### Mazcab Ability Codex Analysis #### Overview The Mazcab Ability Codex, released on **July 27, 2015**, is a consumable unlock item in RuneScape 3 that grants access to group-based abilities (Tendril abilities like Corruption Shot, Corruption Blast, etc.). These abilities are particularly effective in AoE combat situations and are highly sought after for high-level PvM encounters. The codex is obtained by trading **Reputation Points** from Raids (Beastmaster Durzag or Yakamaru) or bought from the Grand Exchange. **Rarity and Utility**: Its utility for endgame PvM (especially AoE situations in bosses such as Telos or Zuk) makes it a valuable item, but since it can be obtained consistently from Raids, it is not inherently rare. However, the bottleneck of earning Mazcab Raids Reputation and the effort required for Raids keep its price significantly high compared to other ability-related items. --- ### Price Trends and Historical Insights #### Historical Price Summary Analyzing the supplied price data: 1. There have been significant **spikes and crashes** in pricing, seemingly linked to major economic disruptions (e.g., gold inflations, dupes) and specific updates. - The **early 2023 spike to 75M** followed the **Scrimshaw dupe and mass hacks**, during which general inflation of rare items occurred due to hoarding behavior. The codex became an inflation hedge. - The **gradual decline post-August 2023**, when Max Combat with Necromancy was released, suggests shifting demand towards Necromancy-focused items, reducing interest in Mazcab abilities. - The latest **stabilized price (~28M-30M)** reflects the codex's consistent demand in PvM without direct economic disruptions this year. #### Key Influences and Correlations: 1. **Gold Duplication Events**: Gold inflations (e.g., **Jan 2023 dupe, Max Cash update May 2024**) directly inflated the price due to increased liquidity in the economy. 2. **Combat Updates**: The **Necromancy skill (Aug 2023)** caused a workflow shift in combat, reducing immediate need for legacy abilities like the ones from the Mazcab Ability Codex. 3. **Raids Popularity**: Updates like **new bosses (Sanctum of Rebirth, July 2024)** reduce Raids activity, indirectly decreasing codex supply. 4. **Treasure Hunter Changes (April 2024)**: With direct gold and rewards added to Treasure Hunter, increased liquidity may saturate demand and prevent massive price crashes. #### Price Prediction for Late 2024 to 2025: - Assuming no further major disruptions or updates directly affecting Mazcab abilities, the codex will likely hover between **27M-33M** for the next 3-6 months due to steady, ongoing PvM relevance but limited speculative interest. - If a **DPS buff meta shift** arises or new **AoE-focused bosses** are added (e.g., another Necromancy boss integrating legacy PvM), the price may spike back to **35M-40M**. - Conversely, if **alternative codices or skilling promotions** increase competition, price could drop briefly below **25M**, particularly in cases of GP saturation from Treasure Hunter promotions. --- ### Flipping Margins and Trading Insight 1. **Typical Margins**: - Historical flipping profit margins for Mazcab Ability Codex tend to range around **1%-3% per trade**, translating to **300k-900k per codex** in average periods. - During price volatility (e.g., after Treasure Hunter gold promotions), margins widen to **2%-5%,** offering **600k-1.5M** gains per flip. 2. **Market Observation**: - Short-term trades work best around **event-driven volatility;** watch for subtle spikes during Treasure Hunter GP inflations where lowball offers can succeed. --- ### Alternatives and Similar Items for Investment 1. **Hero Pass Rewards Items**: - Newly introduced items (Aug/Sep 2023 patch) catering to skillers or PvM usually spike in price within the first month due to artificial scarcity. Expect fluctuations post-Hero Pass updates. 2. **Greater Ability Codices**: - Codices such as Greater Ricochet or Greater Chain have similar PvM-driven demand but are more volatile, ideal for traders skilled at timing patch-related updates. 3. **Raids-Related Materials**: - Items like **Raids armor upgrades** (Teralith, Primeval energy components) or Seren Godbow components generally correlate with Mazcab activity. Buying during **non-Raids boss hype** leads to profit once Raids regain popularity. --- ### Seasonal Price Factors 1. **Positive Trends**: - **Spring (Feb-May)**: As PvM content typically dominates update schedules during this time, there is an uptick in demand. Regular increases in patch frequency contribute to speculative spikes for combat-oriented items. - **Late Summer (Jul-Aug)**: Updates tied to bosses (e.g., **2024’s Sanctum of Rebirth**) result in heightened PvM activity, improving demand for items such as the codex. 2. **Negative Trends**: - **Holiday GPs (Nov-Dec)**: Treasure Hunter events releasing direct gold or high-value rares cause broad market inflation and devaluation of mid-tier items like the codex. - **Post-PvM Patch Stagnation (Sep-Oct)**: Items tied to older boss mechanics tend to stagnate as new metas emerge. --- ### Final Recommendations - **Buy Zones**: Aim for purchases around **Treasure Hunter GP events** or periods of PvM update anticipation, where demand dips unpredictably. - **Hold Items**: Complement Mazcab Codex with materials tied to AoE combat, such as **Rune Pouch upgrades** or **Greater Chain Codex**, which historically capitalize on update-driven spikes. - **Exit Targets**: Sell when spikes reach or exceed **35M**, particularly during PvM-centric updates or Treasure Hunter scarcity windows. This strategy offers a balanced approach for both short-term flips and medium-term investments tied to game updates.