### Ode to Deceit: Overview, Rarity, and Summary **Summary**: The **Ode to Deceit** is a highly sought-after cosmetic recovered from the Sanctum of Rebirth (released on **July 22, 2024**). It’s a shadowy animated weapon override, themed around misdirection and power. The cosmetics from this update were tied to difficult drop mechanics and low global odds, making the item particularly valuable to collectors. With its visual flair, it synergizes with builds focused on Necromancy or darker aesthetics. **Release Date**: Introduced on **July 22, 2024**, alongside the Sanctum of Rebirth, Ode to Deceit is a limited availability reward. **Rarity**: While not locked behind specific time gates like seasonal holiday items, the Ode’s rarity stems from its extremely low drop rate and the nature of its release—a boss-related activity. Its rarity increased after launch as fewer were added to the game following widespread excitement in the first month. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Evaluation #### **Notable Price Points**: - **Initial Spike (July 22–24, 2024)**: Upon release, Ode to Deceit reached staggering heights, peaking at **1.2B GP**. This was fueled by exclusive hype, with collectors and early adopters eager to secure the flashy new cosmetic. - **Subsequent Drop (July 25–August 6, 2024)**: Prices stabilized between **300M–600M GP**, as supply from early drops entered circulation and demand slightly waned. - **Secondary Recovery (August 7–August 28, 2024)**: The Mining and Smithing update boosted some wealthier mid-tier players, pushing demand for rare luxury items such as the Ode closer to **180M–300M GP**. - **Gradual Decline (September–November 2024)**: After the hype subsided and more items entered circulation, prices descended to a low of around **70M GP** by November. - **December Recovery:** The upcoming **holiday season** and its typical market excitement have historically driven collector demand for high-profile items. Ode surged back to **159M GP** by December 2024. #### **Key Influences**: 1. **Supply Scarcity**: After the Ode’s initial drop period, fewer players engaged with the Sanctum of Rebirth’s release content, lowering its circulation. 2. **Holiday Effects**: Late-year holiday seasons generally spark interest in collectibles and cosmetics as players splurge with stored wealth. 3. **Gamebreaking Updates**: Events such as the **Mining/Smithing rework and Max Cash exploits** drove temporary price inflation due to expanded wealth in the economy. 4. **Cosmetic Demand Cycles**: The Ode’s usability among Necromancers caused brief recovery spikes post-August 7 when new cosmetics were sought to match builds. --- ### Price Prediction (Q1 2025) Examining historical cosmetic trends and the Ode's release curve, I predict the following: - **January – February 2025**: Prices stabilize between **160M–180M GP** due to the post-holiday cool-off. The high price end of this range reflects players who missed the December rush returning to trade. - **March 2025**: Prices may dip slightly (down to **120M–140M GP**) as trading volume quiets following the combat update fallout, a likely shift in market focus, and diminishing hype around Necromancy-themed items. **Key Risk**: If similar limited-edition cosmetics (e.g., Treasure Hunter rarity) rival its uniqueness or Jagex introduces an achievable replay loop in Sanctum, prices could temporarily deflate to stabilize near **90M-120M GP.** --- ### Flipping Margins Ode to Deceit has shown the potential for lucrative flips due to its wide variance-driven market behavior. Based on the volatile swings of **50M–70M GP within weeks**, you could reliably aim for **10M–20M profit margins** per flip if actively monitoring GE trends or Discord trading hubs. #### **Best Flipping Practices**: 1. **Buy after updates** that funnel supply (e.g., new boss mechanics) and wait to sell following holiday markets where collector interest resurges. 2. **Nighttime flips** often show lower buy prices when fewer players are involved in active trading. --- ### Comparable Items and Strategies #### **Items to Buy Alongside Ode to Deceit**: 1. **Hallowfire Pitch (similar Sanctum reward)**: Lower buy-ins (<20M GP as of late 2024) but strong demand among general Necromancy builds. 2. **Dark Onyx Core (Treasure Hunter exclusive)**: High luxury-grade item that shares cosmetic appeal and wealth-influenced pricing. 3. **Blood Dye**: Consistent high-tier flipping choice due to its scarce cosmetics usage, pairs well during themed setups like the Ode. #### **Strategic Seasons**: - **Positive Markets**: - **December (holidays)**: Demand for gifts and cosmetics surges, alongside new player influxes post-updates. - **Early August–Late September**: Update hype (Necromancy, Mining) typically stabilizes niche luxury items. - **Negative Markets**: - **April–June**: Post-tax-season economic strain causes broader market GP deflation. Items typically experience less interest. - **Post-major-dupes/crashes**: If GP output issues occur (e.g., Treasure Hunter inflation like April 2024), Ode and similar items temporarily devalue while the wealth pool absorbs excess GP. --- ### Conclusion Ode to Deceit embodies rarity leveraged against intentional scarcity by Jagex for mid-to-long-term price growth. Recent spikes emphasize the classic volatility of cosmetics due to short-lived hype, but the holiday and rarity-driven upward trends support sustained profitability. If flipped carefully with comparable items like Blood Dye, this Ode can be a consistent profit engine in any cosmetic-focused portfolio.