### Summary of the Snowman Pet Token The Snowman Pet Token is a cosmetic item in RuneScape 3 introduced during a winter holiday event, allowing players to unlock the Snowman pet. This festive item is associated with nostalgia and limited releases, giving it collectability. First introduced in late 2017 as part of Treasure Hunter promotions, the token is non-renewable outside specific events or re-releases, which provides its scarcity-driven allure. Its trading trajectory reflects RuneScape’s classic market volatility, tied to general GP influxes, dupes, and Treasure Hunter rotations. As such, its value has wavered between extreme highs and surprising dips, making it a key speculative item. Currently, its rarity on the Grand Exchange stems from inconsistent availability, with a lower supply compared to similar holiday tokens. --- ### Release Date and Historical Rarity - **First Release**: December 2017 during a Treasure Hunter event. - **Rarity Tier**: Considered “uncommon” in Treasure Hunter but hard to obtain outside of seasonal winter events or re-releases. - **Current Supply**: Extremely low due to minimal reintroductions in recent years. --- ### Historical Events and Market Impacts #### Key Moments: 1. **2021 Rollback Dupe (January/July 2021)**: Introduced vast amounts of GP, inflating token prices dramatically. Prices spiked in 2021, peaking at **47M GP**, as GP sank into collectible items. However, the injection of duped items eventually led to dips as surplus supply was offloaded into the market. 2. **Croesus Boss Release (September 2021)**: The boss drew attention away from collectibles, likely contributing to reduced Snowman Pet Token prices. 3. **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)**: Interest in new accounts incentivized lower-market-value items, diverting demand from higher-tier rares. 4. **2023 Scrimshaw Dupe & Hacks (January–August 2023)**: Both introduced massive instability. While GP floods should typically inflate prices, reduced confidence in the market curtailed investments in non-essential collectibles. 5. **2024 Treasure Hunter GP Buff (April 2024)**: Announcements of higher GP drops from Treasure Hunter encourage potential speculative rebounds for discontinued Treasure Hunter tokens like this. --- ### Price Prediction (Mid-2024 to Early-2025) Given the historical trend and upcoming updates, the Snowman Pet Token is expected to follow these pathways: 1. **Supply Factors**: If Jagex revisits winter-themed re-releases in Treasure Hunter (typical for holiday seasons), expect a supply surge around **December 2024**, likely bringing prices down by **25–40%**. 2. **Demand Post-Releases**: As winter ends, token prices will rise with lower availability, usually post-January/February. By mid-2025, past trends suggest speculative highs near **60,000–90,000 GP** if no significant GP influx occurs. 3. **Economic Updates Influence**: Market inflation from gold dupes or GP-generating events (e.g., April 2024 Treasure Hunter GP boost) may drive collectible demand, with hypothetical peaks reaching **100,000–120,000 GP** by late 2024. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins The Snowman Pet Token exhibits wide margins due to its thinly traded nature. On average: - **Low Activity Periods**: Margins typically range between **10–20%**, ideal for holding tokens purchased during market lulls. - **High Volatility Events**: Spikes or re-releases can bump day-to-day flipping margins as high as **30–50%**, particularly during influxes associated with Treasure Hunter or winter event speculation. Flipping is most effective immediately **post-releases**, as players seeking the cosmetic drive brief demand spikes before prices stabilize again. --- ### Similar Items to Invest In 1. **Ice Skull Mask Token** (from the same seasonal rarity class): This token is highly cyclical, often peaking alongside the Snowman Pet Token during winter-related events. 2. **Festive Aura Tokens / Christmas-themed Tokens**: Other holiday-specific Treasure Hunter items, such as Christmas Scythe Tokens or Holiday Tree Tokens, follow similar trends. 3. **Golden Party Hat Shards**: While less tied to seasonal trends, this item is another speculative collectible that typically trends toward scarcity-driven price increases. 4. **Zombie Walk Override Token**: Hype-fueled emote-related items, akin to holiday rewards in tradeability. --- ### Seasonal Timing Impact 1. **Positive Price Trends**: - **Post-Holiday Lull (January–February)**: Collectibles rebound as active promotions wane. - **Late Summer/Autumn**: Busier player-base periods with GP influx tend to drive demand higher for speculative flips. 2. **Negative Price Trends**: - **Holiday Re-Releases (November–December)**: High temporary availability in Treasure Hunter dynamically weakens prices. - **Major Treasure Hunter GP Boosts**: Greater GP focuses player spending power elsewhere, putting pressure on mid-tier collectibles. Overall, a long-term holding strategy through high-GP influx periods and holiday re-releases is optimal, with windowed sell-offs in following months where supply diminishes.