### **Item Analysis: Inverted Divination Skillcape (120)** #### **Summary, Release, and Rarity** The Inverted Divination Skillcape (120) is a cosmetic variation of the traditional Divination 120 Skillcape introduced as part of the "Golden Cape Hunt" during RuneScape's 2022 20th Anniversary celebrations (originally available between September 12, 2022, and October 3, 2022). It could only be unlocked via Treasure Hunter by achieving level 120 Divination *and* obtaining the inverted token before the event ended. Its exclusivity comes from its limited availability paired with the level 120 requirement—making it a true status symbol in the RuneScape economy. No re-releases have occurred as of late 2024, enhancing its rarity. Market supply is constrained, as no consistent source exists to introduce new tokens into circulation. #### **Historical Price Trends and Insights** The item’s price history reveals several key patterns tied to broader RuneScape economic trends: 1. **Initial Surge (November 2022 - December 2022)** The inverted cape began trading at astronomical highs (e.g., 12B GP on November 26, 2022). This spike coincided with the demand for new cosmetics during the Golden Cape Hunt and RuneScape's 20th Anniversary hype. However, prices dropped sharply later as short-term cosmetic speculators exited the market. 2. **Price Deflation (January 2023)** A series of drastic GP influx events (Scrimshaw dupe and 2023 hacks) destabilized the economy, increasing the overall “buying power” with inflated GP pools. However, rapid inflation saw assets repriced downward as economic confidence wavered. This explains the drop to ~4-5B GP in January 2023. 3. **Stabilization (Mid-2023)** Post-patch removal of certain exploits and the Necromancy update in August 2023 helped stabilize niche cosmetic markets, and historical trade logs for the cape showed modest recoveries, reaching back around 6B in some instances. 4. **Future Speculation (Late 2024)** The release of speculative cosmetics like the Black Partyhat in December 2023 and the increasing focus on high-end Treasure Hunter cosmetics (e.g., Halloween capes in 2024) could draw more attention to the Inverted 120 Cape series. However, uncertainty around GP injection events (notably the Max Cash update exploit) may temper confidence. #### **Price Prediction** Considering these factors: - **Short-term (Late 2024 - Q1 2025):** **5.5B-6.5B GP range.** Holiday events like Christmas and post-holiday trading often draw speculative investment in high-tier cosmetics. Buyers seeking long-term passive profit will also push prices slightly upward. - **Mid-term (Q2-Q3 2025):** **5.0B-6.0B GP range.** Summer months historically see declining engagement in item flipping, and past updates involving GP exploits have caused sharper price depressions in May-June. Price spikes will largely depend on re-releases or unique updates (e.g., potential skill reworks like Divination itself) that increase demand. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The typical flipping margin for the Inverted Divination Skillcape (120) oscillates between **150M-400M GP per trade**: - On lower-confidence days (e.g., during scamming/exploit news or when cash liquidity tightens), margins are closer to 150M GP. - Around holidays or game updates affecting collectibles, margins widen to 400M GP or more as opportunistic investors bulk-buy for future sales. Flipping the cape rewards patience due to its low market activity. Buyers must time their entries after sudden seller cashouts but before high-effort speculative runs. --- ### **Similar Items to Consider Buying** If the Inverted Divination Skillcape interests you, the following items have comparable demand trends and market behaviors: 1. **Other Inverted Skillcapes (120):** - Most importantly, Inverted *RuneCrafting* or *Invention*, which are similarly rare due to their challenging XP requirements and low profitability as skills. 2. **Black Partyhat (December 2023 release):** Its capped supply and aesthetic niche make it a high-profile investment target. Its price action will mirror the inverted 120 capes but with higher volatility. 3. **Holiday Event Rares (Golden Partyhat, Green Santa Hat):** While traditionally stable due to collector demand, their prices escalate disproportionately during scarcity-driven speculation cycles. --- ### **Seasonal Market Outcomes** RuneScape's economy cycles through predictable demand periods that directly affect high-value cosmetics like the Inverted Divination Skillcape: #### **Positive Seasonal Periods for Price Growth** 1. **December - January:** Holiday events and Treasure Hunter promotions inject energy into the economy while encouraging speculative investment in rares. 2. **Post-Major Updates:** Game-changing updates like skill reworks (e.g., Mining and Smithing) boost historical cosmetic value related to reworked skills. #### **Negative Seasonal Periods for Price Decline** 1. **May - July (“Summer Slump”):** Player activity dips, trading volumes diminish, and high-value items often stall or decline temporarily. 2. **Post-Duplication Exploits (e.g., Max Cash update):** Unexpected GP floods dilute prices for all high-tier items, even those as exclusive as the inverted capes. --- ### **Conclusion** The Inverted Divination Skillcape (120) remains one of the most reliable investments for collectors, especially for flipping and passive growth. However, out-of-game economic shocks or updates targeting treasure-hunt cosmetics could drastically alter its valuation. Paired investments in inverted capes and prestige rares (like the Black Partyhat) can further safeguard profits. Seasonal strategies are critical, with December-January offering the best growth windows and mid-summer opening opportunity-buying scenarios.