### **Analysis of Vestments of Havoc Robe Top** #### **Summary and Rarity** The Vestments of Havoc Robe Top is part of the coveted Necromancy-oriented Vestments of Havoc cosmetic outfit. Released alongside the Necromancy skill update (August 7, 2023), the robe top quickly became a sought-after item, augmenting both visual appeal and prestige for Necromancy training and combat builds. Its rarity stems from its availability exclusively through Necromancy drops and Treasure Hunter promotions. The item’s price trajectory has been volatile, reflecting both speculative demand and influx spikes tied to game updates. #### **Price Prediction** Using the provided price data and factoring historical trends, we can make key inferences: 1. **Initial Spike (July–August 2023):** Upon Necromancy’s release, higher combat caps upped demand for high-end Necromancy-themed items. This drove the Vestments of Havoc Robe Top to a post-release high, reaching **~240M on November 10, 2023** (nine days before Red Portal activity caused disruptions in the high-tier market). 2. **Long Term Decline (Late 2023–Mid 2024):** By March 2024, Necromancy's popularity normalized, compounded by massive GP exploits such as *the Max Cash dupe* (May 2024). As low-value GP inflated the general economy, discrete high-value assets suffered slight growth suppression or devaluation. 3. **August 2024 Recovery Plateau:** The release of the **Sanctum of Rebirth** and **Mining and Smithing rework** generated renewed interest in Necromancy and its associated cosmetics, temporarily reviving the price to **~176.9M by July 2024**. However, dupe bugs and cash redistribution schemes again began deflating stagnant high-tier sales by Q4 2024. ##### **Forecast through Early 2025:** Given predictable post-dupe economic recovery, GP redistribution toward higher-end gear, and rising player activity: - **Short-term (3 months):** Expect a dip to **135M–150M (10%–15%)** as Necromancy stabilizes further and other content updates divert attention from legacy items. - **Mid-term (6 months):** Following economic stabilization and limited item re-releases, the item should settle between **160M–190M**, aligning with endgame player gear preferences and flare demand. #### **Why the Price Fluctuates** Distinct market interventions created spikes or dips: - **Seasonal Gold Surges (October–December):** Red Portal lures (11/2023) and Black Partyhat releases introduced seasonal GP hoarding and liquidation. Major items like the Vestments spiked as a store of wealth but tapered once new content emerged. - **Dupes/Exploits (May 2024 Max Cash Incident, Easter Rewards):** Circulation of trillions of duped GP artificially suppressed treasure-hunters' directional market. - **Update Sensitivity (Necromancy & SoR):** Belonging to a niche upgrade group correlates directly to skill update engagement. No new Necromancy content = long-term nominal decay. --- #### **Flipping Margins** The Vestments of Havoc Robe Top, priced between **150M–200M**, exhibits healthy flipping dynamics owing to relatively high volume and medium-term speculation. Observations: - **Spread Range:** - Weekdays: Margins stabilize between **3M–5M per flip**. - Weekends (high trading activity): Margins can spike to **7M–10M per flip**, especially after updates. - **Strategy:** Prioritize flipping during *skilling week promotions* or Treasure Hunter-centric events, as GP circulation increases significantly. Avoid overstocking during major *duping seasons*. --- #### **Other Similar Items to Invest In** Diversifying within the Necromancy and rare cosmetics niche minimizes risk while capturing related price surges. Suggested items: 1. **Vestments of Havoc Components** - **Gloves/Boots:** Paired Vestments components follow similar long-term trajectories, albeit at lower nominal rates (**+/-75M current averages**). Unlike the robe top, these see spikes post-cosmetic overrides. 2. **Deathwarden Outfit (Elite Skilling Cosmetica):** - Released as content-specific unlockables, Necromancy-adjacent items targeting skilling builds naturally parallel broader price impacts. 3. **Ghost-themed Cosmetics (e.g., Ghostly robes overrides):** - Cheap entry-level speculative flips (~5M)—limited discontinuation overrides/consistent pipeline use. --- #### **Impact of Market Seasons** Timing seasonal patterns is critical for maximum profitability: 1. **Positive Trends for Price Growth:** - **December-February:** Christmas surge and early-year demand often revive luxury-item purchases. Typically paired with player-driven inflation. - **July-August:** Expansion skill rollouts like Necromancy or combat caps likewise spike correlated gear. 2. **Negative Trends for Price Growth:** - **May–June:** Post-April revenue dupes or Treasure Hunter exploits often overwhelm GP influx, distorting long-valued items. Duping always disadvantages fragile speculation items like minor rares. **Key Advice:** During stable economic phases, target *cosmetic rerelease rumors* and *skill-specific relevance*. Fractured speculator engagement (Necromancy vs. Mining focus) will otherwise reduce gains when content-specific axis shifts invariably happen.