### **Item Overview: Rainbow Dragonbreath Ability Scroll** The **Rainbow Dragonbreath ability scroll** is a rare cosmetic override that modifies the visual effect of the Dragon Breath ability, adding a multi-colored, dazzling "rainbow" animation when the ability is used. This item is non-tradable upon activation but can be sold on the Grand Exchange until consumed. It first debuted via **Treasure Hunter promotions** in February 2023 as part of a rainbow-themed prize pool. Initially overlooked, it gained prestige due to its vibrant aesthetic and limited availability, particularly after its Treasure Hunter cycle concluded. #### **Release Date & Rarity** - **Release Date:** February 2023 (Treasure Hunter promotion). - **Rarity:** Classified as Ultra-Rare. - Because the scroll was not tradable immediately after events, its early supply was constrained, leading to speculative hoarding with the fear of no future re-releases. #### **Factors Governing Rarity:** 1. **Scarcity of Promotion:** Rainbow-themed Treasure Hunter events are infrequent. 2. **Demand:** The cosmetic appeals to both PVM enthusiasts and collectors. 3. **Uncertainty of Re-release:** Jagex’s re-release patterns for cosmetics keeps markets volatile. ### **Historical Price Trends & Key Analysis** The price data highlights the following trends: 1. **Volatility after release:** - Prices surged past **700-800M** in March 2024, primarily tied to combat updates (March 4, 2024) that increased player activity. These updates led to greater desirability for cosmetic items among wealthy, active accounts. - Prices reached as high as **961M GP on March 21, 2024**, possibly tied to speculation of re-purchasing after the **Easter Pet dupe (April 2024)** caused significant gold injection into the economy, pushing up the value of high-demand, ultra-rare tradables. 2. **Mid-2024 dips from rapid changes in updates and exploits:** - Significant drops occurred to **450M GP in April/May 2024**, correlating to: - **Max Cash Update exploit (May 2024):** Inflation increased gold entering the market, but mid-tier investors began liquidating scrolls due to speculation that Jagex might attempt economic correction via combatting gold surplus. - **April dupe abuse (Easter pets):** While gold entered circulation, market dips followed when dupes were addressed. Liquidation of rare collectibles likely contributed to panic pricing. 3. **Late 2024 stabilization and slow recovery:** - From **June-August** 2024, Rainbow Dragonbreath hovered near values of **500M-600M**, stabilizing with growing speculative interest post-**Sanctum of Rebirth** and **Mining & Smithing Rework.** - **October 2024:** A slow climb to **665M GP** indicates investor speculation ahead of Jagex’s anticipated cosmetic reworks, with fears of unannounced re-releases diminishing. #### **Price Prediction for Next Few Months (Q4 2024 & Q1 2025)** - **Baseline Recovery:** Barring re-releases or unexpected TH promotions, the item should stabilize around **650M-700M GP**. - **Spike Scenario:** Speculative buys could push this to **800M GP** or higher if no re-releases occur by Q1 2025. - **Drop Scenario:** If a rainbow-themed Treasure Hunter event recurs (~February 2025), prices could plummet to **400-450M GP** due to increased supply. **Key Influencers for Rainbow Dragonbreath’s Prices:** 1. **Gold Inflation Events:** The economy’s surplus gold directly affects ultra-rare items, typically driving up their cost. 2. **Jagex Updates Impacting Collectibles:** Events like **combat updates** and **Jagex-administered inflation (e.g., Treasure Hunter boosts)** are prime catalysts. 3. **Treasure Hunter Reworks/New Seasons:** As Jagex cycles seasonal themes, many speculative traders react pessimistically upon announcements of new Treasure Hunter seasons, fearing reintroductions. --- ### **Flipping Margins Analysis** Typical flipping margins vary greatly depending on market volatility: - **Tight Margin Phase (600M-700M):** During current stability (~665M), flipping margins average **1-3%** (6-15M). - **Volatile Phase (400M-800M):** Immediate post-crash or post-update, prices often fluctuate by **10-15% daily**, creating buy-sell spreads of **50M-80M GP**. - **Example Strategy:** Purchase during dips (~450M, e.g., April-May) and sell during speculative hype (e.g., 680M-700M). --- ### **Complementary Investments** #### **Similar Items to Diversify Holdings:** 1. **Item: Sakura Dragonbreath Scroll** - Historically, alternate Dragon Breath scrolls behave similarly in terms of slow value appreciation due to limited re-releases. - Margin opportunities exist within corrections to 450-550M ranges. 2. **Ice Dye** *(Ultra-expensive dye demand correlated to high GP surplus scenarios)*: - Tracks alongside rare cosmetics like Rainbow scroll, appreciating alongside economic expansion. 3. **Rainbow-colored Tokens/Rares** *(Rainbow Cape, Rainbow Beam cosmetics)*: - Jagex has history of introducing rainbow cosmetics in TH promotions; speculators often hoard these during droughts to capitalize on rising scarcity. #### **Seasonal Buying/Selling Advice:** 1. **Best Seasons for Buying:** - Post-major exploits/duplication patches (e.g., April): Rare collectible floods briefly depress prices during dupes or exploits. - Post-Treasure Hunter releases: After consumable events, sellers often panic and liquidate valuables far below market estimates. 2. **Best Seasons for Selling:** - Holiday Event Anticipation: Near pre-Christmas updates (November-December) cosmetics spike in value due to player gifting culture and high GP liquidity. - Spring Speculation (~March-April): Traditionally, few Treasure Hunter rainbow re-releases appear during Q1/Q2 updates, making this optimal selling time. --- ### **Conclusion** The **Rainbow Dragonbreath ability scroll** is a highly volatile, collectible asset perfect for speculative flipping or long-term investment. Its rarity sustains a high price floor, but its susceptibility to Jagex’s Treasure Hunter cycles and gold inflation events make it unpredictable. Traders should monitor Jagex update schedules and economic shifts while diversifying investments with complementary ultra-rares like dyes or limited-edition cosmetics. Expect prices to creep toward **750M-800M GP by Q1 2025**, upgrading strategies dynamically around market shocks.