The **Wand of the Cywir Elders** is a high-level magic weapon in RuneScape 3 originating from the **Araxxor** boss drop table, introduced during the boss's debut on **August 4, 2014**. It requires **level 90 Magic** to wield and remains a staple for advanced PvM until players obtain higher-tier weapons like the **Fractured Staff of Armadyl**. As part of the Araxyte weapon set, it’s complemented by the **Orb of the Cywir Elders**, offering a potent off-hand option for dual-wield Magic setups. Its rarity lies in it being a **unique Araxxor drop**, whose availability depends on the encounter's loot mechanics, which can include RNG and boss rotation influencing drop rates. --- ### **Historical Price Trends & Analysis** From your provided data: 1. **January 2023 to November 2023**: The Wand of the Cywir exhibited a **significant price drop**, declining from **38.4M (January)** to **15.2M - 15.7M (November)**. This aligns with several key factors: - **Scrimshaw Dupe (January 2023)**: Flooded the market with trillions of GP, inflating prices. - **Necromancy Update (August 2023)**: Max combat level increase shifted meta preferences temporarily toward Necromancy, diminishing Magic reliance and demand for dual-wield setups. - **Hero Pass Backlash (September 2023)**: Decreased active player engagement may have softened demand across all mid-tier combat gear. 2. **November 2023 to April 2024**: A resurgence saw its price rise back to **17M (November 2023)** before dipping again to **12M (April 2024)**: - The **Black Partyhat (December 2023)** and **combat update (March 2024)** likely destabilized player spending habits, funneling GP into collectible and speculative assets or new combat systems instead of legacy equipment like the Cywir wand. - **Treasure Hunter GP additions (April 2024)** introduced another inflation wave, which paradoxically reduces the real value of most items for mid-level PvMers who were already well-stocked with existing weapons. 3. **Current Insights**: Price erosion towards **12M** indicates that the Wand of the Cywir has entered the stage of heavy saturation in the economy, particularly as more accessible alternatives like **T90 Necromancy weapons** emerge into relevance. Additionally, PvM-oriented bosses like **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** may pressure the weapon’s price further by introducing higher-tier gear. --- ### **Price Prediction (Mid to Late 2024)** 1. **Short-Term (June-August 2024)**: - **Stable Demand**: The wand is unlikely to rise significantly beyond the **12-14M range**, as newer players still require budget dual-wield setups but most veterans already transitioned to **Fractured Staff** or Necromancy builds. - Expect fluctuations in the **10M-12M band** due to potential gold influx from the **Max Cash Exploit** and the **Bond price adjustment (~8.99 USD)** driving more GP sales. 2. **Long-Term (~2025)**: - With more **T95+ gear releases**, legacy items like the Cywir Wand may dip to **8M or lower**, barring any unforeseen updates that boost demand for Magic’s dual-wield paradigm (e.g., meta shifts or Araxxor boss improvements). --- ### **Flipping Margins** From historical data and typical economic activity on high-supply Tier 90 items: - **Spread Opportunity**: The Wand of the Cywir is a mid-tier item capable of offering **1M-1.5M margins** on average when flipping, especially in periods of moderate volatility. - Effective flipping occurs during **Treasure Hunter promotions** or **weekend free trade boosts**, as supply surges due to PvM weekend engagement and promotional farming. - Example flipping strategy: Buy in bulk during GP influx periods (e.g., post-Easter dupes or Treasure Hunter GP drops) when prices are at their lowest (~11M-12M), then hold and offload to PvMers during event cool-down weeks (~13M on average). --- ### **Advice on Related Investments** 1. **Araxxor Weaponry (Orb of the Cywir)**: - Directly complements the wand, offering similar flipping margins. However, being an **off-hand**, the **Orb** caters to a smaller PvM demographic, posing a higher risk of being illiquid. 2. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl Components**: - If investing in the **Wand of the Cywir**, consider speculative capital in the FSOA market (e.g., its base components like Dark Onyx Cores). Surge-prone updates to PvM content often lift demand for high-end Magic weaponry. 3. **Necromancy Gear Market**: - Post Necromancy skill release (August 2023), lower-tier **Necromantic equipment** (e.g., T90 Necromantic Wand/Off-Hand) competes with Cywir Wand pricing. Long-term profits may be better by investing in Necromancy equipment, as Jagex seems inclined to expand this combat style. --- ### **Seasonality and Market Insight** - **Positive Seasons for Cywir Pricing**: - **Post-Boss Releases**: New bosses like **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** often lure mid-tier PvMers to upgrade their inventory for combat training purposes. - **F2P Gold Farm Surges**: Winter (Q4) and Spring (Q2) often correspond to **renewed F2P accounts**, creating demand for PvM starter gear. - **Negative Seasons**: - **Treasure Hunter Cash Drops**: Significant GP influx periods (e.g., April 2024's 1B GP injection) can oversaturate item supply like the Wand of the Cywir while eroding real GP value, forcing developers to introduce GP sinks. To mitigate potential losses, stagger your investments with items from newer tiers (e.g., fresh Necromancy equipment) or speculative PvM tools whose rarity is less tied to a saturated boss like Araxxor.