### **Summary of Third Age Range Legs** The Third Age Range Legs is a high-tier "Third Age" treasure trail item in RuneScape 3, originating from the *Elite* and *Master* Treasure Trail reward pool. Noted for their rarity, they are a cosmetic item favored by high-tier merchants and collectors. As part of the Third Age armour set specific to rangers, these legs are characterized by their unique design and prestige. They offer no significant advantages in combat compared to other BiS gear but are considered status symbols in the game. The item was originally released with Treasure Trails (2007 update) and remains among the most difficult items to obtain due to staggeringly low drop rates that fluctuate based on *clue scroll tier*. A Master Treasure Trail has a roughly **1 in 1,013,961** chance to yield any Third Age item. Coupled with RNG bottlenecks and its place as a cosmetic luxury, this item consistently fetches a premium in the player economy. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis and Context** Between 2022 and 2024, Third Age Range Legs have displayed significant price volatility, driven mostly by overarching economic trends and key updates. Notable price points from your data: - **2023 Price Recovery & Volatility**: Prices surged from **92M (Feb 2023)** to **158M (March 2024)** after brief stability following major hacks, dupes, and new content that funneled GP back into collectible market segments. - A sharp dip (**Aug 2023, 109M**) coincided with the introduction of *Necromancy skill*—a combat meta-shifting event. High demand for skill progression items caused a short-term liquidity crisis for collectibles. - The **bump through late 2023** (Sept -> March 2024, 140M -> 158M) occurred as economic drawbacks from *Hero Pass backlash* and *Black Partyhat* release artificially restricted collectible GP liquidity. Wealthier collectors re-entered the market. - **2022 High Prices and Luxury Demand Ceiling**: Stability at **200M** reflects reduced access from treasure clues, with the *Duel Arena Removal* supporting long-term GP value retention early that year. Inflationary spirals starting in late 2021 (rollback dupe/added liquidity) and economic uncertainty maintained stagnation at higher prices. **Event Correlations** 1. **Dupes and Hacks**: Duplication and economy-injecting events (e.g., Scrimshaw dupe, Red Portal hacks) increased GP pools but caused erratic price fluctuations depending on the target of duping activity. Collectibles like Third Age gear saw inflations initially before mid-term crashes from GP market oversaturation. 2. **Combat Meta Adjustments**: Necromancy’s release (Aug 2023) significantly hurt demand for luxury-range gear, as major player capital shifted. Range-specific combat gear (esp. non-meta) was deprioritized. Expectational sell-off started weeks in advance. 3. **Treasure Hunter Inflation (March 2024)**: Adding **1B GP to Treasure Hunter rewards** raised liquid GP availability and increased prices of rare collectibles (short-term). --- ### **Future Price Prediction** Historical trends suggest collectibles like Third Age Range Legs will benefit from long-term inflation patterns, but they remain uniquely sensitive to economic manipulation via dupes and treasure trail changes. 1. **Short-Term (2-3 Months)**: Prices could trend **downwards to 140M-150M** if GP demand narrows due to the release of the *Mining and Smithing rework in Aug 2024.* This major content rework is expected to focus player spending on resources and gear upgrades, starving speculative items. 2. **Mid-Term (6-12 Months)**: A **price recovery to 180M-200M** is highly likely, especially as GP inflation from Treasure Hunter and other re-released Third Age roll-ins decrease availability. If Third Age redistributions occur in future Treasure Trails alongside clues meta-rework (possible intra-2025 update), this price ceiling might get tested lower. **Dangers:** Beware of: - Future Treasure Trail rewards being reweighted. - Sept-Nov seasonal slowdowns wherein *GIM bugs or Merch Seasonal GP shortages historically drive dips.* --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** - **General Margin**: The average flipping margin for Third Age Range Legs fluctuates between **7M-12M GP** on most vendor-to-GE trades. - **Time-Limited Margins**: In recovery periods (e.g., post-major drops), flipping windows expand significantly. A patient seller can pull margins of **15M-25M** early in price pumps like those seen in March 2024. **Strategies to Maximize Margins:** - Use **bulk clue scrolls farming events** like *Treasure Trails Spotlight Weeks* to time-purchase dips when more Third Age hits circulation. - Flip during **Necromancy tool/Mining rework GP focus periods** where collectibles see liquidity-starvation discounts. --- ### **Similar Items to Consider Buying** For diversity in high-margin flipping or long-term arbitrage investments: 1. **Third Age Range Coif**: Similarly priced and offers direct synergy with Third Age Range Legs, often responding identically to economic swings. Coifs feature even lower supply due to lack of demand or accumulating focus. 2. **Third Age Mage Amulet**: As an attractive, niche luxury item without combat impact, it thrives after inflationary booms. Slightly higher drop rarity improves its speculative upside. 3. **Capes of Accomplishment (Max/Completionist Capes)**: Rare, end-game items that sit adjacent to collectible wearables unaffected by meta cycles. --- ### **Seasonal Price Fluctuations** 1. **Positive Seasons for Price**: - **Post-Dupe and Post-Hack Recovery**: Historically (01/2021, 08/2023, etc.), rare items trend higher after initial price stability following gold flooding and GP-system corrections. - **December-January Events** (e.g., *Holiday rares like Black Partyhat releases*): GP concentration around rares leaves collectibles less liquid, allowing speculative flips or longer holds to yield profit. 2. **Negative Seasons for Price**: - **Pre-Major Updates (Skill additions, Combat highlights)**: Items lose speculative attention before content patch releases (e.g., *Necromancy’s dip period in Summer 2023*). - **Pre-Summer GP Crashes**: Casual seasonal shifts typically increase liquid GP demand, inadvertently softening luxury-collectible trends. --- **Conclusion**: The Third Age Range Legs maintain excellent long-term growth potential as a high-tier collectible, but timing your position is critical. Short-term dips from upcoming *Mining/Smithing reworks* or if Treasure Trails meta sees redistribution could provide buy-in opportunities for flipping or speculative long-term investments. Investing in complementary items like capes or amulets will diversify risks while leveraging demand for similar niches.