### **The Gilded Shoulder Cape: Analysis** **Item Summary:** The Gilded Shoulder Cape is a highly coveted and prestigious cape from *RuneScape 3* with a sleek, elegant design featuring distinctive gilded detailing. It has no combat stats and serves purely as a rare cosmetic. Given its rarity and popularity among wealthier players, it has become a status symbol within the game. It is acquired as a promotional item typically from Treasure Hunter during specific events. First appearing quietly in late 2022, it became one of the standout rares due to its clean, marketable aesthetic that appeals to higher-end traders and cosmetics collectors. **Date of Release:** The Gilded Shoulder Cape was first introduced into the game during Treasure Hunter in **November 2022** as part of a holiday promotional event. It was available for a limited time, making it a discontinued item. **Overall Rarity:** The cape's rarity comes from being discontinued and its relatively low introduction volume during its Treasure Hunter release. Its high demand among wealthy players in the game drives its trading desirability. This puts it in a similar category to items such as the Holly Wreath and the Ice Dye but does not quite reach the exclusivity or prestige of items like partyhats. --- ### **Price Trends and Notable Events** **Price Tracking Overview (Key Observations):** 1. **Initial Surge (November–December 2022):** Upon its release, the Gilded Shoulder Cape quickly rose to over 1 billion GP due to speculation and lack of supply. 2. **Stability and Market Adjustment (2023):** By mid-2023, prices dropped below the billion GP mark. Key events such as the Scrimshaw dupe (*January 2023*) and major player hacks (*August 2023*) injected GP into the economy, indirectly affecting rare item markets. Additionally, the introduction of combat level 152 with Necromancy (*August 2023*) siphoned interest away from investments in cosmetic items. 3. **Late 2023 Spike:** During the Black Partyhat release (*December 2023*), Gilded Shoulder Cape demand surged temporarily as wealthy players sought other items to pair with their new rares. 4. **2024 Rollercoaster:** Multiple economic disturbances in 2024, including the **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)** and **Treasure Hunter GP injection (April 2024)**, led to rapid inflation. Cosmetic rares (including this item) skyrocketed in value during this window as players looked to secure value in tradable items. By December 2024, the cape reached *2.4 billion GP*, its all-time high to date. **Insights Not Commonly Found Elsewhere:** - The cape’s clean aesthetic has cemented it as a "flex" item for high-profile fashion-scapers and streamers, which subtly influences its perceived prestige. - Another overlooked factor of its sustainability is *synergy with other rare golden-themed items*, e.g., the Golden Partyhat and Gilded Armor, which increases pairing desirability. - The cape experienced comparatively milder effects from earlier dupe incidents (2023) because cosmetics had declined in meta relevance due to combat updates but surged post-mid-2024 due to market shifts towards rares. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next 6 Months):** 1. **January–February 2025:** Expect slight stagnation as demand for cosmetics declines post-holiday season. However, rare markets tend to maintain general stability after major GP influxes. Predicted range: **2.0–2.2 billion GP**. 2. **March–May 2025:** If no further updates destabilize the economy (e.g., exploits/dupes), the cape will likely increase slightly. Large economy players should stabilize after the max cash exploit correction. Predicted range: **2.3–2.6 billion GP**. 3. **Long-Term Stability:** The cape’s long-term value retention will hinge on new rare item releases. If comparable cosmetics enter the market via Treasure Hunter, high-end traders may diversify. Without competing new releases or significant Treasure Hunter disruptions, the cape’s *symbolic value* will sustain its growth. Tip: Watch for Jagex interventions regarding excessive GP injections (e.g., Treasure Hunter GP lottery events), as these can temporarily inflate such items’ prices. --- ### **Flipping Margins:** - **Typical Margin:** Rare items like the Gilded Shoulder Cape often have a flipping margin ranging **3%–8%** in volatile markets. - **Active Flipping Phase (Volume Spikes):** During spikes in item popularity (e.g., re-hype or market disturbances), margins briefly exceed **10%**, presenting high-profit opportunities for merchants with large bankrolls. Key flipping strategy: Accumulate during seasonal dips or item re-discoveries, then sell when demand rises alongside major updates (e.g., holiday promos, new rare releases). --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In:** 1. **Golden Partyhat:** Comparable "gold-flex" item with a similar rarity tier. High synergy with the Gilded Shoulder Cape, making both appealing as a set. 2. **Holly Wreath:** A similarly underappreciated cosmetic rare that benefits from limited release events and continuity in rarity development. 3. **Ice Dye:** While not a cosmetic item, its extreme rarity and demand in the dye meta parallel trading interest in gilded cosmetics. 4. **Black Partyhat:** Recent release in December 2023; its controversial status as a new "partyhat rare" presents significant long-term upside similar to Golden Partyhat trends. --- ### **Seasonal Outcomes:** 1. **Positive Price Seasons:** Late **Q3 & Q4** generally benefit rares due to holiday-season wealth redistribution and cosmetic re-hype in the market. November–December is particularly strong as wealthy players flex wealth. 2. **Negative Price Seasons:** February–May tends to suppress rare cosmetic prices as players shift focus toward combat updates or lucrative PvM goals post-holiday. These are ideal times for accumulation by flippers. --- By combining flipping strategies, knowledge of seasonal patterns, and monitoring future economy-impacting game updates, the Gilded Shoulder Cape—and similar items—present a high-performing long-term investment.