### Overview of the Rainbow Scythe The **Rainbow Scythe** is a highly coveted cosmetic item in RuneScape, originally released in *early January 2021* through the Treasure Hunter promotion "Rainbow's End." This fashionable scythe features a dazzling rainbow hue and is purely for aesthetic purposes, catering to collectors and adventurers who value visual flexes. Upon its release, its novelty and exclusivity shot its price into the hundreds of millions of GP. However, over time, its value has fluctuated drastically due to factors such as market saturation, game updates, and macroeconomic shifts within RuneScape. This item is classified as a "discontinued Treasure Hunter promo reward," meaning it will not be directly obtainable via Treasure Hunter in the future, contributing to its steady rise in desirability and value. Today, it sits among the ranks of mid-tier cosmetics, with demand driven by both collectors and speculators. ### Rarity and Historical Price Trends Upon its release, the Rainbow Scythe's scarcity gave it extremely high market value, peaking at **800M GP in January 2021** during the hype window. Its price then collapsed dramatically throughout the first half of 2021, coinciding with significant in-game gold injection events (notably, the rollback dupe in May 2021 and the recovery dupe in July 2021). These events undermined the value of GP and destabilized the broader market. The scythe hit rock-bottom prices of *1.65M GP* in December 2021 due to oversupply and dampened demand. Later price recoveries can be attributed to cosmetic desirability and reduced availability on the Grand Exchange. By mid-2023, it slowly regained ground, particularly following the controversial Hero Pass update backlash (September 2023), as disillusioned players sought luxury items over gameplay engagement. Most recently, its value rallied significantly, with a noticeable spike to **27M GP as of June 2024**, driven by post-Necromancy updates and renewed game activity. ### Current Economic Context and Recent Price Activity The **June 2024 price of 27.8M GP** represents a recent surge, far above its low in late 2022 (approximately 2-2.5M GP). This can be partially explained by: 1. **Max Cash Update Exploits (May 2024)** – The influx of trillions of GP due to the exploit artificially inflated prices for collectible and cosmetic items, including the Rainbow Scythe. 2. **Treasure Hunter GP Giveaway (April 2024)** – A 1B GP Treasure Hunter injection increased liquidity in the mid-tier market, spurring greater demand for high-value cosmetics. 3. **Speculation on the Scythe’s Future Value** – Many investors see the scythe as undervalued due to its discontinued status and potential for a long-term rise, leading to strategic hoarding. ### Price Prediction Over the Coming Months Given the historical cycle of value dips and recoveries, combined with current market conditions, the **Rainbow Scythe is expected to experience a slight pullback before stabilizing at higher levels**. Dupe scandals and gold influx mechanics often lead to short-term bubbles, while long-term growth is tied to low supply and collector interest. Predicted price trajectory: - **Short-term (1-2 months):** The scythe's price may see minor corrections (around **22-24M GP**) as speculative buyers exit the market post-exploit bubble. - **Mid-term (3-6 months):** Prices could steadily rebound to **30-40M GP**, supported by collector buyouts during the late 2024/early 2025 event season, where cosmetics often see higher demand. - **Long-term (1+ year):** Assuming no sudden re-releases, the scythe has the potential to grow to **50M+ GP**, barring market disruptions. Downside risks include an unexpected re-release of the scythe or prolonged GP devaluation. ### Flipping Margins The **Rainbow Scythe** can be a strong target for flipping, thanks to its high demand and relatively low GE volume. Common flipping margins are: - **Low volatility periods:** 1-3M GP margin (ideal for passive flipping). - **High volatility periods (post-updates):** Potential 3-6M GP margins, particularly during speculative buyouts. Flippers should target windows immediately after impactful economic changes, such as Treasure Hunter events or gold influxes, when demand spikes but supply briefly lags. ### Similar Items to Consider for Investment - **Lunar Equipment Overrides:** Similar discontinued Treasure Hunter items with mid-tier pricing and cosmetic value. - **Aurora Dye (Shadow/Warm):** Highly valued dye alternatives for cosmetic enthusiasts, often linked to scythe users. - **Golden Partyhat:** Another cosmetic item that shares speculative value trends and growth potential despite having longer-term supply risks. - **Shadow Gem:** A relatively recent cosmetic that mimics the scythe’s niche but remains undervalued in speculative trading. ### Seasonal Trends and Optimal Buying/Selling Windows - **Positive price seasons (buying opportunities):** - **January to May:** Pre- and post-major Treasure Hunter reward updates often trigger short-term market crashes due to competitive spending on new cosmetics. - **Post-dupe events:** Market prices for many cosmetics often stall mid-recovery, creating bargains. - **Negative price seasons (selling opportunities):** - **Holiday Seasons (November to January):** RuneScape seasonal events, particularly lucrative Treasure Hunter promo seasons, often lead to a demand rush for cosmetics for flexing. The late holiday boom typically corresponds with the scythe's cyclical price highs. - **Summer (July-August):** Major updates (e.g., new skills, expansion quests) bring wealthy veteran players, increasing demand for premium items. ### Conclusion The **Rainbow Scythe** is a promising mid-tier investment for both collectors and market speculators, with historical trends suggesting growth potential as its supply remains capped. However, the RuneScape economy is unpredictable, and events like dupes or re-releases will always skew predictions. Diversification into similar items (like Aurora Dye or Golden Partyhats) and actively monitoring major updates or Treasure Hunter promotions is key to maximizing profits.