### Summary of Obliteration Obliteration is a high-tier tier-90 Necromancy magic weapon, introduced into RuneScape 3's ecosystem alongside the *Necromancy* skill update on **August 7, 2023**. It serves as part of the "Trimmed Necromancer gear" aimed at players who wish to experiment with the newly-introduced combat mechanics. This weapon is primarily sought after due to its standout DPS potential within the Necromancy skill framework. Its rarity lies in its crafting requirements and its worth in the endgame PvM scene, where Necromancy's efficacy has frequently been balanced post-release. ### Rarity Analysis The crafting cost and difficulty of obtaining high Necromancy components (like Soul Runes, Ritual Energy) contribute to Obliteration's inherent rarity. Over time, diminishing interest in newer skill content can lower its availability on the market, even if its direct demand stabilizes. Additionally, "Trimmed" Necromancer gear inherently appeals to collectors, creating niche demand spikes. ### Price Trends and Historical Analysis #### Recorded Prices (Post-August 2023): **Notable Peaks:** - **2023-04-19/20**: Prices hit **17-19M** before peaking at **35M on 2023-03-04**, potentially due to speculative buying after high GP influx from the **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)**. - Early post-launch interest from Necromancy content drove **12.5M** prices from **April to June 2023**. **Notable Declines:** - **August to December 2023:** Rapid depreciation to ~**3M**, likely fueled by oversupply as the player base adjusted to Necromancy’s grindable nature. - **June–July 2024:** A spike to ~**8-10M** temporarily arose due to **Sanctum of Rebirth (July)** release, which increased demand for Necromancy weaponry in tough PvM content. - **Post-August 2024**: Declines resume after Necromancy hype dwindled. **Current State (August 2024):** Stabilizing around **3.5M**, suggesting short-term equilibrium likely dictated by moderate consistent demand from Necromancy PvMers, alongside reduced supply as player attention turned elsewhere. ### Price Prediction (Next Few Months) #### Factors at Play: 1. **Mining/Smithing Rework (August 2024):** Little-to-no relevance to Obliteration; GP movement here will focus on skilling materials. 2. **Pre-Holiday Effect (~October–December 2024):** Wealthier players inflate endgame gear demand (including Obliteration) around seasonal events like Black Friday sales and new TH promotions. 3. **2024 GIM Bank Duplication Bug (November 2024):** A flood of GP and unregulated item dumps may create a short-term market crash. #### Prediction: - **Short-term (Oct–Nov 2024):** Minor gains to ~**4-4.3M**, driven by pre-holiday demand. - **Mid-term (Dec 2024–Jan 2025):** Possible retracing to **2.8-3.2M**, especially if dupes inflate GP liquidity. - Longer-term stabilization near **3M** as demand for Necromancy gear tapers off with oversaturation and diminishing returns from Necromancy releases. ### Flipping Margins Flipping **Obliteration** is viable due to its relatively stable mid-level demand: 1. Current typical buy on the Grand Exchange sits near **3.4M–3.6M**, with a sell range closer to **3.7M**. 2. Margins: ~**200-300k** GP in volume trading during periods of moderate market liquidity (i.e., weekend/special event peaks). 3. Major spikes around the once-in-a-while PvM update days can yield **500k** margins with proper foresight. ### Related Items to Monitor or Invest In 1. **Undertaker (Tier 70):** - Market behaviors mirror early-game Necromancy progression. If Obliteration rises, Undertaker experiences proportional uplift. - Flip potential **1.2M–1.5M** currently. 2. **Ritual Components:** - **Error-Ridden Text, Gravitational Residue**: Integral to crafting mid/high-end Necromancy gear. Their scarcity spikes tie-in with Obliteration's demand curve. 3. **Necromancer’s Codex (Soul Split Synergy):** - Often bought alongside Obliteration for synergistic PvM builds. Invest early if patch notes tease synergy buff patches. 4. **Cryptbloom Armor Components:** - Though not a direct relation, both function in endgame PvM setups. If Obliteration demand spikes, Cryptbloom may lag slightly, creating an opportunity to profit later. ### Seasonal Outcomes **Positive Pricing Periods** - **Holiday Events (late Nov–early Jan):** Expect renewed player interest, wealth-flush GP influxes, and endgame min-maxing for bossing setups. - **Skill Competitions:** Jagex promoting Necromancy competitions or XP boosts would rejuvenate the gear-related demand. **Negative Pricing Periods** - **Post-Downgrade Announcements/Updates:** Jagex balancing gear outputs (e.g., Obliteration’s effectiveness vs carebear PvM bosses). - **Duplication Bugs (~Every 9-12 months):** Whenever faux GP ratios force larger market corrections. ### Optimized Investment Strategy - Short-term traders: Flip high-volume Obliterations during **weekends** or holiday-week peaks for 200–500k margins. - Medium-term investors: Avoid massive restocks until after expected dupe issues (~Nov 2024) settle; buy into the **Dec-Jan 2025** holiday speculative hype. - Long-term holders: Focus on acquiring other Necromancy-centric assets (**Ritual Components**, **Codex**) for broader profitability over Obliteration’s declining utility lifecycle.