### **Alchemical Onyx - Overview and Rarity** The Alchemical Onyx is a transformative crafting material introduced on **November 27, 2017**, as part of the addition of Alchemical Hydrix and Alchemical Onyx jewelry. Obtained through **Alchemy Machines** in a Player-Owned Farm or by disassembling rare-tier components via invention trades like 50 Fortunate Components, it serves as a keystone for crafting powerful utility jewelry such as the **Luck of the Dwarves, Grace of the Elves, and Ingenuity of Humans.** Its resource bottleneck—Fortunate Components—ensures high scarcity, as these components are primarily gained from clue scroll rewards. This makes it inherently tied to clue scroll activity and Treasure Trail rewars, creating a directly fluctuating rarity tied to those markets. Another notable limiting factor is the potential GP sink, which discourages mass production during periods of economic instability. Currently, the price trend for the Alchemical Onyx is defined by both seasonal and update-driven fluctuations. It hovers as a staple in utility jewelry manufacturing, which holds intrinsic demand across PvM, **Skilling**, and **portable bank functions**. --- ### **Trends and Price Prediction** Using your data, here are major price events and trends tied to updates and contextual analysis of fluctuations in value: 1. **Initial Historical Trends**: Prices between 2021 and early 2022 fluctuated. Large price impacts were observed around economic shocks, such as the **Rollback Dupe (January 2021)** and subsequent **Recovery Dupe (July 2021)**. The mass influx of gold caused Alchemical Onyx to spike temporarily in raw costs alongside inflation, but this quickly plateaued. 2. **Positive Drivers** - **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022):** Economic resets drove increased demand for high-value items useful in rebuilding wealth. Elevated activity in clue scrolls overall drove prices higher; peaks around **85M (October 2022)** correlate strongly with this and Wilderness PvP removal. - **Necromancy Update (August 2023):** Skill-focused updates elevate jewelry demand, e.g., **Luck of the Dwarves for Necromancy resource bankrolls**. Additionally, Necromancy bosses spiked **Grace of the Elves’ Eternal teleport** effects. - **Combat Rework (March 2024):** Renewed focus on meta-shifting mechanics elevated the use of Ingenuity of Humans for PvM builds. 3. **Negative Impacts** - **Dupe Exploits:** January 2023’s **Scrimshaw dupe** and July 2023 **Red Portal Bugs** had dramatic effects on GP and rares while creating price dips (~68-75M). Trillions worth of GP perpetuated instability. - **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024):** Severely destabilized GP flow by adding liquidity, forcing Alchemical Onyx prices back down after peaks of activity (~75M in August 2024 drops to <71M by November 2024). 4. **Prediction Through Late 2024-Early 2025**: Given the observed data, we can reasonably conclude prices will continue a **seasonal climb** into **holiday PVM peaks** (November-December), followed by relative depreciation in Q1 2025 due to post-holiday economic cooldowns. Prices are likely to range **65-78M GP** barring incident-driven inflation (e.g., dupe or discontinued item spikes). Longer-term stability at **70M GP+** is probable. --- ### **Optimal Flipping Margins** Due to supply bottlenecks and purchasing volatility in high-tier materials like Fortunate Components, the effective flipping margin for Alchemical Onyx will frequently vary **1-5M GP**. Typical buy windows occur immediately after Treasure Trail events or Treasure Hunter key expansions, when market activity floods with Fortunate-tier clue scroll rewards. Selling peaks align with major updates (e.g., bossing mechanics, new skilling rotations). - **Buy Target:** ~70,000,000 GP or lower during surplus phases. - **Sell Target:** ~75,000,000 GP or higher before predictable PvM or utility crafting booms. **Key Flipping Advice:** Balance short-term trades with careful monitoring of clue scroll activity on Treasure Hunter or Twitch Prime promo days, as these tend to provide consistent opportunities to undercut stale supply. --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** Alchemical Onyx pricing is deeply tied to core clue scroll components and utility-focused PvM upgrades. Diversify into: 1. **Alchemical Hydrix:** Crafted from rare Hydrix gems (via Death Note tools), it provides a similar demand cycle for meta-tier products (e.g., Essence of Finality amulet). Generally experiences parallel trends while peaking higher during bossing releases. 2. **Portables or PVM Enhancers:** Invest in Fortunate Components or artifacts that assist clue scroll profit drivers or niche user base highlight. --- ### **Seasonal Behavior: Optimizing Outcomes** Preparatory pricing: - **Positive Seasons:** - **December-January Holiday Spend/Boss Release Windows:** Adventurer-heavy grind pushes crafting costs and onyx-derived utility purchases to climb. - **Major Necromancy-like launches (2025 Campaign):** If 3-4 skill-specialist year gain Economical /Tw Treasury Capt.-wonx anticipated.TRLO