### Summary of the Item: The **Fungal Swiftness cosmetic ability scroll** is a rare item in RuneScape 3. It unlocks a unique cosmetic animation for the “Surge” ability, mimicking fungal trails during its use. Released during Treasure Hunter promotions in early 2024, this ability scroll is part of RuneScape's cosmetic enhancement trend that attracts collectors. Its scarcity stems from limited availability through RNG-based microtransactions, which drive up its desirability within the trading community. As of late 2024, the scroll exhibits steep price volatility due to collector-driven demand, market speculation, and GP supply fluctuations. Notably, its price spiked to over **1.5B GP (October 2024)** and dipped as low as **500M GP (April 2024)**. Historically, cosmetic scroll items like this appreciate significantly over time when no re-releases occur, but their value is vulnerable to sudden Treasure Hunter events or GP influxes. --- ### Rarity Analysis: The rarity of Fungal Swiftness correlates with both its cosmetic niche and the nature of its availability. Unlike functional items or gear, cosmetics primarily rely on subjective appeal—making them disproportionately valuable to collectors. The scroll’s high price and fast resale activity imply that it may have emerged in limited Treasure Hunter events. Its rarity is further reinforced by the absence of alternative earnable or craftable methods for obtaining it, locking it behind the promotional ecosystem. Additionally, its persistently changing price indicates speculative trading activity, where rare items are hoarded in anticipation of future appreciation, further limiting supply. --- ### Price Analysis and Predictions: #### Price History Events: 1. **March–April 2024 Volatility**: - The release of the **Combat Update (March 2024)** spiked temporary interest in all Surge-related abilities due to mechanical changes. - By April 2024, however, the **Easter Egg Pets Duplication Bug** (April 2024) flooded the economy with GP, suppressing prices for collectibles as flippers sold to recoup liquidity. 2. **October 2024 Spike**: - This sharp rise to 1.5B may result from market speculators hoarding cosmetic scrolls post Treasure Hunter expiration. Furthermore, rarity perception likely increased due to **weakened trust in Treasure Hunter updates** after the June 2024 GP injections. #### Price Forecast (Next Few Months): - **Near-Term Outlook (Nov 2024–Feb 2025)**: Likely to average **1.6–1.8B GP** due to the market stabilizing post-GIM Bank Bug (Nov 2024). The item’s price will remain high because of reduced liquidity following October’s speculative buying. - **Mid-Term Outlook (March–May 2025)**: A notable risk exists for re-releases in spring Treasure Hunter events (a pattern observed historically), which could cause the scroll to drop to around **800M-1.1B GP**. Jagex often refreshes cosmetic items during the late-winter/early-spring promotional season. - **Long-Term Outlook (Post-May 2025)**: If no re-releases occur, prices could soar to **2B+ GP** by late 2025, particularly fueled by the steady appreciation of non-functional cosmetics after supply stabilizes. --- ### Flipping Margins: Fungal Swiftness is an active trader’s dream due to its high, rapid trading volume during peaks and dips: - On calm market days, margins of **50M-100M GP** are common, offering a solid 5-10% ROI per flip. - During event-laden periods (e.g., Treasure Hunter refreshes, major updates), margins increase to **150M-200M GP** with a 15-20% ROI in as little as 24-48 hours post-market disruptions. - Expert flipping typically requires analyzing short-term hype during Treasure Hunter promotions but ensures buying well below peak hype. **Pro Tip**: Buy during seasonal dips after known GP influxes (e.g., post-GIM dupe effects or Treasure Hunter GP rewards increases). --- ### Complementary Items to Invest In: If speculating on Fungal Swiftness, consider balancing your portfolio with similar cosmetics that historically exhibit parallel demand behavior: 1. **Necroparagon's Surge (Necromancy-themed ability animation)**—acquired during key Necromancy events, this has crossover appeal with cosmetic enthusiasts post-Combat Update. 2. **Blightbound Crossbow Override**—has more niche value but spikes periodically post major DPS-oriented updates. 3. **Dark Onyx Core or Lava Lanterns (Treasures)**—prices appreciate during microtransaction expansions due to broader market shifts. --- ### Seasonal Influences on Price: 1. **Positive Price Periods**: - **July–October**: Limited promotion seasons drive scarcity for past Treasure Hunter-exclusive items. Additionally, summer player activity increases flipping opportunities. - **Post-Gold Drain Patches**: These reduce GP supply (e.g., coinsinks like Necromancy ritual costs), driving up demand for inherently scarce items like Fungal Swiftness. 2. **Negative Price Periods:** - **March–June (Spring Promotions)**: History shows frequent Treasure Hunter re-releases during this window (e.g., spring festivals), potentially halving prices for previously exclusive items. - **Post-GP Injection Events** (e.g., November 2024 GIM Bank Bug): Sudden GP influxes hurt collectible markets as sellers liquidate assets to hedge inflation. --- Fungal Swiftness is a high-risk, high-reward investment, but playing the broader cosmetics market with seasonal knowledge and diversification protects against downside risks. Act decisively, particularly during Treasure Hunter disruptions or liquidity crises, for maximum profit potential.