### **Inverted Defence Skillcape (120) - Deep Analysis** #### **Summary and Rarity** The Inverted Defence Skillcape (120) is an alternate, recolored version of the standard Defence 120 skillcape, introduced during limited-time events in RuneScape 3. Players earn this by completing specific event objectives—such as the Fresh Start Worlds (FSW) campaign—or by retroactively transforming their 120 capes using event tokens. The item gained traction for its exclusivity and visual prestige, appealing to collectors and high-end merchants. Released during the **Fresh Start Worlds (FSW)** initiative on **September 22, 2022**, inverted cape tokens were obtainable via competitive rankings or milestone achievements exclusive to that mode. The inherent rarity and time-gated availability make inverted skillcapes some of the most sought-after vanity items. This cape’s **rarity stems not only from limited access but also due to barriers to entry (significant effort in qualifying events) and the intrinsic defensive-centric theme, which is visually striking but appeals less broadly than capes like Attack or Strength.** #### **Price History and Trends** The price history suggests immense volatility for the cape, driven by low supply, speculative flipping, and overarching RuneScape economy dynamics. Price movements are summarized as follows: 1. **Initial Price Spikes (December 2022 - January 2023):** - Prices surged due to hype after FSW concluded and tokens became tradeable. - Peaks, like **700M (December 24, 2022)**, coincide with rising holiday engagement as wealthier players participated in social events such as giveaways or trades. - A post-holiday correction saw **sharp dips** (down to **240M on January 9, 2023**) as demand stabilized. 2. **Speculative Frenzy (February 2023):** - February saw resurgence, with prices jumping to **600M (Feb 1, 2023)**. This correlates heavily with: - **Mass player hacks** increasing liquidity deficits in the market. - Defensive investors seeking low-volume, high-value items to park GP. 3. **Recent Dynamics:** - Data for 2024 indicates mild stagnation in mid-year post-Easter, suggesting economic fatigue and gradual decline in inverted cape trading, barring new scarcity events. #### **Economic Influences** - **Macro Events:** Rollbacks and dupes increased gold flow drastically (e.g., January 2021 rollback). This gold inflation inflated prices across all high-value collectibles like the inverted capes. - **System Buffs/Nerfs:** Patches like the **Max Combat Level Update (August 2023)** boosted PvM-focused collectibles but rendered defensive-skewing items like the cape less desirable to the broader community. - **Gold Sinks Failures:** Updates granting raw GP rewards (e.g., April 2024 Treasure Hunter GP injection) diluted player-driven investment incentives. ### **Price Prediction for the Next Few Months (Late 2024 - Early 2025)** Based on historical trends, the future price trajectory for the Inverted Defence Skillcape (120) seems conservative but retains potential for sharp, isolated spikes. **Near-term Prediction:** 1. **Mid to Late Q4 2024:** Prices will experience a flatline or mild reduction (~420M-470M) due to liquidity cooling post Black Partyhat and pre-holiday preparations. Wealthier investors may strategically move towards holiday-centric rares for better seasonal turnover. 2. **Q1 2025 Seasonal Boost:** March-April introduces new spring updates, where inverted cape values may spike back to **500M+**, driven by: - Increased merchant activity after the **Easter holiday period**. - Reintroduction or attention towards Fresh Start Worlds-style gameplay. **Key Risk Factors:** Dupes, unpredictable gold injections, or unexpectedly prestigious updates could pummel prices short-term. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Typical flipping margins for the Inverted Defence Skillcape hover between **20-40M per transaction**, contingent upon: 1. Seasonal supply flows from mergers/offloading. 2. Player susceptibility during major content releases (e.g., with new bosses or PvM strategies enticing defenses). 3. Luxury item volatility based on singular purchases in Small Run Events. #### Average Buy/Sell Cycles - **Purchase Range:** You can normally acquire this cape at **400M-420M** during calm periods (post-October 2024). - **Sell Range:** Typical sell margins stabilize around **470M-530M**, creating over **10-20% margins** easily in fragmented markets. **Optimal timeframes:** Seek Thursdays (pre-weekend flipping) or immediately post-developer/weekly streams. --- ### **Comparable Investment Items** If flipping the Inverted Defence Skillcape (120) feels inconsistent, diversify into items with overlapping patterns of rarity and demand: 1. **Inverted Strength or Attack Capes (120):** - Similar seasonal trends but with less defensive niche vulnerability. 2. **Black Partyhat:** - Released December 2023, with ongoing speculative hype. Perfect for high GP trading. 3. **Shadow Gemstone Weapons:** - Introduced in recent updates (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth**) with dual functional & prestige opportunities. --- ### **Seasonal Influence on Prices** 1. **Positive Seasons:** - **Holidays (December), Easter (March-April):** Larger playerbase online, creating demand arbitrages. - **Start of Summer (June):** Surge in general trading as collectors prepare wealth consolidation. 2. **Negative Seasons:** - **Post-Dupe Corrections (May-August):** Economic dips after nerfs or influx of duplicate currencies. - **End-Year Overload (October-November):** Players focus on high-tier rares (e.g. Santa Hats, Christmas Cracker). #### **Final Takeaway:** The Inverted Defence Skillcape (120) remains a niche collectible with decent flipping margins in specific market conditions. Its value will parallel its availability and rarity but thrives during cycles of collector resurgence rather than PvM-driven dominance.