growing popularity and stronger meta value brought renewed demand. Prices ranged from **6.9M -12M**, peaking briefly at 16M post-M&S Rework. 4. **Crash (Late September-October):** We see a steady price crash by October's end at **3.6M GP**, likely due to saturation and cheaper Necromancy alternatives stabilizing the economy. #### **Predicted Outlook (November - Q1 2025):** - **Short-Term (November 2024 - January 2025):** The Scriptures will likely stabilize around **3-4M GP**, assuming no major buffs to Necromancy combat or Scriptures are implemented. The recent **GIM Bank bug and max cash economy volatility** may spur slight rebounds if wealthier players stockpile recently-dropped high-value items. - **Medium-Term (Q1 2025):** A potential **price renormalization (~5-6M GP)** may occur if the RuneScape combat system update (March 2024) revisits Scripture synergy interactions in PvM. This depends on changes to Necromancy efficiency relative to other methods, but demand growth could briefly raise Scripture costs by ~25-35%. **Price Catalysts for Dips/Spikes in Value:** - **Direct Buff/Nerf Updates:** If Jagex introduces quality-of-life adjustments to Amascut’s drop rate or Scripture mechanics, we may see spikes due to combat utility. - **Treasure Hunter Promotions:** Jagex's loot incentives or microtransaction GP surges (like 1B GP on Treasure Hunter in April 2024) influence wealthy players and flipping margins. - **Currency Exploits:** Exploits such as dupes (e.g., Max Cash Update in May 2024) devalue GP, driving temporary spikes in rare gear as inflation hedges but soften resale profits. --- ### **3. Flipping Margins** #### **Current Margins (November 2024):** - Buying low on inactive trading hours (~3.5M GP) and selling during busy evening playtimes (~4.0M) generates **500K per trade in steady times.** - Per-week profit rates could yield up to **5-8M through volume-based flipping alone.** - Margins thin if prices climb post-Q1 2025, but higher volatility could push skilled traders to profit margins of 1-1.5M per flip amidst rebounds. #### **Flipping Tips:** - Track prices post-major updates or weekend PvM spikes, as high demand surges post-releases can cause unpredictable price distortions for hours. - Target **Wednesday-Friday** buy cycles where PvMers prep for weekly boss-kill streaks, driving demand predictably before **Sunday falls** in prices via consistent oversupply. --- ### **4. Related Items to Diversify Price Speculation** #### **Best-Holistic Items:** 1. **Scripture of Wen:** Another pocket slot Scripture tied to Croesus. As a stable alternative to Amascut, it benefits from ecosystem-wide bossing/economic volatility trends. 2. **Cinderbanes/Grimy LotD:** Relatively cheaper offhand functional gear appropriate when Necromancer dies create wider Night constitute ladder type katk=item few...