### **Item Overview: OG Gem Cape Token** The **OG Gem Cape Token** is a cosmetic voucher released during **2021**, providing players with a visually striking cape that flaunts gem-like accents. It was originally available via promotional Treasure Hunter events, catapulting its desirability due to its exclusivity and aesthetic value. The token became a collector's item among RuneScape’s elite due to its origin in Treasure Hunter—a common mechanic with a volatile secondary market impact. #### **Release Date & Rarity** The token was released in **late 2020 to early 2021**, quickly gaining value due to its rarity in Treasure Hunter drops. It is considered a **"low-quantity" Treasure Hunter reward token**, meaning its creation rate was scarce relative to other cosmetics. By the time the Treasure Hunter promotion ended, the market already deemed it a "prestigious" item within RuneScape's economy, primarily circulated among wealthy merchants and collectors. #### **Market Rarity** What makes this item rare is not only the limited distribution but also the consistent supply loss as players redeem the token. Once turned into the physical **Gem Cape** cosmetic override, the token is destroyed, permanently shrinking the number in circulation. The OG Gem Cape Token is an **"ultra-rare-tier" collectible** with declining availability over time. --- ### **Price Analysis and Prediction** ### **Historical Price Trend Overview** - **2021:** Priced in the **billions** early after release, peaking at **6.35B GP on May 7, 2021**, due to the influx of wealth from the rollback and recovery dupes. - **2022–2023:** Dropped significantly, stabilizing between **65M–100M GP**, impacted by: - The **Duel Arena’s removal** (January 2022) disrupted the high-spending PvP crowd that inflated rare-token prices. - Inflated supply redistributions during dips in bond prices and Fresh Start Worlds. - **2024:** Saw sharp upward trends after August 2023’s Necromancy update and recent mining changes, pushing the value to near **200M GP (August 2024)**. #### **Major Influential Events** - **2021–2022 Dupes:** Duplication of GP and items (rollback dupe, recovery dupe) caused token prices to skyrocket in earlier months. However, subsequent supply stabilization caused heavy devaluation between late 2021 and early 2022. - **Necromancy Update (August 2023):** Overhauled the economy as players hoarded wealth for the max combat level, inadvertently driving renewed interest in prestigious cosmetics like the OG Gem Cape. - **Max Cash and GIM Dupes (May 2024, November 2024):** Market instability following exploits led to capital relocation into safer assets, such as collectibles, spiking demand for OG Gem Cape Tokens. #### **Current Market Mood** At **193M GP (August 2024)**, the item has rebounded significantly due to reduced circulation and the increased collector interest amidst volatile updates. Confidence in its rarity and status as a gold sink is triggering renewed demand, particularly as high-GP players avoid more volatile investments (e.g., discontinued holiday items). #### **Price Prediction (Next 6 Months)** **Short-Term:** Prices will likely hover between **175M and 210M GP** through **late 2024**, driven by: - **Bond Price Increase (June 2024):** Fewer bonds reduce buyable wealth injections, making collectors push value on rare items harder. - **Upcoming Banking Exploits (November 2024):** Anticipation of another duping event could drive wealth into collectibles. **Medium-Term:** By **early 2025**, prices may see a sharp uptick, trending towards **250M–280M GP** if: - The GIM bug and dupe markets drive further movement into safer investments. - Jagex refrains from releasing similar new Treasure Hunter cosmetic rewards. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** The OG Gem Cape Token consistently yields **5-10M margins per flip** since its trading price fluctuates on small demand-supply shifts. Volatility increases during game patches or world events, with faster trades on **update release days** offering margins as high as **20M per flip**. **Key Strategies for Flipping:** - **Timing Fluctuations:** Monitor Treasure Hunter promotions and any updates likely to inject bonus GP into the economy. - **Off-Peak Buying:** Purchase during the post-event "dumping phase," typically 7–10 days after Treasure Hunter promotions or bugs impact markets. - **Manual World-Trading:** Negotiate trades outside the Grand Exchange to achieve higher profits (due to collectors willing to overpay). --- ### **Similar Items to Watch** 1. **Rainbow's End Token:** This cosmetic item shares the limited Treasure Hunter availability and high-status appeal of the OG Gem Cape. Prices trend alongside fluctuating GP wealth injections. 2. **Protean/Prismatic Dye Tokens:** Tradeable dyes influence high-value market behavior and are affected by Treasure Hunter cycles and promotions. 3. **Discontinued Holiday Items:** While more volatile, items like the **Black Partyhat (released December 2023)** offer long-term safety nets for cosmetic collectors. --- ### **Seasonal Data Insights** - **Positive Trends:** Prices spike during **October–December** due to major updates (e.g., Black Partyhat release in 2023) and PvM-focused expansions (e.g., Necromancy). - **Negative Trends:** Expect dips during farmable Treasure Hunter promotions (e.g., **summer months**) when item supply temporarily increases. ### **Final Advice** Position yourself to invest when GP enters moments of instability (e.g., after duping events or Treasure Hunter expansions). Accumulate while under 200M GP, and sell strategically during spikes tied to new content updates. Diversify holdings into comparable high-end tradables like dyes and holiday rares for stability.